Congressional races by state: NV, CO, WY, AK, MA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in late May and early June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NV has 3 districts, 2 Republican, 1 Democratic

CO has 7 districts, 3 Republican, 4 Democratic

WY has 1 district, held by a Republican

AK has 1 district, held by a Republican

MA has 10 seats, all Democratic

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

CO-01    D+18    .28        DeGette           No            Safe

CO-02    D+8     .62        Udall (retiring   Yes           Prob safe for

                          to run for senate) Yes              Dems

CO-03    R+6     .64       Salazar            No            Safe

CO-07    D+2     .40       Perlmutter         No            Safe

MA-01    D+15    .67       Olver              No            Safe

MA-02    D+13    .56       Neal               No            Safe

MA-03    D+13    .54       McGovern           Yes           Safe

MA-04    D+19    .58       Frank              Yes           Safe

MA-05    D+11    .56       Tsongas            No            Mostly safe

MA-06    D+11    .66       Tierney            Yes           Safe

MA-07    D+19    .48       Markey             No            Safe

MA-08    D+33    .11       Capuano            No            Safe

MA-09    D+15    .45       Lynch              No            Safe

MA-10    D+9     .59       Delahunt           No            Safe

NV-01    D+9     .21       Berkley            Yes           Safe

Those held by Republicans:

AK-AL R+14

Alaska.  1 person per square mile. It’s BIG.  If that were the population density of Manhattan, where I live, there would be 23 people here.  

Young, first elected in 1973, had his toughest race since 1994 in 2006: He was held to 57% by Diane Benson, even though Benson spent 1/10 as much.  He might retire. He’s tied to Abramoff, he’s tied to VECO, he’s gotten illegal cash. And he’s getting old.

Confirmed challengers include: Ethan Berkowitz (who was leading Young 49-42 in a poll commissioned in December by Daily Kos); Jake Metcalf ; and the 2006 candidate: Diane Benson ; and possibly Anchorage mayor Mark Begrich.

CO-04 R+9 .64

CO-04 is shaped like a backwards F, with the long side bordering NE and KS, the top bordering NE and WY.

Musgrave, first elected in 2002, has gotten declining percentages: 55% in 2002, 51% in 2004, and 46% in 2006.

This year, she is being challenged by Betsey Markey

CO-05 R+16 .49

CO-05 is pretty much the center of the state, including Colorado Springs

Lamborn, first elected in 2006, won with substantially less than his predecessor usually did.

There is no confirmed challenger

CO-06 R+10 .83

CO-06 is in the middle of the state, including Littleton and Castle Rock

Tancredo, first elected in 1998, is retiring.

The only confirmed Democrat is Mike Collins

NV-02 R+9  .51

NV-02 is nearly all of the state, except for the Las Vegas area. It is the largest district, except for single district states.

Heller, first elected in 2006, had a narrow (50-45) win then.

There are no confirmed challengers

NV-03 D+1 .38

NV-03 is a Y shaped district, composed of most of the suburbs of Las Vegas

Porter, first elected in 2002, had a close race in 2006 against Tessa Hafen (he won 48-47, and outspent her 2-1).

There are three confirmed challengers: Andrew Martin ; Barry Michaels ; and Robert Daskas.

WY-AL R+19 .64

Wyoming has fewer people than any other state

Cubin, first elected in 1994, is retiring

Several Republicans are running, and one Democrat: Gary Trauner who lost by only 1,002 votes in 2006, and who is shown with a slight lead in a poll.

Summary:

AK is a free-for-all

CO, our seats are safe, CO-04 might be competitive, and CO-06, while a Republican district, has an open seat.

MA – well, we can’t pick up any seats here!  But I don’t see us losing any either

NV-03 has some potential, it seems.

WY-AL is also possible