Tag: NC-Gov

• FL-Sen: Another sign that the wheels are falling off the Marco Rubio bus: he’s cutting back on senior staff. His campaign manager, Brian Seitchik, will be off the payroll next week, and his fundraiser, Ann Herberger, is also gone. About the changes, Rubio said, “This is not a purge or anything, quite the contrary.” In other words, they’re probably out of money.

• NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne picked up a key backer, as the conservative base continues to look for an alternative to the may-be-a-RINO Kelly Ayotte. Former State Rep. Maureen Mooney, who was John McCain’s liaision to NH conservatives during the 2008 primary campaign, has said she’s backing Lamontagne, saying he’s a “principled and experienced conservative.”

• SC-Sen, SC-01: Interesting rumblings out of the Palmetto State: now that Jim DeMint has turned himself into Public Enemy #1 in the last few weeks, all of a sudden people sound interested in challenging him. State Senator Brad Hutto was in Washington meeting with the DSCC about the race; Hutto has been looking for a chance to move up, starting with the 2010 governor’s race, but deferred to friend and state Sen. Vincent Shaheen on that one. Attorney Ashley Cooper (a former Fritz Hollings aide) is reportedly also interested in taking on DeMint, or also in running in the 1st, where Rep. Henry Brown barely won last year.

• NC-Gov: Civitas, a local Republican pollster, stops to gawk at the Bev Perdue trainwreck, finding that her approval is at 30/44 and that right now only 26% would vote to re-elect her. They also look all the way ahead to 2012 and find that Republican Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory would win a rematch, 46-32.

• MN-06: Independence Party 2008 candidate Bob Anderson, whose 10% of the vote may have tipped the balance to Rep. Michele Bachmann last year, says that he may make another run in 2010. (Don’t forget that while Elwyn Tinklenberg received the IP’s endorsment in 2008, Minnesota doesn’t allow fusion voting with candidates running on multiple ballot lines, so Anderson went ahead and ran in the primary, winning it and getting the IP nod for the general. Our best hope here may be for Minnesota to follow Oregon’s recent lead and legalize fusion voting.)

• NY-23: In the 23rd, with Darrel Aubertine out (and New York Senate fans heaving a sigh of relief), the Dems still seem to be casting about for a replacement. Yesterday evening was the extended deadline for receiving applications, and some of the remaining serious contenders still haven’t applied. Dan French, a lawyer and former Daniel Moynihan aide, and former NY-23 candidate Robert Johnson seemed to have not been planning to run (but contingent on Aubertine running), and said yesterday that they were interested but would have to have the requisite talk with their families first. (So do the Dems extend the deadline again? That remains to be seen.) 2008 candidate Michael Oot has already submitted his application, though. Another name for the Conservative Party nom has surfaced: “locally famous” conservative activist Jon Alvarez, who is currently serving in Iraq.

• CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night’s special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It’s a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I’m wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer “that Jew” when he couldn’t think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as “this new minority judge.” Don’t confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who’s the one who thought you should “get shots” before going down to southeast Arkansas.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk — who’s had some past problems with the space-time continuum — has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he’s been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can’t count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood’s political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won’t run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue’s job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let’s just say we should be glad she isn’t up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that’s the worst individual performance of anyone they’ve polled this year except for Roland Burris!

• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can’t really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle’s tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn’t been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He’s joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that’s been linked to the teabagging movement) on their “Patients First Tour” in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit ‘eject,’ he’s starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he’ll announce his campaign plans for “statewide office,” without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor’s race. Does Ohio have a statewide “dogcatcher” position?

• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

SurveyUSA is out with a new round of North Carolina polls, and the results look pretty similar to other recent polls (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/18-20 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 50 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (45)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (43)

Pat McCrory (R): 47 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

McCain leads Obama by a single point here, 49-48, but turnout will determine it all. Among those who have already voted (57% of the sample), Hagan leads Dole by 58-39, Perdue leads McCrory by 55-41, and Obama leads McCain by 56-41.

A Hagan win seems like a safe bet right now (and how sweet that is, really), but the Presidential and Gubernatorial races seem set to come down to every last vote.

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 49 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 48 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 2 (5)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

The same North Carolina PPP sample that showed Kay Hagan administering the coup de grace to Elizabeth Dole (and a neck-and-neck race in the NC presidential race) also includes the governor’s race and the rest of the Council of State. Perdue has led in most polls for the last few weeks, but this final poll sees a closer margin as undecideds finally commit; both candidates’ numbers have gone up, but McCrory has gained faster (seemingly helped along by a plunge in Libertarian Michael Munger’s support). With the Washington governor’s race close but seemingly frozen in place, this will be the gubernatorial race to watch tomorrow.

