SSP Daily Digest: 3/1

AZ-Sen: Tensions between John McCain and Arizona’s state GOP chair Randy Pullen (who’s more linked to the conservative grassroots than McCain’s camp) are reaching a head; Pullen pulled his endorsement of McCain after the two scuffled over money for party GOTV efforts. McCain is planning a weird end-run around the state party involving funneling money through the Yuma County GOP. It remains to be seen whether J.D. Hayworth will benefit from the inside-baseball civil war; Hayworth, meanwhile, is finding that birtherism doesn’t play as well once you’re on the big stage instead of the AM-radio fringes: he’s trying to walk back his previous birther-curious remarks, just saying he was trying to “provoke conversation.”

FL-Sen: There might be some legs to the Marco Rubio expenses story that go beyond his use of the GOP state party’s credit card. Now he’s admitting that he double-billed both state taxpayers and the state GOP for eight different flights he took while state House speaker.

KS-Sen: Here’s one less thing Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt has to worry about: the Appropriations Committee veteran was cleared by the House Ethics committee over his links to sketchy lobbying firm PMA. Rep. Jerry Moran won’t be able to use that against him in their Senate primary, but regardless, Tiahrt is still having trouble keeping pace with Moran in the polls.

KY-Sen: Here’s a strange exchange between the Trey Grayson and Rand Paul camps. After Paul accused Grayson of having voted for Bill Clinton, Grayson responded that Paul voted for known whackjob Ron Paul for President, to which Rand said “It’s hard for me to imagine anyone not voting for his own father.” Meanwhile, Grayson is also still hitting Paul hard over the coal issue, and that could be an issue that, assuming Paul wins the primary, his Democratic nominee could keep getting a lot of mileage out of.

MD-Sen: Rasmussen actually bothered polling the Maryland Senate race, although they only used “Generic Republican” as Barbara Mikulski’s opposition. She still wins easily, 54-36. Queen Anne’s County Councilor and wealthy physician Eric Wargotz is moving toward entering the race, and former state Del. Carmen Amedori has already filed, so why the use of Generic R, though?

NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr. keeps bumping back his timeline on announcing his plans on whether or not to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary (ostensibly because he doesn’t want to do so while David Paterson is dominating the news). Given the unprecedented badness of his campaign rollout — which may have just gotten worth with the news that his Merrill Lynch salary is $2 million, exclusive of bonuses — he may be mulling whether or not go through with it after all.

OH-Sen: Rob Portman is drawing fire for his plans to address Cincinnati-area anti-tax group COAST and raise money for them, which has a history of inflammatory statements. COAST’s website refers to Ohio’s General Assembly as “Nazis.” They also referred to Ted Kennedy as a “shovel-ready project.”

PA-Sen: I’m not sure voters care much about this kind of process stuff, but Arlen Specter is landing some hard blows on Joe Sestak for paying his staffers so poorly (effectively below the minimum wage), especially while Sestak’s three siblings (who are effectively the topmost tier of his campaign) make much more. Still, the rate at which the Sestak campaign is shedding staffers suggests something’s amiss at camp Sestak.

WI-Sen: Politico is reporting that Tommy Thompson seems to be taking some serious steps toward a Senate run against Russ Feingold, at least to the extent of securing financial pledges and attempting to round up former staffers. Some insiders remain skeptical that the 67-year-old Thompson, who put forth a rather doddering image amidst the crash and burn of his 2008 presidential run, will actually pull the trigger.

IA-Gov: I wonder if this was who Ed Fallon had in mind when he said someone should primary Chet Culver in the gubernatorial race. Jonathan Narcisse announced that he’ll take on Culver in the Democratic primary, focusing on educational issues. Narcisse, as a former Des Moines school board member and publisher of several independent newspapers, seems at least one step up from Some Dude status (although there’s still a strong whiff of gadflyishness here).

IL-Gov: This Friday, March 5th, is the deadline for the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify the results of February’s Republican gubernatorial primary. According to unofficial tallies (not disputed by either campaign), Bob Brady has a 247-vote lead on Kirk Dillard. Dillard’s camp doesn’t sound very optimistic – they seem to be holding out hope that a previously-unknown error will crop up in their favor. A spokesman says that Dillard might consider seeking a recount if the margin is less than 100 votes, but even that, they say, is not a “magical number.” (D)

KS-Gov: Rasmussen has been nothing if not thorough in the last few months, and now they’re the first pollster to look at a race that everyone has regarded as a foregone conclusion: the Kansas governor’s race. They find Republican Sen. Sam Brownback leading Democratic state Sen. Tom Holland 55-33. Given the source, that’s actually better than I would have expected.

