• CA-Sen: Rasmussen piggybacked another California Senate poll on their gubernatorial poll from yesterday. Despite finding some gains for Meg Whitman yesterday, they don't see any improvement for Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore. Barbara Boxer leads Fiorina 46-37 (it was 49-39 in September) and DeVore 46-36 (previously 46-37).
• DE-Sen: Mike Castle's fundraising was weak earlier this year (in fact, that was why most people figured he wasn't going to run for Senate), but now Republican Senators are moving to quickly fill up his coffers. Four Senators gave large contributions, the largest being $10,000 from Thad Cochran. Castle had $853K in his last report.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: The shortest possible explanation in New York is that nobody still has the faintest clue what Rudy Giuliani is up to. Food for thought, though, comes from the new Marist poll (pdf). They find Giuliani beating Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand 54-40. They also found Giuliani with the upper hand in a potential (if extremely unlikely) primary against ex-Gov. George Pataki; Giuliani demolishes him, 71-24. (For some reason, Marist didn't poll Gillibrand/Pataki, but Rasmussen just did, finding Gillibrand beating Pataki 45-42. Rasmussen didn't poll Gillibrand/Giuliani, though.)
Marist (pdf) also has gubernatorial numbers, which don't offer any surprises beyond the sheerly absurd dimensions of David Paterson's unpopularity. Paterson has a 20/76 approval, and a 30/63 verdict on whether people want him to run for re-election. Paterson loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo, 72-21, although he ties Rick Lazio in the general, 44-44. Cuomo makes short work of Lazio, 69-24. They also have Giuliani numbers (which are looking obsolete now): Rudy annihilates Lazio in the primary, 84-13, and beats Paterson 60-35, but loses to Cuomo, 53-43.
• CA-Gov: Republican Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell announces that he's passed the $1 million cumulative mark in fundraising for the gubernatorial race, which indicates he's at least getting some traction as people notice he's polling well. In most states, that would be pretty impressive. In California, where you have to reach more than 30 million sets of eyeballs and where $1 million is Meg Whitman's budget just for ivory backscratchers, though, it's kind of a drop in the bucket.
• OR-Gov: As quickly as he appeared, he went away; former Hewlett-Packard VP Steve Shields pulled the plug on his brief Democratic gubernatorial campaign, not having had much luck on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, SoS Bill Bradbury got a big boost in his uphill climb against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber. Bradbury's environmentalist bona fides earned him an endorsement from Al Gore. (Also a likely factor: a long-running behind-the-scenes feud between Kitz and Gore.)
• TX-Gov: Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison are both out with TV ads as they enter the stretch run toward their March gubernatorial primary. Perry attacks Washington (and by extension, KBH, who works there), while KBH is more intent on explaining that she's keeping her Senate job to fight against Democratic health care proposals.
• CO-07: Going from being a music promoter to a Representative is a strange career leap, but that's what Jimmy Lakey is fixing to do. The Colorado Republican has opened an exploratory committee to go up against Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter, although he'll need to get past Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier (who dropped down from the Senate race) first.
• FL-02: Al Lawson, the African-American state Senator who's challenging Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd in a Democratic primary, is out with an internal poll via The Research Group that actually gives Lawson the lead: 35-31. Boyd was a vote against health care reform and the stimulus, which may provide him some cover in the general in this now R+9 district, but probably hurts him in the primary, where African-Americans make up a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate.
• IA-03: The appearance yesterday of well-known wrasslin' coach Jim Gibbons was no deterrent to state Sen. Brad Zaun, setting up an epic smackdown in the GOP primary. Zaun, formerly the mayor of Des Moines suburb Urbandale, had made clear his interest in the race before Gibbons surfaced; he'll formally launch his campaign in early December.
• IL-10: State Rep. Beth Coulson, probably the only Republican in the field in the 10th with the name rec and moderate profile needed to overcome the 10th's Democratic lean, is meeting with RNC head Michael Steele today to discuss her campaign -- the same Steele who has warned moderates that, in the wake of NY-23, he's gunning for them. She's loudly touting the meeting in the press, although it's unclear whether she's trying to make clear she's a GOP team player, or that she's trying to play up her moderate reputation by standing up to Steele.
• MD-01: If there's one freshman Democrat who's looking endangered coming into 2010, it's Frank Kratovil, who barely won in a dark-red district thanks in large measure to a lousy opponent (Andy Harris) and an Obama downdraft. The Harris camp is now out with an internal poll via the Tarrance Group that quantifies that, giving that same lousy opponent a 52-39 edge over Kratovil, despite Kratovil's 43/30 favorables.
• MN-01: Former state Rep. Allen Quist followed through on his plans to challenge Rep. Tim Walz in the rural 1st District. Quist has been out of the limelight for a while, but was a darling of the religious right in the 1990s; his wife is Michele Bachmann's district director.
• NY-23: Appropriately enough, given that Fort Drum is the largest employer in his district, Bill Owens was given a seat on the Armed Services Committee, taking former Rep. Ellen Tauscher's spot. Owens himself is a former Air Force captain, and his predecessor, Army Secretary John McHugh, had been the top-ranking Republican on the committee. (D)
Also in the 23rd, it's all over but the shouting of the wronged wingnuts. The Watertown Times reports that Owens leads Hoffman by 3,105 with 3,072 absente ballots left to count. Also worth noting is the increasinglyhostile tone of the Watertown Times (maybe the district's largest newspaper) to Hoffman and his post-electoral antics, which bodes ill for getting a fair shake out of them if he runs again.
• NRCC: There's a very important addendum to yesterday's story about the NRCC's big TV spot ad buy to go against Vic Snyder, John Spratt, and Earl Pomeroy. The total of the ad buy was $6,300, including only 35 gross rating points in the Charlotte market (2,000 GRPs are considered "saturation-level"), and the ads are running only on Fox News. In other words, the cash-strapped NRCC isn't paying for anybody to actually see the ads -- they're just a foot in the door to get media coverage of the ads.
• Redistricting: The DLCC's blog has an interesting look at the redistricting conundrums in Louisiana, where the loss of a House seat and a Katrina-remodeled population loom large. Dems ostensibly control the legislature but also face a Republican gubernatorial veto (although Dems control the tiebreaking Supreme Court, too).
• AR-Sen: PPP's Tom Jensen has some interesting crosstabs from their AR-02 poll, which shed some light on Blanche Lincoln's unique set of problems. Lincoln generates only lukewarm enthusiasm from her base: Barack Obama gets a 78% approval among Dems in the district, Rep. Vic Snyder is at 75%, and Mark Pryor is at 61%, but Lincoln is at only 43%, with 30% of Dems thinking she's too conservative (although that may be coming to a head right now with her obstructionist role in the health care debate, which may not be much of an issue one year from now). Moving to the left, though, will cause her to lose votes with independents, though, among whom 49% think she's too liberal.
• CT-Sen, CT-05: Local GOP party poohbahs are sounding eager to push state Sen. Sam Caligiuri out of the Senate race, where he's rather, uh, underutilized, and into the 5th, for a race against Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy; Caligiuri says he'll consider it. Problem is, Justin Bernier is already running there, and has had some fundraising success and gotten NRCC "Young Gun" status; as you might expect, Bernier is crying foul.
• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has been trying to hide from his previous stimulus support, but Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson has the goods on him, dragging out an old interview from spring in which Crist says "absolutely" he would have voted for the stimulus had he been in the Senate at the time. Here's one bit of good news for Crist, though; Marco Rubio's once-perfect A rating from the National Rifle Association is about to drop, thanks to Rubio's compromise (from back when he was House speaker) on the take-your-gun-to-work law that recently became law.
• IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman has an internal poll of his own now, and while it doesn't give numbers for the Dem primary matchup between Hoffman and frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias, it does point to some vulnerabilities for Giannoulias. The poll claims that without message-testing, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Giannoulias 40-37 and leads Hoffman 40-30, but once positives and negatives are read, Kirk beats Giannoulias 47-30 and Hoffman beats Kirk 42-36. The negatives involve the Giannoulias family bank, which apparently has been connected to Tony Rezko. Meanwhile, Kirk took an embarrassing hit from the conservative Chicago Tribune editorial board, whose response to Kirk's flip-flopping and fearmongering on trying terrorists in New York boiled down to "Give us a break." Wondering why Kirk is so transparently turning into a right-winger? Kirk's looking increasingly nervous about erstwhile opponent Patrick Hughes, who is currently seeking out a Jim DeMint endorsement.
• KY-Sen, NH-Sen: The NRSC is claiming it's not getting involved in primary fights with fundraising, but you can't make party leadership's intentions any clearer than when Mitch McConnell hosts a fundraiser in New York on Dec. 7 for Trey Grayson and Kelly Ayotte. With both candidates facing mounting anti-establishment challenges, it seems like the bad publicity back home generated by these appearances -- more grist for the movement conservative mill -- might outweigh the financial benefit.
• NJ-Sen: Now that recently unemployed TV pundit Lou Dobbs has some time on his hands, he told Bill O'Reilly he's considering a run for the Senate in New Jersey. There isn't a seat available until 2012 (when Dobbs will be 67) -- he'd be going up against Bob Menendez that year. Dobbs vs. Menendez? Hmmm, you can't get any more weighed down with symbolism than that.
• SC-Sen: The county GOP in Berkeley County (in the Charleston suburbs) was prepared to have its own censure vote against Lindsey Graham, but they called off the vote after Graham's chief of staff promised to meet with them first.
• CA-Gov (pdf): Lots of people have taken notice that the Republican field in the governor's race isn't a diverse bunch: three sorta-moderates from Silicon Valley. San Jose State University took a poll of those who would seemingly know the candidates the best: Republican likely voters in "Silicon Valley" (Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, plus small parts of Alameda and Santa Cruz Counties). Perhaps thanks to Tom Campbell's tenure in the House representing much of this area, he has a wide lead, at 39%, compared with 11 for Meg Whitman and 7 for Steve Poizner.
• MI-Gov, MI-08: In case there was any doubt that Rep. Mike Rogers (the Michigan one) was going to run for re-election to his House seat and not for governor, we found a statement from way back in February to that effect. (H/t to Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood, a blog devoted to all things MI-08.)
• MN-Gov: Rasmussen looks at the still-coalescing primary fields in the Minnesota governor's races, and seems to be finding very name-recognition-driven results right now. On the Democratic side, most of the votes are going to former Senator Mark Dayton and Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak; both poll at 30, trailed by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 8 and former state legislator Matt Entenza at 6. On the Republican side, ex-Sen. Norm Coleman dominates, with 50%; however, he's not in the race, at least not yet, and is probably the only name that people know. Among the rest of the rabble, former House minority leader Marty Seifert is doing the best, at 11, with 5 for Laura Brod and 1 for Tom Emmer.
• OR-Gov: Most people have already mentally ruled out Rep. Peter DeFazio from the governor's race, but he just said that he's still somewhat interested, and that he won't be making up his mind on it until... next March? He doesn't seem too concerned about the delay, as Oregon law would let him transfer over his federal dollars and he alludes to private polling showing him in a dead heat with John Kitzhaber. While I still doubt he'll follow through, that raises the question of who might fill a vacancy in OR-04; it's looking less and less like it would be Springfield's Republican mayor Sid Leiken, who was just fined $2,250 by the state for the phantom poll that may or may not have been conducted by Leiken's mom.
• TX-Gov: Little-known fact: Kay Bailey Hutchison, despite the seeming overall malaise in her campaign, has a big edge in endorsements from Texas House Republicans. She has the endorsements of 10 of 20 (including Kay Granger, Kenny Marchant, and Michael Burgess), perhaps indicative of Rick Perry's increasingly strident anti-Washington rhetoric. (Not that that will help much when the actual electorate is in an increasingly anti-establishment mood.) A couple other Dems are looking at the race: hair care magnate Farouk Shami (who's willing to bring his own money to the race) is officially launching his campaign on Thursday, while El Paso-based outgoing state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh is publicly weighing a run.
• FL-19: West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel, who would have been maybe the highest-profile possible primary challenger to state Sen. Ted Deutch in the upcoming special election in the 19th, has decided not to run. Deutch has been endorsed by outgoing Robert Wexler and has an increasingly clear path to the nomination. Meanwhile, the only GOPer looking interested in running in the dark-blue district is Ed Lynch, who lost to Wexler last year.
• IL-06: Here's a little more information about Benjamin Lowe, who's the only Dem running in the 6th against Peter Roskam. While he's something of a political unknown, it turns out he's well-connected in the religious left community as well as the green jobs movement. He's a graduate of evangelical Wheaton College (which is in the district) and has been active in the last few years in organizing students at other evangelical colleges on issues of environmental stewardship.
• NY-13: I don't know if anything can top last year's NY-13 race for political trainwrecks, but the Staten Island GOP may have gotten switched onto that same track again. Michael Allegretti, a 31-year old who caught attention for raising $200K for the race already, is a lawyer who also owns a share of the family business, Bayside Fuel and Oil -- which employed Gambino family capo Joe "Joe Butch" Corrao for several decades. Over $40K of Allegretti's contributions came from family members working for Bayside. To add to the made-for-TV drama: Allegretti's potential Republican primary opponent, Michael Grimm, was on the FBI squad charged with investigating said crime family.
• NY-19: Republican Greg Ball -- who puts the "Ass" in Assemblyman -- is out with an internal poll putting him within single digits of Rep. John Hall. Hall leads the Hall/Ball matchup, 48-43 -- although for some reason the poll was taken only in the portion of the district that's east of the Hudson River. Hall still has strong favorables, at 57/25, while Ball is at 40/28.
• NY-23: Recounting in NY-23 is still on track to see Rep. Bill Owens remain in the House; Doug Hoffman is down 2,951 votes with 6,123 left, so about the best he can hope for is to lose by about 2,000. The Hoffman saga just got weirder when yesterday Hoffman, goaded along by his patron Glenn Beck, unconceded on national TV -- yet today, his spokesperson un-un-conceded, not that any of that is legally binding, of course.
