Survey USA Polling Shows Democrats in Good Shape

A recent round of Survey USA polling commissioned by Roll Call predicts Democrats will do quite well in next year's high-profile US Senate races. From poll-to-poll, the MOE varies from 3.8-4.0% with an approximate sample size of 650 respondents.

Colorado:

Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

Maine:

Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Minnesota (07/30 results in parens):

Mike Ciresi (D): 44 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (48)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Al Franken (D): 45 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

New Hampshire:

Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

New Mexico:

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

Virginia (9/17 results in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 52 (56)
George Allen (R): 42 (37)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Mark Warner (D): 57 (60)
Jim Gilmore (R): 35 (32)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Thoughts? Surprises?

63 thoughts on “Survey USA Polling Shows Democrats in Good Shape”

  1. I’m surprised they didn’t test Tom Udall in NM. I’d also be interested to see how a KY poll compares to these polls – does it look more like MN, or like ME? Ditto for LA.

  2. it’s surprising how well allen fares against warner, makes you wonder about virginia.  also, why hasn’t there been more polling in LA?  it’s the only race that republicans have a good chance of winning, yet the only polling there’s been is an old poll putting landrieu against jindal.  a rather moot point.  it’s starting to seem like maine and LA are the race.  a two term woman senator running for a third term against a (arguably in terms of Kennedy) 1st tier candidate.  each race also has an x factor, New Orleans in LA and the democratic prez candidate in maine (though the X factor in LA is far greater).  I think whatever happens in maine will happen in LA, either both lose, or both win.

  3. As a MN resident, you have no idea how that poll makes me feel.  God, I am ecstatic!  The GOP here has said they are going to take back all of these State House seats and will put up a good fight to Tim Walz.  This poll alone shows that the moderate-GOP that should be able to win in MN isnt going to.  Imagine if Coleman was one of the more hard-lined Repubs in the state, he would be blown out of the water!  Wish they would have polled Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, he’s the man.

    Our state GOP is going to be in such a state of disarray after this election, WOOOOO!!  Its too bad we still have Pawlenty, ugh….  Their lone guy that can effectively stand in our way unless we manage to pick-up those couple seats left to get the veto-proof majorities we need.  We only need a couple seats to switch.

    Marty Chavez outpolling both makes me quite happy!  Do you think this may deter Udall from running?

    And god, we have so much work to do in Maine…  Granted, Rhode Island wasnt even on the radar until like August last year, if not September.  (I may be wrong, I didnt start following Senate elections obsessively until like September)

  4. This almost plays exactly into what my rankings were. 

    My (top 7) Rankings Were:
    Virginia
    New Hampshire
    New Mexico
    Colorado
    Minnesota
    Maine
    Oregon

    A couple of things.  I put New Mexico behind New Hampshire, basically because the Republican candidates have room to grow, whereas Sununu doesn’t.  I think Udall is polling better well, but the Republican candidates can close the gap better than Sununu can against Shaheen. 

    Now with this poll, I have switched Oregon and Maine.  Clearly Smith is a weaker incumbent, but he has a weaker opponent, whereas Maine has a stronger incumbent and a stronger opponent. 

    But basically, this poll almost completely vindicated my previous rankings of the top US Senate races of 2008. 

    1. $126,324.  Do you think that is enough money to spend in a credible senate race against Snowe?  Snowe made “mince-meat” of her opponent because her opponent wasn’t lifted up at all.  Maine was a third, if not fourth tier race in 2006.  To compare that Maine in 2006 to Maine in 2008 is borderline lying.  Yes, Allen is down by around 20 points right now.  Guess what, Franken was down 20 points when he started about 8(?) months ago.  He is within one point of Coleman now.  A statistical tie. 

      “Giving up” in Maine would be betrayal of the 50 state strategy.  I’m sure you didn’t mean give up entirely, but I still have hopes for the possibility of success though.  I will not give that up in Maine until we get much closer to election day. 

      With Alaska, Kentucky, and North Carolina slowly pushing up in their competitiveness, how much money can the RNC and NRSC spend to save their incumbents??  I don’t think they’ll have enough especially in comparison to the DSCC. 

      Anyways… Where are you getting your vibes or info or whatever on Begich getting in? 

    2. Is way more popular and moderate. Plus she ran against a totally unknown activist who had helped with Dennis Kucinich’s campaign or something and that was it. Tom Allen is a strong candidate and once it gets closer to election time and we expose Collins record her numbers will go down. It’s probably one of the hardest pickups but I wouldn’t rate it third tier.

      1. I’m just saying. We do NOT want that guy associated with the Democratic Party in any way shape or manner.

      2. “Marty Chavez outpolling both makes me quite happy!  Do you think this may deter Udall from running?”

        I doubt one poll pushing Udall in could create a scenario where one poll pushes Udall out.  Udall created a scenario to where he has an “Exploratory phase” right now.  It is what Stumbo is doing in Kentucky, and Versace is doing in IL-18.  Udall is likely to get in, crush Chavez, and crush whichever GOP candidate turns into the sacraficial goat for the Republicans. 

        Chris Cilliza’s blog had him posting saying there is basically no doubt that Udall will run in New Mexico. 

        1. That’s a whole bunch of polls now that show Collins with a very solid lead. Remember, even last year, the best Dem year since 74, the so-called moderate Repub Olympia Snowe made mince-meat out of her opponent. Yes, Snowe is more popular than Collins and yes, Allen is a better Dem. But to beat an incumbent the voters have to be ready to fire that person. And they’re clearly not in Maine.

          Time to promote Alaska (assuming Begich gets in, which I hear he will) and Kentucky. And somebody needs to pony up and poll Oklahoma. I have a very strong feeling about that race (made stronger by someone I trust pitching me on the basis of “inside” polling info, which may or may not be true). Inhofe is not well liked and Rice can make a race out of it.

      1. happy that at least we have the prospects of a Dem pick-up.  Everything I’ve read I’ve hated, Udall is certainly the one I want.  But hell, at least we’d have a pick-up if Udall doesnt get in.  That’s my attitude towards Franken….

  5. MN guys doing well. I think that is the number 5 most likely switch now.

    Biggest surprise? How we’ll Novick polled.

  6. Don’t give up yet

    Look, over the next four months, if Allen hits around 42, then he could snowball and get another 8 points in 8 months.  I’m just sick of this pessimistic attitude of some people wanting to call it quits already. 

    1. There was a big expose in Willamette Week about him running in January 2007. Merkley didn’t get in until Aug 1.

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