(I just like this diary. – promoted by DavidNYC)
The November approval numbers are out from SurveyUSA. Let’s see how the class of 2008 is faring.
How unpopular is Frank Lautenberg this month? All numbers represent net spproval (approve minus disapprove).
100. DeWine -25%
99. Talent -22%
98. Santorum -21%
97. Burns -15%
96. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) -5%
Picture a huge cliff. Now picture Santorum, Talent, Burns, and Dewine being thrown off of it by angry voters. Lautenberg is hanging on the edge of that cliff, but at least he’s a long way from those other four guys… so far. And the vibe of the ’06 election seems to be helping – he’s climbed 7 points since last month. It’s a good start, Frank, but you’re going to have to build it up from there.
95. Mel Martinez -3%
OK, I feel better now. Kudos to the brilliance of the GOP for making their least popular senator the face of their party. Wow.
94. Bunning -3%
93. Kyl -2%
OK, you can get re-elected at -2%. There hope for you, Frank.
92. John Kerry (D-MA) -2%
Presidential bid’s not looking good, John. At this rate, you might not even win the presidential primary in your own state. The infamous gaffe, repeated ad naseum by the media just like the Dean Scream, drops Kerry a whopping 16%. Ouch. No matter what happens, his seat will stay in Democratic hands, though. It’s Massachusetts.
91. Dayton -1%
90. Menendez 0%
Some more hope for Frank – a little proof that New Jerseys are willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat they don’t much like. While Dewine and Talent nosedived 8% and 17% respectively this month, Menendez soars 13% and gets re-elected.
89. Wayne Allard (R-CO) 1%
Allard gains 5% this month despite the national trends.
88. Burr 2%
87. Sarbanes 2%
86. John Sununu (R-NH) 3%
Sununu dives 8% from last month. The mood in NH has gotten quite frosty to the GOP.
85. Frist 3%
84. John Cornyn (R-TX) 3%
Cornyn gains 6% this month. Still makes a good target.
83. Allen 4%
82. Voinovich 4%
81. Norm Coleman (R-MN) 5%
Coleman stays the same as he was last month, which is 3% better than recently re-elected governor Pawlenty. But remember, there’s nobody out campaigning against him yet, so this is still a good position for us to start from.
80. James Inhofe (R-OK) 5%
79. Chafee 6%
Inhofe gains 14% this month, but he’s not out of the woods yet as Chafee’s ranking shows. Chafee gains 5% himself, possibly for his post-election declaration that he wasn’t sure if he was a Republican anymore.
To be updated tomorrow. Wow, I got front-paged! I better finish this now…
78. Bond 8%
77. Reid 9%
76. Lieberman 9%
75. Gregg 11%
74. Specter 11%
73. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) 12%
72. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 12%
Lieberman gains 4% and is re-elected, so we probably want to see our targets move below 9% net approval. Landrieu is our lowest-rated red-stater, so it’s good to see her above the Chafee line; with all the positive Dem mojo, however, her gain of merely 2% this month is underwhelming. A rough campaign could easily bring her down into the danger zone, so Schumer will need to invest here. Dole is our next target, and you can see we’ll need a good challenger (or some Macaca-like gaffes, or retirement) to bring her down in reddish NC. Momentum is on our side at the moment – she falls 8% from last month, and is down from a high of +30% in July.
71. Coburn 12%
70. Murkowski 13%
69. Tom Harkin (D-IA) 13%
68. Richard Durbin (D-IL) 15%
A presidential election year in Iowa – expect Harkin to get a strong challenger who declares early, because every GOP wannabe-prez will be helping him raise money. Harkin gains 6% this month – that’s a good thing. Durbin’s pretty safe in blue Illinois but gains only 1% this month as Dems fail to pick off Mark Kirk or Hyde’s open seat in the House.
67. DeMint 15%
66. Pat Roberts (R-KS) 15%
65. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 15%
Roberts and McConnell are basically in pre-Macaca George Allen territory. In order to pick them off, we’d need two out of three factors: A strong candidate (Sebelius, Chandler), a memorable gaffe or scandal, and/or retirement. Before we get too optimistic, remember that the Tennesee race had all these three factors (Frist retires and is clouded by scandal, Corker had the 911 call fiasco and his abortion flip-flop, and Ford, a sitting congressman, ran a very strong campaign) and we still lost. Roberts gains 10% this month (ouch) and McConnell gains 3.