• NRCC: If the Republicans are going to make a serious dent in the Democratic edge in the House next year, they're going to have to refill the NRCC's coffers, which are still lagging the DCCC. Party leadership smacked down members in a closed-door session, trying to get them to pony up their $15K dues. The Hill also has an interesting profile of CA-22's Kevin McCarthy, an up-and-comer who's the NRCC recruitment chair now and likely to head the NRCC at some point in the near future. Turns out that McCarthy is quite the student of Rahm Emanuel.
• Mayors: SurveyUSA polls the runoff in the Atlanta mayor's race, and they have quite the reversal of fortune for Mary Norwood, who led all polls before November and finished first in the election. State Sen. Kasim Reed, who finished 2nd, now leads Norwood, 49-46. Reed leads 69-25 among African-American voters, indicating that he picked up almost all of 3rd-place finisher Lisa Borders' support.
• Special elections: Two legislative specials are on tap tonight. The big one is California's AD-72, a Republican-leaning seat in the OC left vacant by the resignation of Mike Duvall (who resigned in disgrace after bragging about his affair with a lobbyist). It seems to be mostly a contest between two GOPers, Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby and activist Linda Ackerman (who's been making much of Norby's four divorces). Since this is California, assuming one of the Republicans doesn't finish over 50%, it'll move on to another round where the top Republican faces off against Dem John MacMurray. Also, in Mississippi, there's a contest in Biloxi-based HD-117, to replace Republican state Rep. Michael Janus; candidates aren't identified by party on the special election ballot, but the contestants are Patrick Collins (who ran against Janus several times) and Scott DeLano.
• Redistricting: You might want to check out the website called "Redistricting the Nation," presented by GIS software company Avencia but full of fun widgets. Most interestingly, you can evaluate the compactness of any congressional district by four different criteria, and see the worst offenders in each category.
• FL-Sen: Here's a big score for Marco Rubio, who's quickly cementing himself as darling for the conservative movement. He got the keynote address at CPAC's 2010 gathering, the conservative movement's version of Lollapalooza. Charlie Crist's response? Re-flip-flop on the stimulus! Today he said it was "pretty clear" he did support it at the time. The civil war in Florida is also resulting in a larger spotlight being shone on state party chair (and key Crist ally) Jim Greer, who's the subject of an interesting (and very critical) Miami Herald piece.
• KY-Sen: A strange kerfuffle erupted in the GOP primary in Kentucky, when Rand Paul earlier this week declined to promise to support Mitch McConnell for minority leader in the face of a hypothetical leadership challenge by Jim DeMint. Paul's rival, SoS Trey Grayson, pledged fealty to McConnell and attacked Paul for being more beholden to his "Libertarian donor base" than his fellow Kentuckians. Then, yesterday, Paul met privately with McConnell in Louisville, and after having had his brain implant installed a productive conversation, emerged filled with praise for McConnell and saying he had "no reason not to support him."
• MA-Sen (pdf): Another poll from local pollsters Suffolk give a big lead to AG Martha Coakley, who's pulling in 44% of the Democratic primary vote. She's trailed by Stephen Pagliuca at 17, Rep. Michael Capuano at 16, and Alan Khazei at 3. (Coakley was at 47 and Capuano at 9 in September according to Suffolk.) Also, there appears to be one route to victory for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown: make sure that Alan Khazei somehow wins the primary. Brown beats Khazei 33-30, while losing 58-27 to Coakley, 48-29 to Capuano, and 49-27 to Pagliuca. (Brown leads perennial candidate Jack E. Robinson 45-7 in the GOP primary.)
Meanwhile, Capuano got another endorsement from among the ranks of his House colleagues, this one pretty high-profile: Nancy Pelosi. Pagliuca, on the other hand, is trying to dig out of his self-created hole, when he "misunderstood" a debate question and said that he supports reinstating a military draft.
• AL-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks seems to have hit on an issue that differentiates him from Rep. Artur Davis in their Democratic gubernatorial primary fight: health care reform. Davis voted against it (seemingly earning him the sudden enmity of the entire netroots), and now Sparks has been loudly touting the public option, as he did at an appearance before the Madison County Democratic Women yesterday.
• CO-Gov: State Senate minority leader Josh Penry thumbed his nose rather unsubtly at ex-Rep. Scott McInnis as he departed the governor's primary race, saying in a recent interview that not only was he not endorsing McInnis, but also that he still felt that he would be the better candidate. Is he heading for a Tom Tancredo endorsement instead? (After all, Tancredo did a lot to boost Penry's campaign.) We can only hope.
• IL-Gov: State GOP chair (and would-be Mark Kirk antagonist) Andy McKenna got a substantial boost in his quest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. He got the endorsement of Tom Cross, the state House minority leader.
• MD-Gov: Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich seems to be giving more weight to the idea of a rematch against Martin O'Malley, if recent comments to the press are any indication. The Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey may be giving him some added incentive.
• TX-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Rick Perry opening up a big lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary: 45-36, with 4% to Paulist Debra Medina. This is a big reversal from September's Rasmussen poll, which gave KBH a 40-38 edge. Hutchison is still racing to the right, as she said that she'd be likely to try to opt out of the public option as governor, but Perry is leading that race too, cheerfully let us know that Barack Obama is "hell-bent on taking America towards a socialist country."
• DE-AL: State Rep. Greg Lavelle, one of the names dropped by Rep. Mike Castle as suggestions for a successor, said that he won't take on the uphill task of trying to hold Castle's seat. Businessman Fred Cullis is the only Republican running so far.
• NC-11: Rep. Heath Shuler's role in a 2007 land swap has the potential to hurt him next year. The Tennessee Valley Authority's inspector general cleared him of wrongdoing in the matter (as did the House Ethics committee), but the TVA is saying that Shuler wasn't honest to the press about it, when he said that there hadn't been any contact between himself and the TVA.
• NY-23: Although there's nothing to suggest that Doug Hoffman is in a place where he can catch up to Bill Owens, it'll still be a while till the election can be certified -- possibly not till early next month. (Unfortunately, this means putting off the final results of our predictions contest from last week! We'll keep you posted.)
• SC-04: Republican Rep. Bob Inglis keeps backing away from his party's right wing (and probably away from his job, in his dark-red district). He said that he can't "identify" with what we called the "hard right." Interestingly, he still identifies as "religious right," but seems to counterpose that against the teabaggers' movement, also saying: "As a religious right guy, I'm thinking there was a guy named Jesus who had some things to say about these kinds of concepts. And I don't want to live in a society that lets a few test cases die on the steps of the hospital. I can't go there."
• VA-St. Sen.: The Democrats still control the Virginia state Senate (thanks to none of its seats being in the balance in the election last week), but it's a fragile 21-19 edge. Especially troublesome: 83-year-old Charles Colgan only reluctantly ran for reelection in 2007, Ralph Northam considered flipping to the Republicans earlier this year, and now Bob McDonnell seems interested in taking a page from Steve Beshear and Eliot Spitzer by appointing Senate Dems to cushy jobs in his administration. On the plus side, though, there are two special elections coming up, to replace Republicans who were elected to other positions last week. The seat of Ken Stolle (new Virginia Beach sheriff) is pretty Republican-leaning, but new AG Ken Cuccinelli's seat in Democratic-leaning Fairfax County is a potential pickup.
• Redistricting: This is interesting; Republicans keep pushing to make redistricting fairer in Indiana, despite that they'll control the process coming out of the next census. SoS Todd Rokita has already pushed for laws to make it a more neutral process, and now state Senate President Pro Tem David Long is pushing for an independent commission to draw legislative boundaries.
• Votes: Here's a first: Republicans actually regretting doing something wrong. They're privately saying that they "failed to anticipate" the political consequences of a no vote on the Franken amendment, that leaves them exposed to charges of insensitivity to rape victims and hands ammo to Democrats. (Well, maybe that's more regretting getting caught, rather than regretting doing something wrong...)
• OFA: Organizing for America is firing up the Batsignal, summoning volunteers on the ground in 32 districts that were won by Obama but are held by House Republicans. The plan is for the volunteers to visit the Reps' offices and demand support for health care reform.
• CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary's frontrunner by most people's estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are "unchanged," and touts his foreign policy background, saying that's much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon's role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn't win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures -- certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)
• FL-Sen: Here's about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush's sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.
• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton's campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg's campaign this year.
• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state's campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he'd filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn't directly ask questions about the governor's race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.
• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he'll make a decision "one way or the other" by the week's end.
• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC's favorite in the Republican field, that didn't deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.
• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan -- unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.
• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not -- state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.
• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder's decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.
• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she's likely to take a pass.
• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.
• NV-02: We've got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state's Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).
• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava's collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).
• OH-02: What's with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that's somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He's sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.
• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it's unclear whether she'll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.
• PA-11: Third time's the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)
• PA-17: Here's an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden's coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio's 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.
• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it's a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.
• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the 'no' votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah's only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn't presented Matheson with much trouble lately.
• MI-St. Sen.: Here's an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don't pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year's Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems' preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.
• Mayors: The Seattle mayor's race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn's lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.
• Ads: In the wake of this weekend's health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted 'no.' They aren't planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 'no' votes, saying it's "payback" time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.
• Demographics: If you're like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.
Since that time, Dave's Redistricting Application has become available for the state. The Application is an invaluable tool in doing these maps. It has helped me greatly in trying to come up with a new, better version of a plan for the state. I have also taken reader comments from my last diary into consideration in drawing this new plan for California. The comments have helped me greatly in terms of refining the districts here. As several readers rightfully noted, several of the districts I drew last time were not Democratic enough to assure that they would be virtually guaranteed to elect Democrats, and parts of the previous map were too gerrymandered. Here's my new version ...
Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010, Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.
But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party's hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.
The most recent example is the 2nd District's Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. "Moderate" Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.
Here's the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he'll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.
Here is a bipartisan redistricting of Alabama with a slight Democratic lean. My goal was to keep the representation at 4-3 Republican. I know Bobby Bright is a Conservative blue dog so I gave him a heavily Black district. This should make his voting record more Liberal or a Black candidate could easily challenge him in a primary and win. At the same time, I kept Artur Davis's district majority Black to protect his sucessor if he vacates his seat to run against Richard Shelby. I thought a 4-3 Democratic map would be too risky and too grotesquely gerrymandered. As for the four Republicans, they are all safer than they used to be, including Mike Rogers. I had to make some sacrifices but I thought it would be better if we had 2 solid seats and 1 shaky one instead of just one solid seat and two shaky ones. I still was unable to strengthen Griffith because I could not go Cleo Fields and send a finger down to the Black belt. Still, I could not avoid an extremely grotesque gerrymander but there have been worse. Here are the maps:
1st District Jo Banner (R) Blue
Yes, this district grows more convoluted. I added Covington, Geneva counties and Houston Counties to the east which are heavily Republican. I removed Monroe County which leans Republican but has some Democratic areas. The main change to this district was sending a finger from Bobby Bright's district down to Mobile to take in Black precincts. I kept in Republican parts of Mobile so I probably kept Banner's home in here. I kept his district contiguous by water with Mobile Bay. The courts may object to this district but since it gets more Republican, Banner should be happy. McCain probably won 70% of the vote here, up from 61% in the old district. Demographics are 16% Black and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.
2nd District Bobby Bright (D) Green
He keeps his Montgomery County home base but besides that, his district completely changes. I removed heavily Republican southeastern Alabama from his district. I replaced it with all of Montgomery County and some Democratic counties currently in the 3rd such as Macon and the 7th such as Dallas. Yes, this district is the culprit of the Mobile County finger. I sent up the finger to Talladega to stregthen the 2nd and 3rd districts for their respective parties. Overall, I wanted to knock down two birds with one stone in this district. Not only would there be another Black majority district in Alabama that was heavily Democratic, Bobby Bright will have a tough time holding onto the seat if a Black candidate challenges him in the primary. Unless Steve Cohen from Memphis decided to move here and run, Bright should probably lose. A possible candidate would be the Liberal Black mayor of Mobile, Sam Jones. He is pretty old but he was also the first Black mayor of Mobile. Overall, this district looks set to change. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 57% Black and 38% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
3rd District Mike Rogers (R) Purple
To protect the 2nd district, I had to stregthen Rogers because it was impossible to make the 2nd district safe and keep the 3rd vulnerable. Rogers won only 53% of the vote in 2008 against Democrat Joshua Segall so Rogers should be thrilled with the new plan. I made some drastic changes to protect him by removing heavily Democratic Montgomery, Macon and part of Russel Counties. I added heavily Republican counties to the south of the old district. As a bonus, I removed Segall's home in Montgomery into the 2nd so Rogers now has no strong challenger. Just to shake Rogers up, I removed his home and put it in the 4th district. Overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 33% to 22%, so McCain win to probably 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.
4th District Rodney Aderholt (R) Red
I made some minor changes to the district but McCain still crushed Obama here. I removed Cullman and Blount Counties, both areas where residents of Birmingham are moving. More than 70% of the old district's residents lived in rural areas and more do now. I added Calhoun and Clerburne Counties, both rural and heavily Republican. Those counties explain the makeup of the entire district. McCain probably won 73% of the vote here, a bit lower than the current percentage but not much different. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
5th District Parker Griffith (D) Yellow
This was the district that is closest to its current form. I could not move it at all because this was the safest district I could make for Griffith. I hope we can keep him and if he survives 2010, he probably will keep winning. The problem is that in 2008 when he was elected, there was high Black turnout. In 2010, it should be normal unless Artur Davis runs for U.S Senate. Since Blacks are only 17% of the district's population, they do not make a big impact. I want most blue dogs to become Liberals but Griffith should remain as Conservative as he wants, he is another vote for a Democratic speaker. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Lean Democrat.
6th District Spencer Baucus (R) Teal
On the most part, I was able to leave Baucus alone. His old district was the most Republican district in the U.S in 2008 and should be even more so. I removed Chilton and Coosa Counties which are Republican but not as Republican as Cullman and Blount Counties which I put into the district. I pushed this district further out of slow growing Jefferson County so overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 11% to 8%. McCain probably won 80% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Republican.
