Canadian Election Results Thread #2

12:00am: SSP is gonna wrap it up for tonight.  The implosion of the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois were quite remarkable…as was the vote splitting that allowed Harper to grab his majority.

11:51pm: The NDP may have done well in Quebec, but it didn’t do so hot in the Prairies.  Aside from Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP was shut-out in the Saskatchewan and Alberta; the NDP lost two in Manitoba, one each to the Grits/Tories.

RESULTS: Elections Canada | CBC | Globe & Mail

Canadian Election Results Thread #1

11:30pm: SSP’s home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona is held by the NDP…the only non-Tory seat in Alberta.

11:21pm: Almost two hours after polls closed in Quebec, the Bloc finally has its first seat, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia. (jeffmd here – I think I figured out why I like Quebec riding names, it lets me pretend I stil know French!).

11:13pm: Harper should be grateful for ridings like Bramlea-Gore-Malton (37 Con-32 NDP-27 Lib) and Scaborough Centre, 36 Con-31 NDP-31 Lib.  Notably, the Tory vote actually dropped 1% from 2008…but the NDP/Lib split hands the seat to Harper.

10:54pm: The decimation of the Grits and Bloc is stunning.  Libs elected/leading in 31 ridings; the Bloc is leading in only 4.

10:51pm: CBC is now calling a Conservative majority for Stephen Harper.

10:50pm: Moving further west, Green Party leader Elizabeth May is out to an early lead in Saanich–Gulf Islands over Tory incumbent Gary Lunn.

10:45pm: Tories now leading or elected in 165 ridings.  Tory majority looking more and more likely.

10:37pm: Tories are leading or elected in 158 ridings now; 155 is the magic number for a majority.

10:34pm: In my home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, incumbent NDPer Linda Duncan is leading by a 53-40 margin, but a lot of votes are outstanding.

10:33pm: The power of vote splitting! Brampton/Mississauga could go from 7/8 Liberal to an 8-0 Tory shutout.

10:29pm: Tories are now leading in 150 ridings; NDs in 104. Liberals in just 32, BQ 4.

10:28pm: Hah — in just Toronto alone, the Tories are leading in 9 of 23 Toronto seats, up from 0.

10:22pm: Michael Ignatieff is losing to a Tory, and Gilles Duceppe is losing to a New Democrat. Interesting times.

10:18pm: Things are just moving so fast right now, but we’re really on the cusp of a Conservative majority government with an extremely robust NDP opposition.

10:12pm: CBC has projected that the NDP will overtake the Liberals as the official opposition in Parliament. Harper has a government, but we’re still unsure whether or not he’s won a majority.

10:07pm: Checking in on the party leaders, Grit leader Michael Ignatieff is leading by 1 vote in his Toronto riding of Etobicoke–Lakeshore.  A few ridings east, in Toronto–Danforth, NDP leader Jack Layton has 64%.  With just one poll reporting in Laurier–Sainte-Marie, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe finds himself in 3rd!  Nothing yet from Harper’s Calgary Southwest or Green Party would-be Elizabeth May’s Saanich–Gulf Islands.

10:00pm: Results in from the Atlantic provinces:

  • PEI: steady at 3 Lib, 1 Con.

  • Newfoundland and Labrador: Contrary to earlier reports, the Tories didn’t get shut out here. 4 Lib, 2 NDP, 1 Con.  Net shift of two from the Grits to NDP.  Libs do hold Avalon, though.

  • Nova Scotia: 4 Con, 3 NDP, 2 Lib, with two more Libs leading.  Would be a shift of one from the Libs to the NDP.

  • New Brunswick: 7 Con, 1 Lib, 1 NDP, with one more Tory leading.  Would be a net shift of two Lib>Con.

Polls are finally closing in all of Canada at 10pm Eastern; we’ll soon get our first verified election results at that point. Hang Hold on to your butts!

RESULTS: Elections Canada | CBC | Globe & Mail

Canadian Election Predictions Thread

Polls have closed in Newfoundland, but we likely won’t hear any concrete results for a little while yet — so we still have plenty of time to discuss your predictions for Canada’s 41st federal election.

Later on, we’ll be blogging live from Edmonton-Strathcona! Stick around; this could get pretty crazy. As mentioned in the comments (terje in particular explains the situation well), Canada has a rather draconian election reporting law that prevents media outlets from reporting results until polls have closed in all parts of the country — that means that we won’t see any official results until 10pm Eastern. Stuff may leak out on Twitter about the Atlantic and Maritime provinces, but little else until that magic hour. Wikipedia has a list of contentious ridings here.

Per Wikipedia, here’s a breakdown of seats in the current parliament, by party and province: