NC-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-03, NC-10: Results Thread

NC-Sen (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Kay Hagan 803,121 60.32
Jim Neal 240,705 18.08

NC-Gov (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Beverly Perdue 835,639 55.92
Richard Moore 594,725 39.90

NC-Gov (R):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Fred Smith 185,817 36.95
Pat McCrory 232,173 46.17

NC-03 (R):

17 of 17 Counties Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Walter Jones 22,703 59.52
Joe McLaughlin 15,441 40.48

NC-10 (R):

9 of 10 Counties Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Patrick McHenry 33,020 66.51
Lance Sigmon 16,624 33.49


9:25PM: McCrory is pulling away from Smith for the Gov nod — 47 to 37.

9:22PM: Neal sure got whipped tonight.

8:00PM Eastern: Deliciously mediocre early numbers for McHenry. I don’t want to speak too soon, but this race could be worth watching in the fall — the Democratic candidate, veteran and hero Daniel Johnson, has raised a strong amount of cash so far.

Indiana and North Carolina Predictions Thread

Polls close in Indiana at 6pm Eastern and in North Carolina at 7:30pm Eastern (although some metropolitan areas may keep their polls open until 8:30), so there’s still plenty of time to post your predictions for tonight’s contests.

We ran through the races worth watching in these two states last week, but the contests that we’ll be following are:

  • IN-Gov (D): Jill Long Thompson v. Jim Schellinger

  • IN-07 (D): Andre Carson v. Woody Myers (and others)

  • NC-Sen (D): Kay Hagan v. Jim Neal

  • NC-Gov (D & R): Beverly Perdue v. Richard Moore; Fred Smith v. Pat McCrory (and others)

  • NC-03 (R): Walter Jones v. Joe McLaughlin

  • NC-10 (R): Patrick McHenry v. Lance Sigmon

    Feel free to post your predictions for these races in the comments.  Oh, and if you insist, you can give your presidential guesses as well.  Have at it.

  • May Election Preview: Races Worth Watching

    May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

    Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

    May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

    • LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

      We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

    May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

    • IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
    • IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
    • NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

      Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

    • NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
    • NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
    • NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

    May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

    • MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
    • NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
    • NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

    May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

    • KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
    • KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
    • OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
    • OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

      On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

    There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.

    OR-SEN, NE-SEN, NC-03, MD-01: GOP Attempts “Purge” of All Four Dissenters on Iraq

    (Cross-posted at MyDD.)

    Back in April, in the face of massive public support for a clear timeline to end the war in Iraq, only two Republicans in the House and two in the Senate dared to buck the White House’s pressure tactics and vote for the Iraq Accountability Act. The four were Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD).

    Coincidentally, all four are now facing potential primary challenges from the right.

    In Nebraska, Sen. Hagel, the most noted opponent of Bush’s Iraq policy in his party, is facing a very real challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning (who even led Hagel in a recent primary poll):

    “It’s pretty clear Nebraska voters understand Sen. Hagel is voting with the Democratic Party on the issue that they feel is most important at this time, which is the Iraq war, and that’s troubling to them”

    Meanwhile, in Oregon, Sen. Smith is facing the current wrath and potential candidacy of anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore for his perceived lack of partisan loyalty:

    “At the national level, Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of defeating Gordon Smith. After all he has done for liberals in Oregon, they still want to take him out, simply because he is a Republican. To them, a Republican in name only is still a Republican. Smith’s political vulnerability is no secret.”

    Rep. Walter “Freedom Fries” Jones’ marked turn away from supporting Bush’s Iraq policy has been the “single issue” encouraging Joseph McLaughlin, an obscure country commissioner, to challenge the seven-term Congressman from a “safe seat” in North Carolina:

    “A number of us have become very concerned about his drift to the left, espousing ideas that we don’t think reflect the views of the conservative base back in the district,” McLaughlin said. “Virtually every major vote on the war on terror, he has lined up with the liberals.”

    And in Maryland, Rep. Gilchrest is facing a well-organized primary challenge from right-wing State Senator Andy Harris:

    “People across the country desire to return to the Reagan values that brought the Republican Party to power – fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense, traditional values and an optimistic view of this country and its role as a world leader,” Harris said.

    Primary challenges are wonderful things. In our two-party, big-money system with engineered super-safe districts for incumbents, it’s where the real small-d democracy gets done these days. The more choices for voters, the better. These four potential primaries, as well as the presidential primaries in the early states, will have the added benefit of providing an early look for the entire nation at the direction GOP activists want the Republican party to take on Iraq.

    However, this pro-democracy opinion of primaries (especially those where Iraq is a major issue) was certainly not one shared by right-wing and “centrist” politicians, “civil” pro-war pundits, and other members of the “reasonable” traditional media establishment, all of whom happily took part in last summer’s Rove-inspired media orgy demonizing the year’s most significant primary challenge and grassroots movement as nothing but an attempted party “purge.” (Nevermind that the incumbent in question actually promised to quit the party himself before the primary, and then swiftly followed up on it after losing).

    So, a question: How many of the following figures who were so quick to see Stalinism in Stamford last August will be denouncing pro-war Republicans for their attempted quadruple “purge” this cycle? Don’t hold your breath:

    It’s no wonder that so much time is being given to the Democratic primary in Connecticut, and that so many voices are being heard. The ideological triumphalists proclaim it a great renewal in the Democratic Party, beginning with the glorious purge of Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

    William F. Buckley, August 12, 2006

    It should be noted that both Cheney and Mehlman pointedly referred to the Lamont win as a “purge,” echoing the seminal anti-Lamont editorial by the Democratic Leadership Council from two months ago which used the term eight times. They were joined in that effort last week by virtually the entire conservative punditry establishment, with everyone from Cal Thomas (“Purge by Taliban Democrats” was his clever innovation) to American Conservative Union chief Patrick Keene (“The purge that began with the McGovernite seizure of the party . . . “) to Foundation for Defense of Democracies president Clifford May (“The August Purge of Lieberman,” a funny historical malapropism; May was trying to echo Soviet Russia, which had an August putsch, not a purge) to Fox’s John McIntyre to a whole host of others decrying Lamont’s supporters as rich, elitist, neo-commie liberals bent on softening us all up for a terrorist attack, apparently just for the pure, America-hating thrill of it.

    Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, August 15, 2006

    Meanwhile, the New York Times’s David Brooks lashed out at the “liberal inquisition” unfolding in Connecticut, the type of phenomenon that could be understood “only [by] experts in moral manias and mob psychology.” ABC’s Cokie Roberts sang from the choir sheet this Sunday morning, announcing a Lamont win would mean “a disaster for the Democratic Party.”

    Roberts’s ABC colleague Jake Tapper labeled Lieberman’s challenge as a “a party purge of a moderate Democrat”; a cliché repeated constantly among the talking heads. Los Angeles Times columnist Jonathan Chait ridiculed grassroots Lamont activists by suggesting “their technique of victory-via-purge is on display in Connecticut.” Martin Peretz, editor in chief of The New Republic, who in a recent radio interview refused to say whether he actually wanted Democrats to gain control of Congress in November, denounced the “thought-enforcers of the left” supporting Lamont, whom Peretz mocked as “Karl Rove’s dream come true.”

    Earlier in the campaign, Washington Post columnist David Broder dismissed Connecticut’s progressives as “elitist insurgents.” Over at the Rothenberg Political Report, Beltway mainstay Stuart Rothenberg was in a tizzy that Lamont’s win would “only embolden the crazies in the [Democratic] party,” the “bomb-throwers.” (Like Broder, Rothenberg opted for terror terminology to describe the democratic process unfolding in Connecticut.)

    Eric Boehlert, The Nation, August 11, 2006

    “And as I look at what happened yesterday, it strikes me that it’s a perhaps unfortunate and significant development from the standpoint of the Democratic Party, that what it says about the direction the party appears to be heading in when they, in effect, purge a man like Joe Lieberman, who was just six years ago their nominee for Vice President, is of concern, especially over the issue of Joe’s support with respect to national efforts in the global war on terror.”

    Vice President Cheney, August 9, 2006