7th District Artur Davis (D) Gray
Davis is currently the only Black member of Congress in Alabama. He may no longer be if he gets the nomination to become Governor in 2010. I feel that no one has viewed Davis as a formidable candidate. He might appeal to some white voters because he is pretty Conservative on a few issues. He could be the Harold Ford of Alabama without the corrupt family background. In Tennessee, Ford lost to moderate (for the South) Republican Bob Corker. Shelby is a Conservative and a turncoat which he probably could not use to his advantage. If Davis can bring Black turnout up to 30%, he would have to win about 30% of the white vote to win. In Alabama, this appears hard to do but Davis has a shot. Back to the district, I barely kept the 7th district majority Black because I had to trade some areas such as Hale County with the 2nd and I took in more of Jefferson County for population purposes. Even with the reduced Obama percentage, I expect Davis or his replacement to win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 51% Black and 44% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
The most likely redistricting scenario for 2010 is one in which Democrats control the House, Senate and Governor's office in Colorado. The Governor's office is the only one where there seems like there might be a problem. Mostly because Bill Ritter is no lock for re-election.
But the Democrats are in pretty solid (though not impregnable) control of the legislative branch at this point. They're up 38-27 in the CO House and up 21-14 in the Senate. Thanks to partisan battlin', redistricting last time around was, as the kids say, a hot mess.
Presumably, this time should be smoother and as long as the Democrats don't do any overly-obvious gerrymandering that risks a political backlash, they'll be fine. I would think that no hugely obvious changes in the composition of the delegation, currently 5-2 in favor of Dems, would do the trick on that front, even if they subtly manipulate the districts to their advantage. A gentle gerrymander, if you will....follow along for that!
I know this is not very realistic but I decided to go for a 7-4 Democratic plan. Democrats should control at least the State House but it would unlikely if they had total control of everything. Most Republicans would probably like most of the plan except that I weaken Frank Wolf from the 10th district. He claims to be a moderate but he is actually a Conservative. My other main priority was to strengthen all the Democratic incumbents. On a different note, this is the first time in awhile I have asked you which state I should do next. Here are the maps:
1st District (Blue) Robert Whitman (R)
Even if Republicans do not like the plan, they should be happy about this district. I removed all of Prince William County which is trending Democratic quickly. I also removed the slivers of Hampton and Newport News because Obama easily won those two areas. I also removed Caroline, Essex and King and Queen Counties because Obama barely won those counties and I wanted to put them in the 5th district. The new counties in the district were Hanover (which McCain won by 19,000 votes,) Orange and New Kent. The latter two are Republican. Even though the district looks rural, it is mostly concentrated on fast growing Republican suburbs. Stafford and Spotsylvania counties might be marginal in the 2012 presidential election as minorities and voters from D.C move there. Whitman should be safe here in a district where McCain probably won 56% of the vote, up from 51% under the old plan. The demographics are 15% Black (down from 18%) and 76% White. Status is Safe Republican.
2nd District Glenn Nye (D) Green
Nye barely won and Obama barely won the old district too. Even though Nye is a blue dog, a strong Republican could easily unseat him, especially in a year like 2010. So I added all of Hampton and Newport News to the district. Those two cities voted for Obama by a combined 51,000 votes. I may have overprotected Nye by creating a grotesque gerrymander including Black neighborhoods in Virginia Beach and White neighborhoods in Norfolk. The parts of Norfolk I included may not be heavily Democratic. I did at least remove Republican parts of Virginia Beach. Anyway, the district becomes heavily Democratic while the 3rd district is still majority Black. The only problem is that 3rd district Congressman Bobby Scott's home is in the district. Since the 3rd contains most of his old territory, he could just run there and be safe. Obama probably won 61% of the vote here. The demographics are 34% Black, 5% Hispanic and 54% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
3rd District Bobby Scott (D) Purple
The district changes a bit and no longer jumps over the river. It loses all of Hampton and Newport News while scooping up every Black precinct on the southern bank of the James River. Most of the new precincts are from the current 4th district. Also, the 3rd drops Republican New Kent County while extending an arm into Hopewell which leans Democratic and Petersburg where Obama won 89% of the vote. Besides these changes, I added a few more precincts in Richmond City and Henrico County. I also added some in Chesterfield County which had high Black turnout but McCain still won it. Basically, all the new additions came in here so I could strengthen the 4th district. With these small changes, Scott should be safe. Obama probably won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 55% Black and 36% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
4th District Randy Forbes (R) Red
I mentioned this map would be a gerrymander. I definitely made this district convoluted even though it is nothing compared to (you can probably figure that out.) Still, I kept in most of Chesapeake where Forbes lives. Since the 3rd district and the 5th took away all the heavily Black precincts, I sent this district west to take away Republican areas in the 5th and 9th districts. The district has a long string along the Virginia/North Carolina border to a clump of Republican counties formerly in the 5th and 9th districts. I see no reason for Forbes to complain unless he wanted a more compact district. Since I reduced the Black population from 33% to 20%, Forbes should be safe. McCain probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 20% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.
5th District Tom Perrillio (D) Yellow
First, I am sorry about this extremely convoluted gerrymander that should not be on this map. I do not see Republicans objecting to it because it helps shore up possibly endangered incumbents such as Whitman, Forbes and Cantor. The district's new changes include a finger into the old 1st district to take some Democratic areas. The district then goes toward Richmond. The last major change was extending the district up to Rappahannock County which is 83% White but Democratic Senator Jim Webb still carried it in 2006. What is amazing is that Black percentage remains stagnant. The areas the district picks up such as Harrisonburg in the Shenandoah Valley are filled with white Democrats. Perrillio should face a major challenge in 2010 but if he survives, this plan will protect him. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black and 69% White. Status is Likely Democrat.
6th District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal
This district stays mostly the same in area. Goodlatte keeps the Shenandoah Valley and loses Democratic areas in it such as Harrisonburg and part of Roanoke. Just to shake him up, I took his home out but since this district contains most of his old territory, he would probably pick it. I gave him some Republican counties in the current 9th district. The biggest change I made was moving this district closer to D.C. I gave him most of Fauquier County which used to be in the 1st district. I even gave him a slice of Prince William County. D.C politicians might complain but Goodlatte will not. The area I gave him is pretty Republican. The only problem I see for him is that Deeds might take a run at this district if he loses the gubernatorial election. The 6th district contains most of his old State Senate district. He could run it close but would probably lose by about ten points because I do not see Republicans in the northern part of the district backing Deeds. I will give Deeds a better chance if he performs extremely well in rural areas during the gubernatorial election. In other cases, Goodlatte should be safe. McCain probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 89% White, the whitest district in Virginia. Status is Likely Republican if Deeds runs, Safe Republican if Deeds does not.
7th district Eric Cantor (R) Gray
Unlike Goodlatte, Cantor keeps his home in his district but the rest of his territory is switched. I split his old territory with the 1st and 5th districts. Most of his new territory was Republican parts of the 4th and the 5th. The reason I took Republican areas away from the 4th was for population purposes. I know this is gerrymandered but as long as he has a safe district, Republicans and Cantor should not complain. McCain probably won 55% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Republican.
