Tag: SC-01

• CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even “Generic R” holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to “Likely Democrat.” (D)

• CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)

• SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry “Smoky” Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday’s news that Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)

• PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter’s base, and location of most of the state’s moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It’s not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)

• CT-05: Connecticut’s executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he’s doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).

• Census: There wasn’t much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.

• UT-Sen: With the possibility of a serious primary challenge to Sen. Bob Bennett looming, SSP is adding this contest to our “Races to Watch” list. (D)

• TX-10: A spokesman for Michael McCaul claims he’s running for re-election to his House seat; earlier McCaul said he might run for TX AG, but this situation still bears watching. Dem Jack McDonald apparently plans to run no matter what McCaul decides. (D)

• PA-Sen: Peg Luksik, a pro-life activist who has made several unsuccessful runs for governor (both in the GOP primary in 1990 and on the Constitution Party line in 1998, when she pulled in 10% of the vote in the general), is planning to run in the Republican primary against both Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey. This may actually be good news for Specter, because a split between the religious fundamentalists and free-market fundamentalists in the primary could let Specter sneak through.

• SC-01: The lackadaiscal Henry Brown, fresh off of barely beating Linda Ketner last year, is facing a primary challenge from a young go-getter with a prominent (if laughable) family name: Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III. (His father was SC governor in the 1990s.) Many in the local GOP are worried about the safety of the seat in Brown’s idle hands, and this early announcement may be done with the hope of goading Brown into retirement.

• IN-05: More primary drama in another solidly Republican district. Dan Burton suddenly looked vulnerable after winning his primary by only 7% against former Marion County coroner John McGoff last year. McGoff’s back for a re-run, and now three other GOPers are swarming the race: state rep. Mike Murphy, former state GOP chair Luke Messer, and former 7th district candidate Brose McVey. Marion County prosecutor Carl Brizzi also says he plans to run if Burton retires, although he seems likelier to retire in 2012.

• NRCC: Seeing as how there may be a lot of major GOP primaries in 2010, the NRCC has announced that it may get involved in primaries this cycle, a departure from Tom Cole’s self-destructive hands-off policy last time. The NRCC has also privately signaled that they may let flawed or insufficently aggressive incumbents get picked off in the primaries rather than have to prop them up in the general.

• FL-12: The GOP and Dems already have front-runners for the nominations in the open seat race (to be vacated by Adam Putnam), GOP state representative Dennis Ross and Democratic Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards. But Doug Tudor, who held Putnam under 60% last year without DCCC help, is coming back for another bite at the apple. State senator Paula Dockery is also considering jumping in on the GOP side.

• Caucuses: Meow! (Or woof?) The Blue Dogs are suddenly sounding catty, miffed at seeing their position as the go-to caucus for watering down progressive legislation usurped by the New Democrats in the wake of the mortgage modification bill.

Survey USA for WCSC Live5 News (10/25-26, likely voters):

Linda Ketner (D): 45

Henry Brown (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I suspect this weekend’s Research 2000 poll showing Democrat Linda Ketner within 9 11 points in this very conservative district piqued a lot of people’s interest, but may have gotten shrugged off as too-good-to-be-true. Well, if that didn’t rouse Henry Brown from his seemingly decade-long slumber, this will: we have not just confirmation from another public pollster but an even closer result: SurveyUSA has Ketner back just 5.

The poll’s writeup states that African-Americans comprised 20% of the sample. This seems plausible, as the African-American population of the district was about 21% according to 2006 census estimate. With highly motivated AA turnout, though, we could see an even closer race.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

SC-01

Linda Ketner (D): 37

Henry Brown (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

SC-02

Rob Miller (D): 35

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-10

Daniel Johnson (D): 37

Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±5%)

If a year ago… or heck, even a month ago… you’d told someone that we’d be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.

Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don’t suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn’t even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.

The only race of the three that’s within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can’t be ruled out.

If you’re not familiar with the sordid story of Henry Brown (which Democrat Linda Ketner nicely summed up in thirty seconds), I’d suggest that you educate yourself. Long story short: GOP Rep. Henry Brown started a forest fire that destroyed 20 acres of a national forest. Brown was fined $7,000 for the damage, but he refused to pay up and fought tooth-and-nail to change the law in order to make it harder to prosecute people who burn down national forests. Pardon my language, but that’s fucked up.

