SSP Daily Digest: 1/11

Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

CO-Gov: Salazar Won’t Run, Will Back Hickenlooper

If you can bear to look at Chris Cillizza‘s Twitter background wallpaper, he has a rather important message up:

Ken Salazar will not run for gov of Colorado…will back Denver Mayor Hickenlooper…

We’ll update as more information becomes available. (UPDATE: Here’s Salazar‘s statement regarding Hickenlooper:)

“Colorado needs a strong, experienced leader with optimism and new ideas for carrying our state forward. That is why I am endorsing John Hickenlooper for governor of Colorado,” Salazar said in a statement. “John Hickenlooper is a uniter. He transcends political and geographic divides to bring people together to develop solutions. If he decides to run, he will make an excellent governor for the state of Colorado.”

RaceTracker: CO-Gov

CO-Gov: McInnis Leads Other Possible Dems

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42

Scott McInnis (R): 45

Some other: 5

Don’t know: 8

John (or Ken?) Salazar (D): 41

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 2

Don’t know: 9

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 6

Don’t know: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen strikes quickly to check out potential matchups between Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis and possible Democratic candidates, now that Gov. Bill Ritter has decided not to run for re-election. They find that Denver mayor John Hickenlooper fares the best of the three options, while former House speaker (and current Senate primary candidate, where he’s making no headway against the eminently beatable Michael Bennet) Andrew Romanoff does the worst.

You may notice the very strange configuration of John (or Ken?) Salazar above. That’s because, depending on where you look, Rasmussen is listing both names. Their article says Ken (the Interior Sec. and former Senator), which would make more sense, as his interest in the race has been loud and public, but the toplines page and the Pollster.com writeup say John (the CO-03 Rep.), which would make much less sense, as he not only hasn’t expressed interest in the race but has been speaking on his brother’s behalf. Rasmussen Reports? You decide.

RaceTracker: CO-Gov

CO-Gov: Hickenlooper Considering Race, But Will Defer to Salazar; Perlmutter Keeping Options Open

We’ve made no secret that we’re hoping that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper jumps into the gubernatorial race. In a statement to the media today, Hickenlooper is considering it, but he’s giving Interior Secretary and ex-Sen. Ken Salazar the first right of refusal:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said this afternoon he would make a relatively quick decision about whether to run for Colorado governor but said that he would consider entering the race only if Ken Salazar didn’t. […]

“Ken Salazar is Ken Salazar. Should Ken Salazar decide to run I’d probably be his first volunteer,” the popular Denver mayor said at a downtown press conference, surrounded by his family.

Hickenlooper praised Ritter for his “courage” in announcing earlier in the day that he wanted to devote more time and energy to his family and would abort his run for a second term, declaring that “this is Bill Ritter’s day.”

Will Salazar actually go for it? Well, there are enough rumblings to suggest that it’s a distinct possibility. Salazar’s brother, 3rd CD Rep. John Salazar, is on the record with words of encouragement for such a switch, and, for what it’s worth, ColoradoPols is hearing that an “official decision is all but done”. Salazar is staying mum on the question for now, but the Denver Post reports that he’ll have the White House’s permission to run if he so chooses.

Meanwhile, 7th CD Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who sounds pretty jacked now that Ritter is off the ballot, is not ruling out the possibility of a gubernatorial bid himself:

“This is a nightmare for the Republican party. This decision is a game changer, and I believe Colorado Democrats have a deep bench of potential candidates who can win this race. I am confident we will have a candidate who will present real solutions for Colorado instead of the Republicans who want to focus on the status quo by just saying no. We will retain this seat and continue to move our state forward and ensure Colorado remains one of the best states to live in.

“I am honored to have my name mentioned as a potential candidate. I love this state and I want to continue to serve my community and state and make it a great place to live for everybody. It’s a premature decision to make at this time, but one I will carefully consider.”

Hickenlooper is by far my first choice here, but Salazar appears to be salivating over the opportunity. We’ll just have to stay tuned.

SSP Daily Digest: 1/6

FL-Sen: Here’s one late-30-something, telegenic conservative helping out another: WI-01’s Rep. Paul Ryan just endorsed Marco Rubio in the Senate primary. Ryan (who’s actually been getting some dark-horse presidential buzz lately) may in fact be the real beneficiary here, since it may direct some of Rubio’s healthy glow among the teabag set in Ryan’s direction, bolstering his future credentials. Speaking of the teabaggers, despite having claimed the scalp of Florida GOP chair and key Charlie Crist ally Jim Greer, they still aren’t happy with the annointment of John Thrasher as the new chair; apparently he too is insufficiently crazy, or at least part of the same backroom process. Finally, take this with a huge hunk o’ salt, but ex-Rep. Mark Foley is highlighting a rumor on his Facebook page (yes, Mark Foley is on Facebook, and I’m not eager to think about what else might be on his page) that Charlie Crist is on the precipice of pulling his FL-Sen bid altogether and running for another term as Governor instead.