8th District Jim Moran (D) Purple (in the north)
I kept most of Arlington and all of Alexandria in the district. The main changes I made were taking out the thin corridor that heads to Reston in northwestern Fairfax County. I sent Moran's district to western Fairfax County to take in some territory that is mixed. Obama probably pulled even in the western part but Arlington and Alexandria should save Moran from any trouble. The close in suburbs should help make this district heavily Democratic. Obama probably won 65% of the vote here. Demographics are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
9th District Rick Boucher (D) Light Blue
This district mostly remained unchanged after most redistricting. I decided to change that. I put some heavily Republican counties into the 6th district. The only spot of worry is that I slipped in Roanoke which votes Democratic but Goodlatte lives there. Again, I am assuming Goodlatte would not want to risk a run against Boucher when Goodlatte could easily win the 6th. The Republicans may field someone else but that candidate would have a poor chance of beating Boucher. McCain probably won 56% of the vote here, down from 59% in the old district. Demographics are 8% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
10th District Frank Wolf (R) Pink
His district is 69% White so it appears unchanged at a first glance from its current form. Wolf's problem is that many of those white voters are Liberals. His old district contained many white voters from the Conservative Shenandoah Valley. I will admit I did not give him much new territory. I did, however take out all of the Shenandoah Valley. The only Conservative areas are Clarke County and part of Fauquier County. I kept most of his old territory in the district with all of Loudon County and northern Fairfax County. He is probably entrenched there. Still, he should lose because I added Vienna, Reston, Falls Church and about half of Arlington. Those areas combined probably gave Obama a combined 40,000 vote margin. Also knowing that Wolf's old territory he keeps voted for Obama, Wolf is in trouble. Brian Moran, Jim Moran's brother might run here as a comeback after his failed Gubernatorial primary run earlier this year. With his brother's support, Brian Moran would crush Wolf in Fairfax County and that should offset anything from Loudon County. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Demographics are 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 69% White. Status is Likely/Lean Democrat, depending on the challengers.
11th District Gerry Connelly (D) Light Green
This district shrank in size like the 10th due to large population gains. I sent this district to the Alexandria border and kept it out of the Republican western Prince William County. I also added Manassas and the surrounding area which Obama won. I cut out central Fairfax County due to population constraints. Another change was adding Democratic parts of Stafford County which Obama may turn blue in 2012. Overall, this district now easily protects Connelly. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 52% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
Here is my first attempt at redistricting California for 2010. I gave myself an extra challenge of keeping the representatives' residences in their respective districts save of course McClintock, and assuming Garamendi wins CA-10.
For the demographics, I noticed that even in obviously heavy Hispanic areas, the "Hispanic" percentage was ridiculously low, while the "Other" category was more representative of the Hispanic population, so for "Hispanic" I will use the "Hispanic" and "other" numbers.
Later on I will attempt redistricting the State Senate and Assembly. I know there is a panel that will draw the state legislative districts, but I still intend to give a shot at these maps.
Using Dave's Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Oregon. The state will either keep the current five seats or may gain one seat in 2012. This plan is drawn for six seats. I have seen several other proposals for a six-seat Oregon plan; however, those plans were either quite gerrymandered and/or were drawn to elect four Democrats and two Republicans.
In this plan, the districts are very compact and the plan is designed to elect five Democrats and one Republican. County lines are used as the demarcation for districts to the fullest extent possible.
This is my first redistricting diary. I've used Dave's redistricting before for other states; I've just never cared to post it. I chose to do Massachusetts, which is poised to lose one seat in 2010. Barring a Republican win at the state house (which is increasingly unlikely with the candidacy of Tim Cahill), Democrats should be able to push through a liberal gerrymander. Here were my goals:
1. Take out Stephen Lynch: Lynch is the very definition of a DINO. He represents a D+11 district, but votes like a Blue Dog. I don't know a single progressive in Massachusetts that doesn't have sweet dreams about primarying him.
2. Make sure that all representatives continue to live in the district they represent: This, I knew, would be hard, considering that 4 representatives live in Middlesex county alone, but it remained important to maintain the Democratic machine
3. Make the state look less gerrymandered: This, for reasons described above would also be hard, but I hoped that I could, at the very least, make my map look better than this:
4. Give Boston a compact district: Just personal, for me. I want the best city in the country to basically have a district all to itself
[Update 10/13 3:41 PDT: the Hispanic data for California, Kentucky and Wisconsin was incorrect. I've now uploaded the correct data. Thanks to CalifornianInTexas and nico for noticing.]
My time coming, any day, don't worry about me, no
...
California, preaching on the burning shore
California, I'll be knocking on the golden door
Like an angel, standing in a shaft of light
Rising up to paradise, I know, I'm gonna shine
Hey everyone, there haven't been as many redistricting diaries lately, so I thought I'd make one for Virginia, since it's a state that's very close to home for me and has seen some big changes recently.
The first thing I did was I assigned all of the precincts in the state 4 colors (Blue for Obama over 56%, Green for Obama under 36%, Purple for McCain under 56%, and Red for McCain over 56%. I figure this would give a good visual representation of VA's electorate and make things easier for me or anyone else.
This allowed me to do some stats on the entirety of all strong-Obama, weak-Obama, Strong McCain, and weak-McCain precincts in the entire state. Here's what I came up with:
39.95% of all Virginians (or 3,104,205 people) live in precincts that went strongly for Obama.
13.73% of all Virginians (or 1,066,544 people) live in precincts that went weakly for Obama.
12.26% of all Virginians (or 952,461 people) live in precincts that went weakly for McCain.
34.06% of all Virginians (or 2,645,879 people) live in precincts that went strongly for McCain.
Aggregating votes using winner-take-all precincts gives Obama a win of 53.68%.
For strong Obama precincts, the racial stats were: 48% white, 31% black, 7% Asian, and 10% hispanic.
For weak Obama precincts, the racial stats were: 68% white, 15% black, 7% Asian, and 7% hispanic.
For weak McCain precincts, the racial stats were: 75% white, 14% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic.
For strong McCain precincts, the racial stats were: 85% white, 8% black, 1% Asian, 2% hispanic.
Now, since congressional districts are assigned based on precincts, I decided that the strong precincts represent the base number that a party should have. Thus, the Democrats should have 39% of the Congressional seats, and the Republicans 34%. The weak precincts in between represent the areas where manipulation through gerrymandering are most effective. Thus, if the Democrats controlled redistricting, a "safe" map for them to draw would consist of 7 Democratic seats and 4 Republican seats ((1-.3406)(11 districts))=7.25. The same goes for the Republicans, who are more likely to control redistricting ((1-.3995)(11 districts))=6.60. One could gerrymander beyond this, but not without introducing some serious partisan territory into their districts that could make them vulnerable down the road (as what happened to Republicans when they tried to pack all the Dems into 2 districts).
Therefore, I decided to draw a "safe" map that the Republicans would be smart to draw if safety is their greatest concern. I chose the Republicans because I'm not sure if the Dems will have a hand in this in VA come 2012. The outcome gives Republicans an additional 2 seats and would ensure that NO seats would change hands after the 2012 elections.
