Rep. Jim Walsh (R) has lost the endorsement of the New York Conservative Party in Monroe and Wayne counties — two of the four counties that make up his district. Activists in the party are upset over Walsh’s about-face on Iraq (he now favors a withdrawal timeline). The real wrinkle is this: in 2006, Walsh squeaked by Democrat Dan Maffei by about 3400 votes. Exactly 11,634 of Walsh’s votes came from the Conservative Party line on the ballot.
If the other county parties and the state party agree, Walsh could lose the Conservative line on the ballot next year. And if the Conservative Party is serious about it, they could nominate their own candidate who would eat into Walsh’s base. Of course, that’s a lot of “ifs”.
(H/T: The Albany Project)
for Walsh if he doesn’t get the Conservative party nomination.
Those 11,000 or so votes in that direction, in a Presidential year with the strong possibility of a popular New Yorker topping the ticket for the Democrats would make this a Lean Democratic seat.
Also, Wayne county really made the margin for Walsh. He narrowly lost the big countries of Monroe (Rochester and Irondequoit) and Onondaga (Syracuse), but won Wayne county with 60% of the vote.
Walsh’s Wayne County margin was about 4,700 votes, he won the election by about 4,000.
I don’t have any facts, but I know that when there’s a candidate who’s endorsed by both the Dems and the WFP I’ll often vote for them under the WFP line, but in elections where there’s a separate WFP candidate (or if they haven’t endorsed anyone) I’ll vote Dem instead, especially if it’s a close election. Does anyone have any idea how common this is or how we could get a rough idea?
Of a Conservative Party split here. Unlike the national wingers who threaten to support third-party candidates all the time but never follow through, the NYSCP has done so – including in the recent past. Example: State Sen. David Valesky (D) won a tight race in a tough district in 2004, where the Conservatives didn’t endorse the Republican and ran a third dude.
So, thankfully, the NYSCP is very capable of cutting of its nose to spit its face. And of course, there are few things I love more than right-wing infighting. Fingers crossed.