NY-Sen-B: Lots of walking-things-back going on in New York’s Senate race. Republican Rep. Peter King is now saying he’s “leaning against” a Senate bid. Taegan Goddard rightly invokes both Mario Cuomo and Hamlet in ridiculing King’s protracted public vacillations. And ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. also may be dialing things down too, in regards to a possible primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. An operative working with Ford is now saying that Ford is “unlikely to take the plunge,” and seemed more interested in “creating buzz” for himself. (Why am I not surprised?)

AZ-Gov: The GOP primary field in Arizona is getting even more scrambled, with the entry of Some Dude who claims to be bringing $2.1 million to the table with him. Owen Buz Mills’ campaign report was the first anyone has seemingly heard of him. He’s a member of the National Rifle Association’s board of directors, and owner of a company called Gunsite (which operates a 2,000 acre weapons training site). Current Gov. Jan Brewer said she wouldn’t be deterred by Mills’ presence, as did former state regent John Munger (who probably has more to lose by Mills’ entry, as he’s sort of the de facto non-Brewer for now, at least until or unless state Treasurer Dean Martin gets in the race).

CO-Gov: While much of the speculation, in the wake of Gov. Bill Ritter’s surprise decision not to seek another term, has focused on Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, or a switch from the Senate primary by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, there’s one other high-profile possibility: Interior Secretary, and former Senator, Ken Salazar. Salazar, however, is staying mum, for now. PPP’s Tom Jensen is skeptical of a Salazar candidacy, though, pointing out that Salazar didn’t have strong favorables (39/36 in late 2008) even before he joined the Obama administration, and Colorado has seen one of the biggest drops in Obama approvals of any state, making his time in the Cabinet something of an anchor for him.

CT-Gov: Three sort-of prominent local officials are all scoping out the already-crowded Governor’s race in the Nutmeg State. On the Dem side, the First Selectwoman of Simsbury, Mary Glassman, said she’ll seek the nomination (she was the 2006 Lt. Governor candidate). On the GOP side, Shelton mayor Mark Lauretti says he’s considering the race; he’s banking on his nearly 20 years of experience running the city, although he is currently the target of a federal corruption probe. (Although what Connecticut mayor isn’t?) Also, the Republican mayor of the much larger city of Danbury, Mark Boughton, says he’s reached a decision on whether or not to enter the race. The weird thing is, he doesn’t plan to let anyone know what that decision is for another month.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber made it official today: he’s launching a teabag-powered primary challenge to the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. He owns several “billiards facilities” in the area, as well as organizing tea parties in his spare time. The primary winner will face freshman Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright.

AR-02: Another GOP establishment fave, former US Attorney Tim Griffin, just got bumped up a notch in the NRCC’s three-tiered fundraising pyramid [scheme]. He was promoted to “Contender,” leaving him just one step away from coveted “Young Gun” status.

CA-19: With a big three-way brawl already brewing in the GOP open seat primary between ex-Rep. Richard Pombo, state Sen. Jeff Denham, and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, ex-SoS and 2004 Senate race loser Bill Jones has decided to give the race a pass.

NJ-03: One possible alternative to Jon Runyan as the GOP nominee in the 3rd said “no thanks” yesterday. State Sen. Christopher Connors was apparently the first choice of the Ocean County Republican party; Runyan is the Burlington County party’s pick, so it remains to be seen whether Ocean County unites behind Runyan or pushes someone else (like Toms River city councilor Maurice Hill).

TN-08: The NRCC, based purely on their own fantasies, has been attempting to “gay bait” Dem Roy Herron. And of course, the tradmed has dutifully transcribed whatever bullshit the NRCC has spewed out. Funny, then, that the kid spokesbot responsible for this smear enjoys attending “GOB festivals.” No, Arrested Development fans, this has nothing to do with erstwhile ne’er-do-well George Oscar Bluth. Just click the link and John Aravosis will tell you all you need to know. (D)

VA-05: The teabagging right keeps coalescing behind businessman Laurence Verga as the Republican primary alternative to state Sen. Robert Hurt (who apparently voted in favor of a tax once)… and now Verga is getting the endorsement of one of their iconic figures: Samuel “Joe the Plumber” Wurzelbacher. Could a Chuck Norris endorsement be far behind?

UT-03, UT-Sen: Freshman Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz is expected to announce today that he’ll run for another term in the House. He’s been occasionally associated with a potential primary challenge to Senator Bob Bennett, but has more recently said he’s likelier to seek re-election to the House.

WA-St. Sen.: This is getting way down in the weeds, but remember attorney Randy Gordon? He was briefly the leading Democratic candidate in the 2006 race in WA-08, before standing down in the primary in favor of a Camp Wellstone classmate with better fundraising chops: Darcy Burner. Well, it looks like he’s secured the temporary appointment to take over the vacant state Senate seat in the 41st LD, left vacant by Fred Jarrett’s move to become Deputy King Co. Executive; he should have a fairly easy time retaining this Dem-leaning seat based in suburban Bellevue.