Here's what I got:
District 1 - Blue - Rob Wittman (R)
Changes very little. Needs to expand more into NoVA due to population growth, but less than 10% of the district lives there. The NOVA part voted for Obama, but the rest of the district is fairly conservative. In fact, just to make sure, I traded some majority-black precincts and counties out for some of ultra-conservative Hanover County and other deep-red areas around Richmond. McCain probably got about 55% here. (71% white, 17% black, 2% asian, 6% hispanic)
District 2 - Green - Glenn Nye (D)
Changes greatly. Goes from being Virginia Beach and Eastern Shore based to being a liberal Hampton Roads district. I know some of you think that this district is unnecessary, but without it the Republicans would need to do some serious cracking, because there are still many majority-black precincts left over after packing VA-03 so much that it becomes 64% black (this is why Obama won Forbes' district and almost won Nye's). Obama probably got 65-75% here, as the district ONLY consists of strong Obama precincts. Nye would probably be challenged from the left by a black democrat in this district (39% white, 49% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic)
District 3 - Purple - Robert Scott (D)
Expands out into the countryside, into areas that helped Obama win Forbes' district. I could've made it more black, but I wanted to keep the lines clean so that the courts couldn't say anything. Still crosses the river, but not as obnoxiously as before. Obama probably got 65-75% here. (41% white, 50% black, 1% Asian, 5% hispanic)
District 4 - Red - Randy Forbes (R)
District becomes completely bleached and safe for anyone who succeeds Forbes in any political environment. Added the lean-Dem Eastern shore in so that the district isn't too packed. McCain probably got 60% here. (72% white, 17% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic)
District 5 - yellow - No incumbent
Getting rid of Periello's district was easy. I decided to break open Goodlatte's and Boucher's districts because they are overpacked with Republicans. This district takes in liberal areas in Roanoke, VA Tech, and Harrisonburg just to make VA-06 more conservative, but the district is still safe for any Republican who runs. McCain probably got 60% here. (82% white, 11% black, 1% Asian, 2% hispanic)
District 6 - teal - Bob Goodlatte (R) vs. Rick Boucher (D)
I know they worked out some kind of deal back in 2002, but if Republicans really want this seat, they really have no reason to care what Goodlatte thinks. This is mostly Goodlatte's territory, but it takes in Boucher's home. Goodlatte should win easily since nearly every precinct is strong-McCain. McCain probably got above 65% here. Republicans can unpack this after 2022 if they want. (91% white, 4% black, 1% hispanic)
District 7 - gray - Eric Cantor (R) vs. Tom Periello (D)
This district is anchored by the strongly-Republican Richmond suburbs. I took out some majority-black areas in Richmond, but I added some liberal areas in Charlottesville and majority-black areas from VA-01 to compensate. McCain's performance is probably unchanged at 53%, but Cantor should be fine. I did not want to expand this district into NoVA, but I had to since I wanted to keep Wolf's district partially in the Shenandoah Valley. Part of it was already in the DC media markey anyway. (77% white, 12% black, 4% Asian, 4% hispanic).
District 8 - purplish blue - Jim Moran (D)
Unpacked some to expand into heavily Obama areas in NoVa. Almost every precinct in this district was strong-Obama (he probably got 65% here). (59% white, 7% black, 14% Asian, 16% hispanic.
District 9 - light blue - No incumbent
Made this district too conservative for Boucher to win if he moved into it (he'd have to air ads in the Richmond suburbs where fire-breathing Republicans would hate him anyway). Really doesn't include any liberal areas except maybe Danville. McCain probably got 60% here. (75% white, 19% black, 1% Asian, 3% hispanic)
District 10 - pink - Frank Wolf (R)
Wanted to keep one Republican district in NoVa. Basically trades Dem areas for Rep areas, while trying not to take in any strong-Obama precincts. Obama got 55% in Wolf's current district, but I'd wager that drawn this way, the district would've went for McCain by about 52-53%. This is the only district that might change hands if the Dems haven't peaked in NoVA, but given some recent elections there, I think they have. (76% white,
76% white, 6% black, 8% Asian, 7% hispanic).
District 11 - light green - Gerry Connolly (D)
Loses Republican areas, gains Democratic areas. It was hard for me to believe, but some of the Prince William County precincts went over 75% for Obama, and this was a district that was drawn for a Republican; well, there's no way this one is going back to them anytime soon; thus, this is their second concession. (49% white, 17% black, 12% Asian, 18% hispanic), and yes, Virginia gets 3 minority-majority districts under this plan.
Whew, well, let me know what you all think of all this.
Using Dave's Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Louisiana. It appears that the state will be losing one seat in 2012, so the plan here has six seats. There is currently only one Democrat in the entire delegation, and this plan aims to make that two or three Democrats, including two African-Americans. I tried to make the map so districts are relatively compact, no parish is split among more than two districts, and altogether only 13 out of Louisiana's 64 parishes are split at all.
I am worried about the Colorado Governorship but the Democrats should still control one part of the State Legislature. They have large majorities in both houses. This calls for an incumbent protection plan even though I already expect one because the Democrats want to protect Betsy Markey and John Salazar. Salazar seems pretty safe but I decided to protect him anyway because eventually, the Republicans will find a strong challenger. The two other Republicans should have no problems under this plan. Here are the maps:
District 1 Diana De Gette (D) Blue
This district resembles Betsy Markey's current district a bit because I extended it out into the heavily Republican prairie. Even though these counties are heavily Republican, they have barely any people. Since Denver is so Democratic, Republicans have no chance at this district. To satisfy minority politicians, this district is also minority majority. Obama probably won 69% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black, 38% Hispanic and 48% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 2 Jared Polis (D) Green
Okay, I did not make everyone stronger. I sent Polis's district out to the Utah border to include Mesa County (Grand Junction) which McCain won by 20,000 votes. Polis should not worry because Boulder County (Boulder) went for Obama by 80,000 votes. Excluding the slice of Jefferson and Adams Counties, the vote results for the new 2nd district were Obama 174,567 and McCain 116,890. I estimate Obama won about 56% of the vote in the Jefferson and Adams County portions so Obama probably won 59% of the vote in the district. Polis is a Boulder Liberal and the district should be Democratic enough to protect him. Demographics are 13% Hispanic and 81% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 3 John Salazar (D) Purple
I removed Grand Junction and nearby Republican counties in return for more ski resort counties in the Rocky Mountains like Eagle County. The Jefferson County part I added should not interrupt the district because it only has about 14% of the district's population. Overall, Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Salazar won here easily but now, I am sure he will win reelection here until he retires. Demographics are 22% Hispanic and 72% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 4 Betsy Markey (D) Red
Obama barely lost the old district because it had most of the heavily Republican counties to the east. I took those out and exchanged them with some Democratic territory in Adams County. The 4th district still has Republican Weld County but its votes should be offset by Adams County. Obama probably won 53-54% of the vote here, enough to protect Freshman Betsy Markey. Demographics are 19% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
District 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow
This district was already heavily Republican, even though Obama did much better here than Kerry. Those eastern counties needed to get into a district so I chose this one. Since it retains its base at Colorado Springs, Lamborn should be here indefinitely. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 14% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.
District 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal
Coffman gets a boost too under the new map. He loses small portions of Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties which lean Democratic. Since Douglas County is the fastest growing county in Colorado, the 6th district does not need much new territory to balance population. I also added heavily Republican Teller County. Overall, the district becomes more Republican. In the later part of the 2010's, the district might become shaky as more Democrats move into the suburbs. For now, Coffman is safe unless he faces an extremely hard challenge. McCain probably won 55% of the vote. Status is Safe/Likely Republican.