MN-Gov: While state House minority leader Marty Seifert has taken on something of presumptive GOP frontrunner status, his closest competition, state Rep. Tom Emmer, is far from dead. Emmer just got the backing of two local Republican heavyweights, former Rep. Vin Weber, and RNC committee member and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Sullivan.

NY-Gov: Even though he’s already pulled the plug on his re-election bid, there’s still a lot of pressure on David Paterson to resign in the wake of the scandal involving a domestic violence allegation against a top aide. He’s refusing, though; when asked whether resignation was off the table, he responded “I don’t even know why it’s on the table.”

TN-Gov: One more Democrat pulled the plug on a gubernatorial bid today: state Senate minority leader Jim Kyle. Kyle cited poor fundraising (as he can’t raise during the legislative session), as well as long odds in both the primary and general. With state Sen. Roy Herron already out (to pursue TN-08), this leaves only two contestants for the Democratic nod: former state House majority leader Kim McMillan, and businessman and gubernatorial progeny Mike McWherter.

AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is up with his first TV ad already, trying to portray the former Howard Dean supporter as opposed to the “radical Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda.”

GA-07: With the retirement of Rep. John Linder, all sorts of conservative state legislators are being considered as potential candidates in suburban Atlanta, most prominently state Sens. Don Balfour (who just confirmed his entry) and David Shafer. This is also outgoing SoS Karen Handel’s turf, but she’s apparently not interested in abandoning her stalled gubernatorial campaign for the House. Former Atlanta Braves pitcher Jon Smoltz has already ruled out a bid, but one other blast from the past whose name is floating up is former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed.

HI-01: It’s official: Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s last day on the job was yesterday. Today he’s filing his papers to run for Governor instead.

MA-10: Maybe this is an indication that Rep. William Delahunt is sticking around for another term, as his rumored successor (in the event of a Delahunt retirement) Joe Kennedy III said today that he won’t be running for Congress next year. Kennedy says he plans to focus on his day job as assistant district attorney in Barnstable County, but is interested in a future run.

NY-01: In case the race in the 1st wasn’t complicated enough, with three different credible Republicans jostling in the primary and an Assemblyman considering joining them, now there’s news that a Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county councilor) is considering the race, as an Independent. Jay Schneiderman is a former Republican who’s now in the county legislature on the Independence Party line. Initially this seems positive, as a third party might split the anti-Tim Bishop vote, but Bishop has been elected in the past on the Independence as well as the Democratic Party line, so it could actually complicate things for Bishop if Schneiderman secures the IP line.

PA-06: Those cryptic comments by Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Brian Gordon about dropping out seem to have panned out: he pulled the plug on his short-lived bid for the Democratic nod without endorsing. Gordon seemed to have gotten in too late to pose much of a threat to Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi.

Filings: Campaign Diaries looks at the results from the close of the filings period in North Carolina. There’s really not much of note here: the Republicans didn’t seem to score any top-tier candidates in any Dem-held districts (although Tim d’Annunzio, in NC-08, at least seems to be willing to spend his own money). Also, it looks like Rep. Walter Jones, an iconoclastic Republican in a deep-red district, has avoided a major primary challenge (although he is still facing a GOP primary challenge from the Democrat he easily defeated in 2006 and 2008, Craig Weber).

Polltopia: I’m not really sure who to cheer for in a fight between Stu Rothenberg and Scott Rasmussen, but it’s still on. Rothenberg started it with his dissection of Rasmussen’s WI-Sen poll, wondering how the hell a majority of voters could have an opinion about unknown candidate Dave Westlake; Rasmussen fires back, saying look at the “strong” opinions instead of the “somewhat” favorables or unfavorables.

WATN?: Here’s one more Republican ex-Rep. heading to the pokey. John Sweeney pled guilty to driving while intoxicated, and faces 30 days in Saratoga County jail.

Redistricting: Dave’s App (thanks to Dave & Jeff) now has partisan data for Texas and California. There are also a few new features, which you can read more about in Dave’s diary. (D)

Meta: Can you believe it’s the first anniversary of the Daily Digest? (Pardon me while I laugh sadly at my initial plan to have it be “four or five” bullet points.)