64. Isakson 15%
63. Brownback 16%
62. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 16%
61. Gordon Smith (R-OR) 17%
60. Russ Feingold 17%
59. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 17%
Beating Chambliss would feel pretty damn good, and his numbers aren’t unreachable. On the downside, he gained 9% this month – we need momentum going the other direction. Smith gains 5%, another trend we need to reverse – Oregon ain’t as blue as Rhode Island. Alexander gains 13%, probably on the vibes of the GOP noise machine that pushed a turd like Corker into Frist’s open seat. When you consider how much lower Frist’s numbers are, this does not look like a first or even second tier opportunity.
58. Akaka 17%
57. Murray 18%
56. Lincoln 18%
55. Carl Levin (D-MI) 18%
54. Mark Pryor (D-AR) 19%
Stabenow’s re-election brings positive vibes in Michigan, as Levin gains 12%. This seat’s safe unless he retires. Too bad Beebe doesn’t seem to have done the same for Pryor, who actually drops 6% this month. He’s still in pretty safe territory for Arkansas, however, which is looking reddish in presidential elections but bluish for everything else.
53. Boxer 20%
52. Bill Nelson 20%
51. Stabenow 20%
50. Dodd 20%
49. Salazar 21%
48. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 22%
Graham gains 12% this month. Unless the Club For Growth or some ultrareligious 3rd party candidate intervenes in the primary, this seat stays red.
OK, I’ll finish the rest when I get home tonight. Thanks for front-paging me, David!Stupid internet connection problems. Here goes.
47. Ensign 22%
46. Mikulski 23%
45. Hutchinson 24%
44. Feinstein 25%
43. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) 25%
42. Thune 25%
41. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 25%
Hagel drops 4%, but it doesn’t matter. He’s sharp, polished, willing to be a maverick, politically savvy, and besides which, he owns the voting machines. And it’s Nebraska. All we can do is hope he runs for president and vacates his seat. Sessions gains 7% this month. If you decide to run, Artur, good luck – you’ll need it.
40. Bennett 25%
39. Wyden 26%
38. Schumer 27%
37. McCain 27%
08′ hopeful McCain loses 2%, victorious DSCC chair Schumer gains 11%. Nice.
36. Cantwell 28%
35. Ted Stevens (R-AK) 28%
34. Larry Craig (R-ID) 29%
Incidentally, Cantwell jumped 23% in the past month. Now that’s a damn fine endgame. Stevens drops 3%, but his approval ratings aren’t like a truck you can dump on – it’s a series of tubes! No, it’s a series of numbers that never dip below 26%. Just retire, you old bastard! Stop teasing and do it – spend some time with your family before you hop on the metaphorical Bridge to Nowhere. Craig drops 6%, but seriously… Idaho. If we can’t defeat a guy like Bill Sali… Craig’d have to dropkick Santa Claus to lose this race.
33. Shelby – 29%
32. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) – 29%
31. Joe Biden (D-DE) – 29%
Not even Shelley Moore Capito could beat Rockefeller without a good scandal, even though he drops 6% this month. No one will mount a credible campaign against Joe Biden – in Delaware, the only thing safer than a popular incumbent is a popular incumbent Democrat. He gains 10% this month on his son’s coattails, or maybe vice versa. Of course, there’s that whole presidential run to think about…
30. Hatch 30%
29. Kennedy 31%
28. Bayh 31%
27. John Warner (R-VA) 32%
OK, seriously, when’s the last time a very popular senator was beaten by a very popular governor? Why is everyone so excited about the prospect of Mark Warner running here? George Allen lost because he’s a dickhead, always has been, always will be. John Warner’s not going to make those kind of mistakes. He gains 1% this month, but seriously, whatever. Maybe he’ll retire, but I heard he won’t.
26. Crapo 32%
25. Jeffords 34%
24. Thad Cochran (R-MS) 36%
Cochran gains 3%, and hasn’t said anything about retiring yet. No sense in thinking about this now when Barbour will be up for re-election in ’07.
All right, I need to get to bed. I’ll finish tomorrow – dumb internet problems prevented me from finishing tonight. Let’s do this.
23. Vitter 38%
22. Grassley 38%
21. Kohl 39%
20. Mike Enzi (R-WY) 39%
19. Jack Reed (D-RI) 39%
Nothing to see here. Move along. Kohl shows us what happens to Senators with approval this high – they get re-elected without any trouble. Enzi gains 12%, Reed gains 1% (and pretty much never dips below 35%).