District 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Gray
I kept the district mostly the way it was. The changes I made were taking out Republican parts of Adams County, a bit of Jefferson and I added a touch of Denver. These changes should make the district even more Democratic, ensuring Perlmutter's safety. I decided it was too risky to try to swap some territory with the 6th district to weaken Coffman. It would not be worth it because there will be Republican years. The Democratic incumbents need to be as safe as possible. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 23% Hispanic and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
• AZ-Sen (pdf): John McCain is probably safe for re-election in 2010. PPP released the second half of their Arizona sample, and find McCain beating two strong opponents who seem to have no intention of running anyway: Sec. of Homeland Security and ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano (53-40) and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (57-30). He also leads Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, who is at least a rumored candidate, 55-25. McCain only has 48/42 approvals, but with kind of a bipartisan spin: an unusually low 65% of Republicans approve, while an unusually high 32% of Democrats approve.
• IL-Sen: Facing some unrest on the right flank, the RNC's Michael Steele has withdrawn sole support from Rep. Mark Kirk in the Illinois Senate GOP primary, according to the Chicago Observer. He's back to a neutral position, which certainly counts as a victory for Patrick Hughes, who's been gaining some momentum at coalescing the party's right-wing. Considering how Kirk acted when Andy McKenna was going to run, is another temper tantrum in the offing? On the Dem side, Alexi Giannoulias got the endorsement of the SEIU, which led his new rival, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, to "go there," invoking the specter of Rod Blagojevich, who was elected via SEIU support.
• NH-Sen: This isn't going at all according to plan for Kelly Ayotte (or the NRSC). Yet another random rich GOPer is showing up to scope out the Senate race, the third in a week. Today it's Jim Bender, an investor who used to be the CEO of Logicraft in the 1990s.
• OH-Sen: Everyone forgets about wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the GOP primary in Ohio against establishment pick Rob Portman, probably because he doesn't have a built-in constituency. Looks like he's trying to hook up with the teabaggers as a result, positioning himself as a populist alternative to the free-trading Portman. Ganley is also getting some help from a Republican insider: an endorsement from Bay Buchanan (sister of Pat), pleased by Ganley's anti-immigrant rhetoric.
• WV-Sen: Looks like Robert Byrd's stay in the hospital was a lot shorter than his stint this spring; he was released today.
• GA-Gov: Strategic Vision looks at the primary fields in the Georgia governor's race, and finds not much has changed since last time. For the Dems, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes is at 45%, with Thurbert Baker at 30, David Poythress at 5, and Dubose Porter at 2. (It was 45-29 last month.) For the GOP, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 38, with Karen Handel at 15, Nathan Deal at 10, and four other guys in single digits. (Oxendine was at 39 last month, although Deal was in 2nd last month at 13, so maybe he took a minor hit from that corruption probe.) No head-to-heads yet, unfortunately.
• MI-Gov: Here's another poll of a potentially exciting gubernatorial race, but primaries only. An Inside Michigan Politics finds a tight GOP primary, with AG Mike Cox in the lead at 27, followed by Rep. Pete Hoekstra at 23 and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15 (with businessman Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George each at 2). Lt. Gov. John Cherry is at 40 in the Dem primary with only light opposition from state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (9) and former state Rep. John Freeman (8). A March poll from the same pollster had Cox at 17 and Hoekstra at 15 (but both losing to Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, who isn't running).
• NJ-Gov: Two very different pictures from partisan pollsters of the New Jersey governor's race out there. First comes one from Democracy Corps, who have the race as close as anyone has had it since early spring: Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett 40-39-11, and Christie has net negative favorables for the first time, at 32/34. (Their poll two weeks ago had Christie up 41-38-10.) The other is Strategic Vision, who see Christie up 46-38-8. Still an improvement from their last poll in July: 53-38-5... like most pollsters, they see Corzine essentially unable to move up, but succeeding in dragging Christie's numbers down. One more bucket of mud for Corzine to throw at Christie arrived yesterday: news that Christie owned stock in Cendant Corp. at the same time as he was investigating them through the US Attorney's office.
• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Marist has a poll out that finds New Yorkers thinking that Barack Obama should butt out of New York governor's race, by a 62-27 margin. Nevertheless, only 25% think David Paterson should run next year (63% say no); they just want him to arrive at that decision on his own. While the poll doesn't contain gubernatorial matchups (not that we need any more of them), it does have some Senate numbers, confirming other local pollsters, finding the not-running Rudy Giuliani beating Kirsten Gillibrand 51-40 and the probably-not-running George Pataki beating Gillibrand 45-41.
Meanwhile, the NYT has a profile of a rather melancholy Paterson, saying "I didn't sign up for this." They also have a quote that could be seen as hopeful that he may still bail out on seeking another term: "if I got to a point where I thought that my candidacy was hurting my party, obviously it would be rather self-absorbed to go forward." (Unless he's made peace with just being self-absorbed.) If you're wondering what's taking him so long to make a decision, though, Josh Goodman has a nice pithy summary of the decisionmaking process, not just for Paterson, but all the race's players:
Paterson thinks he can beat Lazio, but not Giuliani, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Giuliani makes up his mind. Giuliani thinks he can beat Paterson, but not Cuomo, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Cuomo makes up his mind. Cuomo thinks he can beat anyone, but doesn't want the messiness of a primary battle, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Paterson makes up his mind.
• VA-Gov: It looked briefly like ex-Gov. Doug Wilder might endorse Creigh Deeds after all, but today he backed down and said he won't endorse. Wilder also leveled some criticism at Deeds for proposing tax increases to fix northern Virginia's increasingly dire transportation problems. It's a wtf? moment from the mercurial Wilder, whose endorsement would do a lot to move African-American turnout for Deeds, where he hasn't generated much excitement yet.
• MO-04: No surprise here, but state Sen. Bill Stouffer made it official that he'll be taking on 17-term Dem incumbent Ike Skelton in the dark-red 4th. Christian Right former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is already in the race; Stouffer, however, seems to be working more of a fiscal discipline angle.
• PA-07: While state Rep. Bryan Lentz seems to have the inside track on the Dem nomination (despite no formal announcement), another Democrat is getting in the race: Teresa Touey, a political consultant who has worked for Joe Sestak and Ted Kennedy. One problem for her, though: although she is a native of the 7th, she's been living in Massachusetts since the early 1990s.
• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds mayoral results in line with just about everybody else: incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Dem comptroller William Thompson 52-36, with Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher pulling in 2.
• Redistricting: Roll Call has a detailed piece on how the parties are ramping up financially for the post-2010 redistricting fights. A new 501(c)(4), euphemistically titled Making America's Promise Secure, with Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott among its founders, will be coordinating the effort (since campaign reform passed since 2002 prevents the RNC from using soft money to spearhead the effort now). The DCCC's counterpart is the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, although a 527, the equally euphemistic Foundation for the Future, looks like it'll do the financial heavy lifting.
Using Dave's Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for the Maryland legislature. The legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic (33 out of 47 Senators and 104 out of 141 Delegates), but because of population shifts since the last census, several Democratic seats may be at risk in the next round of redistricting.
