SSP Daily Digest: 4/21 (Morning Edition)

  • CA-Sen: Just a day after President Obama did three fundraisers for her campaign, Sen. Barbara Boxer says she expects the POTUS to be back next month for another event in San Francisco.
  • FL-Sen: The US Attorney’s Office, the FBI and the IRS are all investigating the possible misuse of credit cards by state Republican Party officials – a case which has already led to the indictment of former House Speaker Ray Sansom. In a separate investigation, the IRS is looking at Marco Rubio’s tax records to see if he misused his party credit cards for personal expenses. Meanwhile, state Rep. Tom Grady becomes the latest Charlie Crist ally to pull away from the campaign.
  • PA-Sen: PoliticsPA says that, according to a source, Joe Sestak’s week-long TV ad buy is “worth” $930,000. It’s not clear to me whether that’s how much Sestak is actually spending, though – it’s possible to lock in lower rates by reserving time in advance, which his campaign may have done here (thus inflating the “worth” of the buy). Meanwhile, in an email to supporters, Sestak is decrying Arlen Specter’s attacks on his service in the Navy as “Swift Boat-like.”
  • ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Libby Mitchell (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Libby Mitchell (D): 36

    Steve Rowe (D): 16

    Pat McGowan (D): 13

    John Richardson (D): 4

    Rosa Scarcelli (D): 3

    (MoE: ±4%)

    If these names – all of whom are running in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary – aren’t familiar to you, follow the link to the Hotline for some background details.

  • MN-Gov: Dem Matt Entenza is going up on the air with TV and radio ads after the DFL’s statewide convention this weekend – but of course, no word on the size of the buy. Speaking of the convention, things are about to either get very interesting or a lot simpler in the MN gubernatorial race. Entenza and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who can both self-fund, are both saying they’ll fight on through the primary, while the two apparent frontrunners, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, are pledging to abide by the convention’s endorsement.
  • AL-05: Notorious turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith is still sitting on $20K that various Democratic lawmakers have given him, supposedly because they haven’t asked for it back. This includes money from Rahm Emanuel, Nydia Velazquez, Rosa DeLauro and the retiring Bart Gordon, among others. Gordon, for what can only be bizarre, unspecified reasons, isn’t asking for his money back. Rahm, since he’s serving in the White House, won’t make a formal request, but twists the knife, saying “Whether the contribution is returned or not will be left up to Rep. Griffith’s conscience.” As for the rest of you dudes, DEMAND YOUR MONEY BACK!
  • CA-19: SurveyUSA (4/16-19, likely voters, 3/15-17 in parens):
  • Jeff Denham (R): 27 (25)

    Jim Patterson (R): 26 (26)

    Richard Pombo (R): 16 (13)

    Larry Westerlund (R): 6 (7)

    Undecided: 25 (29)

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

    Loraine Goodwin (D): 18 (14)

    John Estrada (D): 15 (24)

    Les Marsden (D): 10 (8)

    Undecided (D): 56 (54)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Seriously, of all the races they could poll? I realize this is on behalf of a media client, but still.