18. Lott 39%
17. Byrd 40%
16. Lugar 41%
15. Inouye 42%
14. Ben Nelson 42%
13. Carper 43%
12. Thomas 43%
11. Pete Domenici (R-NM) 43%
10. Tim Johnson (D-SD) 44%
Domenici gains 12% – if he runs, he wins, and he says he’s gonna run. Maybe he wants to be Senate President Pro Tem someday, if Stevens retires and the Democrats lose the Senate. Johnson gains 2% – why would anyone want to even try to seriously challenge this guy? I expect top tier challengers to stay away for now. Johnson’s numbers are stellar and stable.
9. Bingaman 44%
8. Leahy 46%
7. Obama 48%
6. Max Baucus (D-MT) – 49%
Believe it or not, Baucus might not be as safe as these numbers suggest. He gains a whopping 18% on the strength of Montana’s blue wave. Before that though, his numbers were more “great” than “incredible”. If support for Tester, Schweitzer, and the Democrats remains high, Baucus is safe. If our party takes a fall in Montana, however, Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot might – *might* – make a race of this.
5. Clinton 50%
4. Susan Collins (R-ME) 50%
3. Conrad 54%
2. Dorgan 56%
1. Snowe 62%
Hilary gains 14% – NY luuurrrrvvves her now. That’s a lot of electoral votes in her pocket. Maybe we shouldn’t be working so hard to dis her, seeing as how in less than 2 years we’ll probably be trying to get her elected in the general. I’m not saying we should all support her right now or anything, just that we should stop acting like she’s the boogeyman that the right wants her to be.
So, Susan Collins… Look. Lincoln Chafee’s BEST number this season was 19% net approval. Susan Collins’ WORST number was 41% net approval. Tom Allen has a better chance of being struck by lightning than unseating Collins head-to-head. Here’s hoping she honors her term limit pledge or switches parties. She gains 2% this month.
OK, done at last. But expect a version with color-coded maps soon.
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That Lautenberg should retire so that a) we don’t have to worry about a guy with such high unfavorables running for re-election and b) we can give some of NJ’s up-and-comers a shot at this seat. Personally, I like Rush Holt for this seat a lot.
Also, unless Chet Edwards runs, I’m not very excited about a challenge to Cornyn (hate him though I do). Even in an excellent Dem year with a deeply unpopular governor at the top of the ticket, BAR only got 36% against KBH. And Ron Kirk – who was a highly-touted prospect when this was an open seat back in 2002 – also disappointed (though not surprisingly).
He’ll be fine. New Jersey voters hate most of their politicians, but they break Democrat when its all on the line.
I didn’t buy the spin that the negative media frenzy caused no damage, esp. in a few heavy Military States/Districts. It was all just poorly handled. Screw the MSM.
Thanks for the summary of targets.
I agree with David and Predictor. A Lautenberg retirement would give Pallone or Holt a shot at the seat, which would help down-ticket Dems. And, of course, we can always hope for Dick Codey to step into the race . . . I know, he didn’t want to do it this time around . . . but maybe he could be persuaded . . . since he is the most popular politician in the state . . .
Democrats- Blue State (negative to positive)
95 Lautenberg-NJ is favored to win re-election. NJ is a blue state plus Menendez who had ties of possible corruption defeated the strongest Republican opponent.
92 Kerry-MA- is favored to win re-election due to the blueness of MA and weak GOP bench
68 Durbin-IL- is favored to win re-election Illinios is a blue state- GOP bench is weak
55 Levin-MI- Safe if Levin runs again- Competitve if He retires- Assuming Levin Retires- the likely Democratic Replacement Jennifer Granholm who was just re-elected Governor has a 52% approval rating. Granhom will probally hold on to the seat.
31 Biden-DE- Safe- Blue State- GOP bench is weak
19 Reed-RI Safe- Blue State- GOP bench is a joke
Democrats- Red State (Positive to negative)
6 Baucus-MT Safe- MT is blue at the state level- Schweitzer and Tester- Baucus is a top Dem on the Finance Commitee and is a Centrist Moderate
10 Johnson-SD- Safe- Centrist Moderate Democrat- It is doubtful Governor Rounds will run.
32 Rockefeller-WV- Safe- Top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee- has money
54 Pryor-AR- Safe- AR is blue state at the state level- Pryor is a household name in Arkansas
69 Harkin-IA- Competive but favored to win re-election- Seniorty
73 Landrieu-LA- Vulnerable due to narrow victories in 96 and 02 and loss of her political base in NOLA
Like 06 Every Democratic Senator up for re-election including Landrieu,Lautenberg,Kerry,and Harkin are favored to win re-election
Republicans Red State- (Negative to Positive)
89)Allard-CO- Extremely Vulnerable- approval rating is below 45%. CO is trending Blue and Allard has a top tier Democratic Challenger.