Democrat Linda Ketner has been waging a long shot but well-funded campaign against Brown since the start of the year, and she appears to have blindsided the extremely crusty, extremely arrogant Brown with her attack ads on the issue. So what does Henry Brown do in response?

He sends out mailers featuring Smokey the Bear:

I shit you not, my friends.

(H/T: Elonkey)

DavidNYC had more on this sordid story of reckless behavior, abuse of power, and bureaucratic cowardice last week. I’m glad to see Ketner taking this issue onto the airwaves. GOP Rep. Henry Brown could very well be the King of the Crumb-bums.

Hat-tip to Elonkey for flagging this one.

I tell you, I’m just dumbfounded:

A senior federal official, fearful of incurring a congressman’s wrath, sent subordinates on a mad dash earlier this year to retrieve a certified letter demanding payment of $5,773 for starting a fire that burned 20 acres of a national forest.

Mark Rey, undersecretary of agriculture for natural resources, said he didn’t want U.S. Rep. Henry Brown to receive the March 12 letter before he testified before a U.S. House committee on which the South Carolina Republican sits.

“I’d just as soon have him not take a chunk of hide out of me,” Rey said Wednesday.

Wow. Just wow. What kind of fucking banana republic bullshit is this? This is the sort of thing that must warm Dick Cheney’s corpse of a heart: A federal official responsible for enforcing the law lets a powerful congressman off the hook to avoid getting grilled in a congressional hearing. In his own words:

Rey defended his decision to intercept the letter as “a reasonable precaution” to prevent Brown from “stewing on it while he’s sitting up there on the dais” of the U.S. House Natural Resources subcommittee, which oversees management of national parks and forests.

What. The. Fuck. It’s now reasonable to ignore the law to save your own hide? I guess that’s been the Cheney Doctrine for the past eight years, so it should be little surprise that an incompetent, amoral bureaucrat would follow that path. What’s more, Brown didn’t just get his penalty reduced, he got the law changed:

As a result of Brown’s case, the Forest Service in June rewrote a criminal code to make it more difficult to prosecute people who negligently set fires on federal land – about 80 fires a year in the South alone.

“It will be much harder for us to go after people who allow fires to escape from their property onto the national forests,” said Jack Gregory, who was the Forest Service’s top law enforcement agent in the 13 Southern states at the time of Brown’s 2004 fire.

Not a surprise for a guy who clearly believes he’s above the law:

“I was so taken aback that I’d be treated so impersonal – like I was some kind of crook,” Brown said Wednesday. “Those were criminal charges that were filed against me. I felt like I was the victim.” …

Brown then went on a personal crusade in which he complained about his penalty in numerous e-mails, letters and phone exchanges with U.S. Forest Service employees in Washington, South Carolina, New Mexico and elsewhere.

Unsurprisingly, a whistleblower complaint charging Brown with obstruction of justice was dropped. We can only hope that Brown’s opponent this year, Linda Ketner, can make an issue of his special privileges and law-breaking ways, because in Dick Cheney’s world, there’s just no accountability.

(Thanks to vicupstate for the great find.)

With congressional primaries in Maine, South Carolina, and Virginia on June 10th, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC for the period from 4/1 to 5/21 passed at midnight.  Let’s round-up the numbers from all the hot races (all figures are subject to rounding and listed in the thousands; loans not included):

“Under the radar” races are my favorite, so let’s take a look at SC-01 and SC-02, two deeply red seats with surprisingly strong Democratic challengers.

In SC-01, businesswoman/civic leader Linda Ketner has raised ($430K) and spent ($398K) quite a bit money so far. She’s also loaned her campaign $350,000 so far. This is some serious money for an R+9.6 district — and she needs to be posting these kinds of figures, when the incumbent is sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand.

Also impressive is SC-02’s Rob Miller. An Iraq vet, Miller entered the race in March and has raised nearly $200K and lent his campaign an additional $100K. Again, very respectable scrilla for an R+8.9 district.