  • DC-AL, UT-AL: Sigh. Legislation which would have given the District of Columbia an actual voting seat in the House is yet again being derailed. Republicans insist that any such bill also eviscerate any remaining gun control laws in the district, and they’ve frightened enough conservative Dems into supporting such an amendment that you can’t have one (the voting rights bill) without the other (the gun provision). The pro-gun measure has become even more absurd, though, such that Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton asked Steny Hoyer to pull the bill altogether. On the Senate side, Orrin Hatch had spazzed about the fact that the bill’s other sop to Republicans (a temporary extra seat for Utah) would have been at at-large district – he wants to be able to re-draw the lines (and presumably screw Dem Rep. Jim Matheson) – and said he was glad the bill got scuttled.
  • HI-01: The D-Trip just spent another $55K on a second negative TV ad attacking Charles Djou, which you can see here. Meanwhile, in light of recent polling showing this unusual jungle race to be incredibly tight, SSP is changing its rating from “Lean Dem” to “Tossup.
  • MI-01: Term-limited Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell will apparently run to succeed Bart Stupak. McDowell is from the Upper Peninsula, which Crisitunity aptly described as the district’s “cultural center of gravity.” One possible holdup, though, is that it sounds like McDowell may be willing to defer to former House Democratic Floor Leader Pat Gagliardi, who has not yet made up his mind.
  • NY-29: Dem Matthew Zeller, tapped by county leaders as the Democratic nominee in the (potential) special election to succeed Eric Massa, formally launched his campaign on Monday. However, it’s starting to look like there won’t be a special election after all, which means there will be a primary. If that winds up being the case, businessman David Nachbar (who withdrew his name from consideration for the special) has said he might run.
  • WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan is going on the air with a TV ad that attacks his primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, “for his ties to a conservative-leaning organization of state legislators.” Oliverio had previously launched an ad attacking Mollohan on ethical grounds. No word on the size of either buy.
  • Alaska: Alaska’s state legislature voted to increase its size, by two seats in the Senate and four in the House. AK’s population has tripled since statehood fifty years ago, but its lege had remained constant in numbers. What’s more, its rural districts are enormous, and would have gotten even larger after redistricting as the population concentrates in the state’s few big cities.
  • Polling: Reid Wilson, diving into recent FEC reports, notes that few Dems commissioned polls in the first quarter of this year – and among those who have, pretty much no one is sharing the data with the public. However, Reid doesn’t say whether Republicans have spent similarly on internal polling in the past quarter, or how Q1 2010 compares with prior years.
  • RNC: God bless Michael Steele. Under his stewardship, the RNC decided to blow $340K to hold a big staff meeting in… Hawaii. Because that’s both convenient and inexpensive. If Dems suffer anything less than an utter blowout this fall, we’ll be able to thank Steele in no small part.
  • WATN?: Former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who already served 99 days in jail for obstruction of justice (among other things), may be headed back to prison for probation violations (including hiding assets).
  • SSP Daily Digest: 5/5

    FL-Sen: Word on the street is that Charlie Crist will announce his plans regarding the Senate race on Monday. It sounds like he’s eager to jump in as soon as possible after the end of the legislative session, to keep Marco Rubio from gaining any traction. If Crist’s exalted-sounding riposte to Rubio’s smacktalk yesterday is any indcation, he’s already staking out the post-partisan high ground.

    NH-Sen: Over in what Dean Barker calls “Cloud Hampshire,” Andy Smith of UNH still thinks there are more Republicans than Democrats in the Granite State. That could be why the notoriously unreliable pollster finds John Sununu, Jr. “leading” Paul Hodes 46-41. Take it for what it’s worth – i.e., not very much at all. (D)

    MN-Gov: Ellison Endorses Entenza! Rep. Keith Ellison from Minneapolis lent his support to Matt Entenza, the former state House minority leader (and a friend of Ellison’s from law school).

    OR-04: Republicans have recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken to run against longtime incumbent Peter DeFazio. Don’t be misled into thinking this D+2 district represents a good opportunity for the GOP – DeFazio is very popular (he won with 83% last year). More likely, the GOP is hoping DeFazio will run for the governor’s mansion, leaving this seat open. (D)

    TX-17: GOP candidates once again are lining up for the opportunity to take on Rep. Chet Edwards. But Edwards keeps on finding a way to win in this wildly red district (at R+20, it’s the 19th most-conservative seat in the entire country), and he isn’t even on Frontline this year. Meanwhile, the Republican field is very much unsettled. (D)

    FL-24: State Republican chairman Jim Greer just announced that he won’t take on freshman Dem Suzanne Kosmas this cycle. Yet another recruiting failure for Pete Sessions & the NRCC. (D)

    Mayors: There are two mayoral elections in big cities today: Detroit and Anchorage. Detroit is a Dem-on-Dem duel where there’s not much ideological difference and it’s more of an insider/outsider clash; Kenneth Cockrel, who took over as mayor after Kwame Kilpatrick resigned, is up against businessman (and Detroit Pistons great and NBA Hall of Famer) Dave Bing. Anchorage residents are choosing between Democrat Eric Croft and Republican Dan Sullivan to replace now-Sen. Mark Begich. Anchorage Mayor was an important stepping stone for all two of Alaska’s prominent Dems: ex-Gov. Tony Knowles as well as Begich.