Mayors: Here’s a wild rumor (with Sally Quinn as its source): ex-Rep. and current CoS Rahm Emanuel isn’t planning on a long-term stay in the White House. Emanuel is reportedly eyeing a run for Chicago mayor in 2011. Also on the mayoral front, Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon is leaving office; she offered her resignation and an Alford plea on a count of perjury in order to settle a number of charges against her.

DCCC: Chris Van Hollen offered some boilerplate reassurances today that few, if any, Democratic retirements in the House are in the offing. He said there would be a “couple more,” if that. (With almost all the troublesome seats accounted for, that’s not a surprise; SC-05’s John Spratt seems to be the biggest question mark outstanding in a difficult seat.) (UPDATE: Ooops, I missed Spratt‘s re-election announcement over the holidays. So now I don’t know who’s vulnerable and unaccounted for.)

RNC: By now, readers should be familiar with the NRCC’s cash crunch, which severely hampers its ability to capitalize on recruiting successes and the favorable environment. But anyone thinking they might turn to the RNC for a bailout may be surprised to hear that the once-flush RNC is in almost equally dire shape. After a spending spree under Michael Steele’s leadership (to the tune of $90 million last year), the RNC is only sitting on $8.7 million in the bank. That’s down from $22.8 CoH at the start of Steele’s tenure. That’s the party of fiscal discipline at work for you, right there.

CO-Sen: Few who know Bennet mostly disapprove

PPP poll of 1,050 Colorado voters between April 17th and 19th. MoE +/-3%.

Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Michael Bennet’s job performance?

Approve 34%

Disapprove 41%

Not Sure 25%

Versus various Repubs the numbers are:

Bennet 39

Ryan Frazier 35

Bennet 40

Ken Buck 34

Bennet 41

Josh Penry 34

Bob Beauprez 43

Bennet 42

I would say the fact that he trails the better know Beauprez by only a single point and leads all the others isn’t all bad. He should be okay with some outreach to Dems (his waffling on EFCA has clearly hurt), indies and particularly hispanics. Though numbers like this might encourage a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff or others.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

CO-Sen: Salazar to Interior

Apparently, it’s confirmed:

A transition official for President-elect Barack Obama says Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will be named Interior Secretary later this week.

The appointment will round out Obama’s environment and energy team. He unveiled most of the team on Monday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting Obama’s upcoming announcement.

This aide did just pre-empt Obama’s announcement – the only thing anonymity does is possibly protect his or her sorry ass (unless this was one of those “intentional” leaks directed from on high). Whatever. I’ve already gone on record saying I’m not thrilled with this choice – I would have much preferred Rep. Raul Grijalva – but that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

Gov. Bill Ritter, a Dem, gets to pick Salazar’s replacement. The seat, which was up in 2010 anyway, might now see see a more competitive race than it otherwise would have, especially if Ritter picks a caretaker. Who do you like to replace Salazar, and who might face off against his replacement in two years?

UPDATE: Some names supposedly in circulation, according to the Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper

Rep. John Salazar

Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Rep. Diana DeGette

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet

Outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff

Former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland

CO-Sen: Salazar to Interior?

It seems like Barack Obama is determined to have a Salazar in his Cabinet. From the Denver Post:

U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar is a leading contender to become President-elect Barack Obama’s secretary of the Interior, two sources have confirmed.

Reuters News Service used even stronger language in a report Sunday, saying Salazar had become the top candidate for the job. […]

A source close to Obama’s transition team told The Denver Post late last week that Salazar was under consideration for the Cabinet position.

The source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak, said at the time it appeared that it was all but up to Salazar as to whether he wanted the post.

A second source close to the process also confirmed Sunday that Sala zar was a leading contender. The senator’s spokesmen did not return telephone messages seeking comment.

A vacancy here would be filled by an appointment from Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter, but would also add another race to the growing list of 2010 Senate contests. (Oh right, his term was up anyway.) If Ken Salazar indeed gets the gig, who would you like to see take his place in the Senate?

Update: In the diaries, Adam Kretz gives us a lengthy list of possible Salazar successors.

MO-Sen, CO-Sen: Salazar Solid, Bond Shaky

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Robin Carnahan (D): 43

Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.

Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49

John Elway (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).

Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.

CO-SEN: Salazar is in decent, but not great shape

Research 2000 did a poll for Kos looking at some possible match-ups in the 2010 Senate race

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

It showed Salazar leading outgoing Congressman Tom Tancredo 51-37 and former NFL great John Elway 49-38.

The poll also showed some pretty mediocre approval ratings for Salazar at 48-41.

I didn’t need a poll to tell me that Tom Tancredo is not electable statewide in a state Barack Obama carried.

I have no idea why they measured Tancredo instead of former Gov. Bill Owens. As I’ve read numerous 2010 previews that say Owens is the GOP’s only real shot at this seat.

I think what we can ascertain from this poll is that Salazar is not safe. But without some external factors and a top flight recruit he should be okay.