84)Cornyn-TX- Safe- Texas is a red state- A Democrat like Henry Cuellar can make the state competitive
80)Inhofe-OK- Could be Vulnerable- Safe due to the Conservative nature of Oklahoma but Vulnerable due to Burns/Bunning mentality.
72)Dole-NC- Vulnerable to a top tier Challenger- Gov Mike Easley. DSCC recruitment is key in NC.
66)Roberts-KS- Safe Kansas is Red State- Competive if Seat opens
65)McConnell-KY- Safe McConnell is powerful GOP in the Senate- Democrats will wait until 2010 to defeat Bunning
62)Chambliss-GA- Democrats will love to target Chambliss but he is safe.
59)Alexander-TN- Safe- A strong Democrat could not win Frist open seat- It is unlikely they are able to unseat Alexander.
48)Graham-SC Safe SC is a red state- Grahams only vulnerable to a GOP primary Challenge
43)Hagel-NE- Safe NE is a red state- Democratic bench is weak
41)Sessions-AL- Safe-AL is a red state- Artur Davis is preparing himself for a Statewide run in 2010 perhaps Governor
34)Craig-ID- Safe ID is a red state- Democratic bench is weak
27)Warner-VA- Safe- becomes vulnerable once Warner retires and the other Warner enters.
24)Cochran-MS- Safe- MS is a red state- competive if Cochran retires
20)Enzi-WY- Safe- WY is a red state- Democratic bench is weak
11)Domenici-NM- Safe- becomes vulnerable once Domenici retires
Allard-CO is the only Red State Senator who is likely to lose. Cornyn-TX and Inhofe-OK are vulnerable to a Macaca or Bunning/Burns controversies. Dole if Democrats recruit Mike Easley.
Republicans Blue State- Positive to Negative
4)Collins-ME – Safe- Centrist Moderate. Allen is more likely to remain in the House
61)Smith-OR- The Lincoln Chafee of 2008- Vulnerable to a top tier Democratic Challenger- ex Governor John Kitzhaber and/or weak GOP environment.-at the national level
81)Coleman-MN- Vulnerable- Due to the Blueness of Minnesota and Coleman prevoius Senate victory was a fluke.
86)Sununu-NH- Vulnerable- NH is trending Blue- Sununu’s previous election was a fluke- Sununu is likely to have a top tier challenger
Republicans who are likely to lose is
1)Allard-CO
2)Sununu-NH
3)Coleman-MN
plus- Due to Strong DSCC candidate recruitment/National Enviroment.
4)Dole-NC
5)Smith-OR
plus- Macaca Controversies
6)Chambliss-GA
7)Inhofe-OK
8)Cornyn-TX
plus retirements
9)Warner-VA
10)Domenici-NM
11)Collins-ME
Look at 2006
Democrats were favored to Pick up
1)PA- weak GOP Incumbent strong DEM challenger
2)OH- Weakness of the OH GOP.