Five Council of State races are also polled; it’s a mixed bag, although with a possible pickup at Auditor:

Lt. Governor: Walter Dalton (D) 49, Robert Pittenger (R) 41

Insurance Comm.: Wayne Goodwin (D) 47, John Odom (R) 41

Auditor: Beth Wood (D) 48, Leslie Merritt (R-inc) 46

Agriculture Comm.: Steve Troxler (R-inc) 51, Ronnie Ansley (D) 43

Labor Comm.: Cherie Berry (R-inc) 51, Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44

Along the lines of our New Hampshire compendium of polls, there’s so much new North Carolina material out today that we’re just going to give it to you in condensed form. What are the takeaways? The governor’s race is still too close to call but may be shading toward Perdue, while on the Senate side, it’s time for the Republicans to start practicing saying “Senator Godless.”

Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

Hagan 50 (49), Dole 45 (45)

Perdue 49 (48), McCrory 44 (43)

CNN:

Hagan 53, Dole 44

Elon:

Hagan 44 (37), Dole 37 (35)

Perdue 40 (33), McCrory 40 (37)

Civitas (R):

Hagan 45 (44), Dole 43 (41)

Perdue 45 (43), McCrory 43 (43)

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Perdue 47%

McCrory 44%

Munger 5%

undecided 4%

Bev Perdue leads the latest PPP poll for the 4th straight week.

The 5% Munger voters are also breaking for Obama 54-23.

In the other statewide races included in this poll:

Sec of State

Marshall (D-Inc) 48

Sawyer (R) 39

13% undecided

Auditor

Wood (D) 44

Merritt (R-Inc) 41

15% undecided

Sec of Agriculture

Aisley (D) 41

Troxler (R-Inc) 46

13% undecided

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (45)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP snapshot of the North Carolina governor’s race gives Bev Perdue a bit more breathing room. While PPP has generally been the most favorable pollster to Perdue, remember that they had her down by 3 at the start of the month. It seems like some of Obama’s momentum is finally transferring to Perdue, though, as PPP observes that she’s now leading among the under-30 crowd by 55-33; in previous polls, she had lagged Obama and Hagan in the young demo.

UPDATE: Civitas (R) also released governor’s race data today; Perdue and McCrory are tied at 43 each (last month, McCrory led 43-41). That’s sort of good news, too, as Civitas tends to be more favorable to McCrory and Perdue hasn’t led in a Civitas poll since August.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 36

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Man, this Indiana race is a tease. Thompson will occasionally pop up within the margin of error, and then the next poll will always be something like this one. (PPP says Thompson’s problems start with her pulling in only 64% of Democrats.) This poll, however, isn’t much worse than the overall Pollster composite, which is now at 52-37. Bear in mind this is the same sample that just gave Obama a 48-46 edge in freakin’ Indiana, so coattails aren’t helping JLT at all.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (42)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (48)

Other: 3

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K’s September poll looked like an outlier at the time (especially considering the 55-38 McCain lead in the same poll), but this one looks about right.

Hagan posts a 55-35 favorable rating, while Dole is stuck at 50-43 — not as terrible as other incumbents we’ve seen this year, but she’s still being outpaced by Hagan.

In the gubernatorial race, Markos reports a 48-43 lead for Pat McCrory, but the crosstabs seem wildly mixed up — it looks like the top lines were accidentally swapped, meaning that Democrat Bev Perdue would have the 48-43 lead.

Bonus finding: Obama noses McCain by 46-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE: PPP’s Tom Jensen points out some big issues with the poll’s sample.

LATE UPDATE: R2K pollster Del Ali writes SSP to inform us that the top lines were indeed switched up by accident, meaning that Perdue has a five-point lead in this poll.

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (48)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has been noticeably friendlier to Dole than most other pollsters in this state, and this release is no exception — it’s the first poll in several weeks to give Dole an edge (albeit an extremely marginal one). The important thing to note is the trend line, and it’s favoring Hagan.

NC-Gov:

Bev Perdue (D): 45 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 46 (49)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

No surprise: this race is extremely close. A PPP poll released earlier today gave Perdue a 3-point lead, so either result is plausible.

And in the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 49-46, that’s down from the ridiculous 58-38 lead that McCain posted in SUSA’s September poll.

PPP (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/28-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (5)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

After losing her lead in PPP’s poll last week (the pollster who has usually been most favorable to her), Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue slips back into the lead in the race for North Carolina’s open gubernatorial seat. We could be seeing more lifting of all Democratic boats in the wake of financial chaos (especially the takeover of NC-based Wachovia). Or, bearing in mind that this same sample gave Obama a 6-point lead and Kay Hagan a jaw-dropping 9-point lead, PPP might have had a particularly Dem-favorable sample this week.

PPP also polled some of the races for North Carolina’s Council of State. Democrats Beth Wood and Elaine Marshall lead their races for Auditor and Secretary of State, respectively, by rather comfortable margins, while Ronnie Ansley trails Republican Steve Troxler by 2 in the Ag Commissioner race.