    MI-Gov: AG Mike Cox Caught Up in Kwame Texting Scandal

    From the Hotline on Call:

    The release of ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s text messages earlier this week could threaten to derail MI AG Mike Cox’s (R) GOV campaign before it officially gets underway.

    In the messages, Cox reportedly suggested he would clear Kilpatrick of any wrongdoing relating to a party at Manoogian Mansion before a probe into the bash even began.

    (The rumored ’02 gathering was grist for the Detroit gossip mill after stripper Tamara Greene reportedly filled out a police report claiming she was assaulted by Kilpatrick’s wife, Carlita, during the “out-of-control” party at the mayor’s official residence. Greene later was shot to death, and the killing remains unsolved.)

    Former Detroit Corporation Counsel Ruth Carter texted Kilpatrick on 5/19/03: “[Cox] called me and asked who we would rather be cleared by him or (Wayne Co. Prosecutor Mike) Duggan. I said him.”

    After an investigation by his office, Cox told reporters 6/24/03: “The party has all the earmarks of an ‘urban legend,’ and it should be treated as such.”

    In his defense, Cox does make a good point – why would he bother helping the likes of Kwame Kilpatrick? In the often crazy world of Michigan politics, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some kind of reason. Any ideas?

    MI Filing: Complete Slate again

    All 15 House incumbents filed for re-election as did U.S. Senator Carl Levin.  Overall, Democrats filed for all 15 House districts; Republicans filed for 14 leaving John Conyers (MI-14) unopposed.  (In 2006, Democrats filed for 15 seats; Republicans for 13) Mark Schauer in MI-7 drew a primary opponent in 2006 nominee Sharon Renier.  Renier gave the best challenge to any Michigan incumbent finishing behind by less than 10,000 votes despite an underfunded campaign.  Edward Kriewall and Joseph Larkin will vie for the nomination in MI-11.  John Conyers has a primary opponent in Horace Sheffield.  Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick drew two primary opponents: Martha Scott and Mary Waters.  In related news (pun intended), the Detroit City Council voted 5-4 to request that Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm remove Kwame Kilpatrick from his job as Mayor.

    Only one Republican primary will be required: in MI-1 to oppose Democratic incumbent Bart Stupak.  Tom Casperson, Linda Goldthorpe, and Don Hooper will vie for the slot.  Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. will oppose Carl Levin for the U,S, Senate seat.

    The 110 member State House is up for election.  Democrats, who had a full legislative slate in 2006 did it again.  Republicans left 14 of the 110 seats unopposed.

    Democratic candidates:

    Senate: Carl Levin (Incumbent)

    MI-1:   Bart Stupak (Incumbent)

    MI-2:   Fred Johnson

    MI-3:   Henry Sanchez

    MI-4:   Andrew Concannon

    MI-5:   Dale Kildee (Incumbent)

    MI-6:   Don Cooney

    MI-7:   Sharon Renier

           Mark Schauer

    MI-8:   Robert Alexander

    MI-9:   Gary Peters

    MI-10:  Robert Denison

    MI-11:  Edward Kriewall

           Joseph Larkin

    MI-12:  Sander Levin (Incumbent)

    MI-13:  Carolyn Kilpatrick Cheeks (Incumbent)

           Martha Scott

           Mary Waters

    MI-14:  John Conyers (Incumbent)

           Horace Sheffield

    MI-15:  John Dingell (Incumbent)

    Dingell is the senior member of the House in terms of seniority (1955 IIRC).  Conyers has represented his district since being elected in 1962.