The TV market split for the MO-9 primaries
Democratic Primary
Columbia (25K): 54/26 Baker
Hannibal (11.8K): Bode 39, Gaw 32, Baker 26
St. Louis (11K): 44/37 Baker
Kirksville (3133): 49/36 Gaw
Overall, Columbia carried the day for Baker while the strong showing in St. Louis helped increase her margin to 44/31. Bode’s showing in his home market was his only highlight. 4583 of his 6565 votes came from the Hannibal market.
Now, to the Republican primary, under the fold
Columbia (26K): Luetkemeyer 47, Moore 29, Onder 14
St. Louis (21.58K): Onder 46, Luetkemeyer 30
Kirksville (3330): Luetkemeyer 38, Onder 35
Hannibal (3303): Luetkemeyer 46, Onder 32
Basically Luetkemeyer pulled in the Columbia market, and pulled in enough of the rest of the district to hold back Bob Onder’s giant burlap bags of money.
The Hulshof/Steelman primary helped to lead to a 52/48 split. A reverse of 2006 when more voters voted for Duane Burghard than Kenny Hulshof in the uncontested primaries.
The total votes for primary candidates by market
Columbia (51K): 51/49 Republican
St. Louis (32.7K): 66/34 Republican
Hannibal (15K): 78/22 Democratic
Kirksville (6478): 51/48 Republican
Total: 51/48 Republican
(A big thanks to the Hannibal market for keeping it close)
Back in 2006, Hannibal and STL had the exact same percentages. Kirksville voted 65/35 Democratic, and Columbia voted 55/45 Democratic. The shifts is due to people voting for Hulshof in the Republican primary.
So basically the two nominees (Baker and Luetkemeyer) have some things they need to do to win in November.
Baker needs to
a) win a convincing majority in Boone County (which makes up at least half the votes in the Columbia media market). Luetkemeyer would be a favorite for the Columbia market south of the Missouri.
b) make a strong showing in the Hannibal area (which she did well in back in August)
c) Do pretty well in a market that Luetkemeyer did not win: St. Louis. STL gave Burghard 37% in 2006, so Baker can concievably build on her August showing to deal with an opponent who didn’t win the STL market in the primary
Luetkemeyer needs to
a) Hold on to as much of Boone County and Northeast Missouri as possible. He will probably not come close to the 57% that Hulshof won in Boone back in 2006. But he’s from the South End of the district (Miller County)
b) Do well in the traditionally Republican areas of the STL market in MO-9 (Warren, The St. Charles sliver in the district).
The impact of television markets is a bit more obvious in primaries. But this race should be one to watch and it should be interesting to see if we start off even, or if one candidate has a slight lead in the first polls.