3)RI- Weakness of the RI GOP
4)MO- National Enviroment plus Strong DEM challenger
5)MT- Weak GOP incumbent
6)VA- Macaca controversy
AK Ted Stevens R Sr 2008
AL Jefferson Sessions R Jr 2008
CO Wayne Allard R Sr 2008
GA C. Saxby Chambliss R Sr 2008
ID Larry Craig R Sr 2008
KS Pat Roberts R Jr 2008
KY Mitch McConnell R Sr 2008
ME Susan Collins R Jr 2008
MN Norm Coleman R Jr 2008
MS Thad Cochran R Sr 2008
NC Elizabeth Dole R Sr 2008
NE Charles Hagel R Sr 2008
NH John Sununu R Jr 2008
NM Pete Domenici R Sr 2008
OK James Inhofe R Sr 2008
OR Gordon Harold Smith R Jr 2008
SC Lindsey Graham R Sr 2008
TN Lamar Alexander R Jr 2008
TX John Cornyn R Jr 2008
VA John Warner R Sr 2008
WY Michael Enzi R Jr 2008
AR Mark Pryor D Jr 2008
DE Joseph Biden Jr. D Sr 2008
IA Tom Harkin D Jr 2008
IL Richard J. Durbin D Sr 2008
LA Mary Landrieu D Sr 2008
MA John Kerry D Jr 2008
MI Carl Levin D Sr 2008
MT Max Baucus D Sr 2008
NJ Frank Lautenberg D Jr 2008
RI John F. Reed D Sr 2008
SD Tim Johnson D Sr 2008
WV John Rockefeller, IV D Jr 2008
1)Sessions(R-AL)
52% approval 36% disapproval= Red- Republican Favored
2)Stevens(R-AK)
58% approval 38% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
3)Pryor(D-AR)
49% approval 45% disapproval- Purple- Democratic Favored
4)Allard(R-CO)
34% approval 50% disapproval- Purple- No Clear Favorite
5)Biden(D-DE)
61% approval 37% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
6)Chambliss-(R-GA)
52% approval 35% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
7)Craig-(R-ID)
52% approval 40% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
8)Durbin(D-IL)
55% approval 37% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
9)Harkin(D-IA)
52% approval 44% disapproval- Purple- Democratic Favored
10)Roberts(R-KS)
34% approval 50% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
11)McConnell(R-KY)
60% approval 30% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
12)Landrieu(D-LA)
54% approval 41% disapproval Red- Democratic Favored
13)Collins(R-ME)
74% approval 23% disapproval- Blue- Republican Favored
14)Kerry(D-MA)
38% approval 59% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
15)Levin(D-MI)
55% approval 35% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
16)Coleman(R-MN)
55% approval 36% disapproval- Blue- Republican Favored
17)Cochran(R-MS)
65% approval 29% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
18)Baucus(D-MT)
68% approval 26% disapproval- Red- Democratic Favored
19)Hagel(R-NE)
50% approval 37% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
20)Sununu(R-NH)
44% approval 47% disapproval- Purple- No Clear Favorite
21)Lautenberg(D-NJ)
29% approval 51% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
22)Domenici(R-NM)
56% approval 36% disapproval- Purple- Republican Favored
23)Dole(R-NC)
49% approval 40% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
24)Inhofe(R-OK)
45% approval 31% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
25)Smith(R-OR)
47% approval 45% disapproval- Blue- Republican Favored
26)Reed(D-RI)
65% approval 26% disapproval- Blue- Democratic Favored
27)Graham(R-SC)
54% approval 33% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
28)Johnson(D-SD)
65% approval 27% disapproval- Red- Democratic Favored
29)Alexander(R-TN)
54% approval 42% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
30)Cornyn(R-TX)
41% approval 40% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
31)Warner(R-VA)
63% approval 27% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
32)Rockefeller(D-WV)
56% approval 28% disapproval- Red- Democratic Favored
33)Enzi(R-WY)
51% approval 39% disapproval- Red- Republican Favored
Safe D/R
1)Sessions(R-AL)
2)Stevens(R-AK)
3)Biden(D-DE)
4)Chambliss(R-GA)
5)Craig(R-GA)
6)Durbin(D-IL)
7)Harkin(D-IA)
8)McConnell(R-KY)
9)Levin(D-MI)
10)Cochran(R-MS)
11)Hagel(R-NE)
12)Domenici(R-NM)
13)Reed(D-RI)
14)Graham(R-SC)
15)Alexander(R-TN)
16)Warner(R-VA)
17)Enzi(R-WY)
18)Collins(R-ME)
19)Baucus(D-MT)
20)Johnson(D-SD)
21)Rockefeller(D-WV)
Vulnerable(Clear Incumbent Advantage)
1)Pryor(D-AR)
2)Roberts(R-KS)
3)Kerry(D-MA)
4)Lautenberg(R-NJ)
5)Dole(R-NC)
6)Inhofe(R-OK)
7)Cornyn(R-TX)
Vulnerable(Narrow Incumbent Advantage)
1)Landrieu(D-LA)
2)Coleman(R-MN)
3)Smith(R-OR)
Vulnerable(Tossup)
1)Sununu(R-NH)
Vulnerable(Takeover)
1)Allard(R-CO)
The only vulnerable Democratic Seat is Louisiana- Landrieu is slightly favored to win re-election.
Republican bench against Democratic Incumbents ie
1)Pryor-AR
2)Kerry-MA
3)Lautenberg-NJ
are weak.
On the Republican Side
Allard-CO is most likely to fall in the Democratic Collumn
followed by
Sununu-NH and Coleman-MN
Smith-OR- depend on national environment
Dole-NC- candidate recruitment
is here: http://www.rockymoun…