Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Linda Ketner (D): 37
Henry Brown (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
Rob Miller (D): 35
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Daniel Johnson (D): 37
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±5%)
If a year ago… or heck, even a month ago… you’d told someone that we’d be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.
Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don’t suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn’t even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.
The only race of the three that’s within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can’t be ruled out.