Congressional races by state: VA, ND, GA

For previous diaries in this series, see here .

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

I am going by filing deadline.  These are all states with filing deadlines in April or beginning of May

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

VA has 11 congressional districts, 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats

ND has 1 district, with a Democrat

GA has 13 districts, 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

GA-02    D+2    .26         Bishop             No          Safe

GA-04    D+22   .11         Johnson            No          Safe

GA-05    D+25   .09         Lewis              No          Safe

GA-08    R+8    .46         Marshall           Yes         Vul.

GA-12    D+2    .34         Barrow             Yes         Vul.

GA-13    D+10   .20         Scott              Yes         Safe

ND-AL    R+???  .61         Pomeroy            No          Unclear

VA-03    D+18   .08         Scott              No          Safe

VA-08    D+14   .25         Moran              Yes         Safe

VA-09    R+7    .77         Boucher            Yes         Safe

As for seats held by Republicans

GA-01 R+13 .49

GA-01 is the southeastern corner of GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic

Kingston, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he’s had any opposition at all

His opponent this time is Bill Gillespie .

GA-03 R+18 .70

GA-03 is the western part of central GA, bordering AL

Westmoreland, first elected in 2004, won easily both times. He may run for Governor in 2010.

There’s no confirmed challenger, but several Democrats are considering running

GA-06 R+18 .72

GA-06 is in north central GA

Price, first elected in 2004, won unopposed in ’04 and easily in ’06

Several Democrats are considering running: Steve Sinton , who lost in 2006 has an amazing website. Also, Charles Brewer, who could probably finance his own campaign (he started Mindspring, the ISP).

GA-07 R+18 .59

GA-07 is more or less in the middle of GA

Linder, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opposition at all

GA-09 R+23 .80

GA-09 is northern GA, bordering TN and NC.

Deal, first elected in 1992, has won easily since the mid-1990s, often with no opposition

Joe Inman is apparently a confirmed challenger, but his website has been hijacked by a furniture store, and a couple others are considering running.

GA-10 R+13 .59

GA-10 is the northeastern corner of GA, bordering NC and SC and including Athens and Augusta

Broun is new, elected in a special election in 2007

One confirmed opponent is Bobby Saxon who has a nice website (YouTube, lots of links) and seems to be raising money ($44,000 in a month).  

Another is James Marlow .  This is a Republican district, but who knows? There are Republican challengers, and some of them are downright cuckoo (Whitehead, who may run again, said “Iraq is not a big deal” and called for the U. of GA to be bombed).

GA-11 R+17 .63

GA-11 is the northern part of western GA, bordering AL.

Gingrey, first elected in 2002, had a tough battle that year, but not since.

There’s no confirmed opponent, but several Democrats seem to be considering running

VA-01 R+0 .65

VA-01 is the northeast part of VA, bordering the Chesapeake Bay and MD

Wittman is new, he won a special election to replace Jo Ann Davis

No Democratic challenger

VA-02 R+9 .29

VA-02 is in northeast VA, including Virginia Beach and the portion of VA that is on the eastern side of Chesapeake Bay.

Drake, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2004 and a tougher one in 2006, winning by 5,000 votes out of 170,000.

This time her opponent is Glenn Nye, who has filed with the FEC but has no website yet.  Drake seems vulnerable, I don’t know anything about Nye.

VA-04 R+5 .44

VA-04 is the southeastern part of VA

Forbes, first elected in 2001, has won easily since then against underfunded opponents.  Apparently, it isn’t clear if he is running.

There is no sign of a Democratic challenger

VA-05 R+6 .67

VA-05 runs north-south through the middle of VA, from the NC border to Charlottesville.

Goode, first elected in 1996, is the bozo who objected to Keith Ellison taking his oath of office on the Koran.  He has won easily, even against decently funded opponents.

One confirmed challenger is Tom Perriello

VA-06 R+11 .60

VA-06 is the northwestern part of VA, bordering WV and including Roanoke

Goodlatte, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opponent at all (no Democrat has run against him since 1998)

He does have an opponent this year Sam Rasoul who has a nice website. This is a strongly Republican district, but no one should go unchallenged, certainly not for a decade!

VA-07 R+11 .64

VA-07 includes Richmond and extends northwest, almost to the WV border

Cantor, first elected in 2000, has won easily, raising huge sums.

There is no declared Democratic challenger

VA-10 R+5 .72

VA-10 is the northern part of VA, bordering MD and WV.

Wolf, first elected in 1980, has won reasonably easily despite drawing well-funded opponents.  In 2006, he beat Judy Feder 57-41, although each spent about $1.5 million

In 2008, Feder is running again, as is Mike Turner .  Wolf also has a primary opponent.

VA-11 R+1 .60

VA-11 is a u-shaped district in northeastern VA, near DC

Davis, first elected in 1994, is apparently going to retire.

One confirmed Democrat is Doug Denneny , there are other Democrats considering it, and a bunch of Republicans as well.

Summary:

GA is one of the few states with vulnerable Democrats.  Neither Marshall nor Barrow is exactly a progressive (to put it mildly) but they are better than any Republican that would replace them.  Nothing looks good on our side here.

ND depends on who (if anyone) decides to run against Pomeroy

In VA, our best pickup chance seems to be VA-11