SSP Daily Digest: 11/19

NY-23: Well, it didn’t take long for Doug Hoffman to start bringing the crazy. (Maybe his new mentor Glenn Beck is already rubbing off on him.) First came the unconceding (and un-unconceding, as the absentee count wasn’t getting him any closer), but now he’s sending around a fundraising letter saying that “ACORN, the unions, and the Democratic Party” “tampered” with the election results, and that he was “forced to concede” on election night. Hoffman presents no evidence, the Republican elections commissioner of Jefferson County says that’s “absolutely false,” and the Owsego County Republican party chair says that’s “not accurate,” but why should that stop Hoffman? It’s actually a good argument to make, considering that it came out today that more than half of all Republicans polled by PPP think that ACORN stole the presidential election for Barack Obama (by stuffing the ballot boxes with more than 9 million votes, apparently). Meanwhile, aware of the risk next year from hordes of revenge-seeking teabaggers, the DCCC added new Rep. Bill Owens to its Frontline list of key defenses.

KS-Sen: A lot of smoke seems to be pouring out from under the hood of Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt’s Senate campaign, and this can’t help matters. Tiahrt’s campaign’s field coordinator in the state’s most populous county (Johnson Co., in the Kansas City suburbs) resigned after it was revealed he had been arrested in July for an alleged sexual assault in 2008.

MA-Sen: With the fundraising reporting deadline past for the Oct. 1-Nov. 18 period, Rep. Michael Capuano reported raising $1.8 million during the period, leaving him with $1.1 million cash on hand. That’s dwarfed by AG Martha Coakley, though, who reports via press release that she raised $4.1 million during the same period It looks like Coakley’s press release reported cumulative totals – she actually raised around $2 million, with $1.9 million cash on hand left.

UT-Sen: Lawyer Mike Lee (son of Reagan-era Solicitor General and former BYU president Rex Lee) is in Washington DC this week and is making a big play for Club for Growth backing in his potential primary duel with incumbent GOP Senator Bob Bennett. Bringing the CfG into Utah would open up one more front in the GOP civil war.

TN-Gov: The Democratic primary field in the Tennessee governor’s race is as clear as mud, and current governor Phil Bredesen isn’t clearing anything up. He confirmed that he won’t endorse anybody.

CO-04: There’s one more candidate in the GOP field in the 4th, and he’s pretty explicit about his status as what’s come to be known at SSP as “Some Dude.” Dean Madere works for a heating and air-conditioning company, and is a self-proclaimed “regular guy” who’s upset about the country’s direction (and, surprise surprise, is a member of Glenn Beck’s 9/12 movement).

FL-24: He seems a little late to the party, but one more elected Republican is getting into the field in the 24th: former Winter Springs mayor (from 1998 to 2002) Paul Partyka. Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams are already in the hunt to go up against freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.

IA-03: There were rumors of a top-rate Republican challenger to Rep. Leonard Boswell, and we got our first look at him: former Iowa St. wrestling coach Jim Gibbons.  Gibbons doesn’t have previous electoral experience (and isn’t guaranteed a free path in the primary, as state Sen. Brad Zaun had sounded likely to run), but college wrestling is a high-profile sport in Iowa. (Maybe he and Linda McMahon win, they can form the Congressional Wrestling Caucus.)

MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark got a high-profile endorsement as she preps for a Democratic primary fight against Maureen Reed in the 6th. Al Franken threw his support behind Clark.

TX-23: Rep. Ciro Rodriguez got a second GOP opponent; former CIA agent Will Hurd filed to run in the 23rd. Hurd will face a GOP primary against wealthy lawyer Quico Canseco, who lost the 2008 primary despite establishment backing.

Ads: The NRCC is dipping into its skimpy funds to hit three veteran Dems who voted “yes” on health care with weeklong runs of TV spots: Reps. Vic Snyder, John Spratt, and Earl Pomeroy. Snyder seems to have a real race on his hands against Tim Griffin and Spratt is up against a state Senator, but Pomeroy faces only token opposition so far.

Fundraising: This is odd; the NRCC and NRSC have canceled their President’s Dinner for next year. The joint fundraiser, held in June each year, is one of the Republicans’ biggest fundraising nights of the year. (Remember the brouhaha last year when Sarah Palin couldn’t decide whether or not she was headlining the fest.) The committees are exploring other more effective ways to fundraise now that they, uh, don’t have a Republican President anymore.

Election law: Important election reforms passed the state House in Ohio yesterday, although it remains to be seen what happens in the GOP-held Senate. Reforms include: increasing number of locations for in-person early voting, requiring absentee ballots to be ready earlier, simplifying voter ID requirements, reducing the number of categories that require provisional ballots, adding automatic motor-voter and high-school-graduation registration, and automatically updating voting records upon changes to driver’s license records.