Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing). Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions. This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation. In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4). In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.
Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline. The case for a Don Young retirement is simple. It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence. The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell. Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell. We’ll know by June 2.
My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice. Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner. Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA). Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.
None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave. Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.
Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out. There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving. No change.
Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.
No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed. That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin. If Sensenbrenner. Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor. (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).
Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings. McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth. She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane. Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994. He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree. Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer. I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career. Lose, yes. Retire, no.
6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine. McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear. Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29). Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa). My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up. Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible. (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.
8. Mike Castle. Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up). Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.
9. Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district. Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan. I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again. Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again. (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.) Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.
10. John Shadegg. Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash. He’s running. Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees. Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.
Nothing happening: KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).
Don Young may realistically retire. Anybody else seems highly unlikely.