Wrapping up this series…. states with very late filing dates – after mid-July
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
NY has 29 congressional districts: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans
VT has 1 district, with a Democrat
HI has 2 districts, both Democrats
DE has 1 district, with a Republican
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
HI-01 D+7 .00 Abercrombie No Safe
HI-02 D+10 .01 Hirono No Safe
NY-01 D+3 .69 Bishop Yes Safe
NY-02 D+8 .68 Israel No Safe
NY-04 D+9 .52 McCarthy No Safe
NY-05 D+18 .09 Ackerman No Safe
NY-06 D+38 .03 Meeks No Safe
NY-07 D+28 .08 Crowley No Safe
NY-08 D+28 .23 Nadler No Safe
NY-09 D+14 .16 Weiner No Safe
NY-10 D+41 .04 Towns Only primary Safe for Dem
NY-11 D+40 .04 Clarke No Safe
NY-12 D+34 .05 Velazquez No Safe
NY-14 D+26 .30 Maloney No Safe
NY-15 D+43 .09 Rangel No Safe
NY-16 D+43 .07 Serrano No Safe
NY-17 D+21 .17 Engel No Safe
NY-18 D+10 .58 Lowey No Safe
NY-19 R+1 .79 Hall Yes Vul
NY-20 R+3 .83 Gillebrand Yes Slight vul
NY-21 D+9 .48 McNulty (retiring) No Vul
NY-22 D+6 .55 Hinchey Yes Safe
NY-24 R+1 .73 Arcuri No Slight vul
NY-27 D+7 .52 Higgins No Safe
NY-28 D+15 .18 Slaughter No Safe
VT-AL D+9 .84 Welch No Safe
Trivia: HI-01 has the highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino: 75%. NY-11 is the smallest district in the country (just 12 sq. miles). NY-15 and 16 are tied for the most Democratic Cook PVI in the country.
Those held by Republicans
DE-AL D+5 .50
DE is a small state, made outsize by politics
Castle, first elected in 1992, is the last remaining Republican in the state government; he’s among the most moderate Republicans. In 2006 he was held under 60% for the first time since he got in. He might yet retire, as he has been ill.
Confirmed challengers: Jerry Northington who is possum on dailyKos and Karen Hartley-Nagle
NY-03 D+3 .75
NY-03 is the middle of Long Island – the eastern part of Nassau and the southern edge of the western part of Suffolk
King, first elected in 1992, was held to 56% in 2006 against David Mejias, even though King spent more than twice as much
There are no confirmed challengers – very disappointing, this is a competitive district!
NY-13 D+1 .30
NY-13 is mostly Staten Island, which is technically NY City, but is really different from the rest of the city
Fosella, first elected in 1997, has had closer races lately: He got 59% in 2004, and 57% in 2006. In 2006, he outspent Stephen Harrison by 11-1.
Harrison is running again; as is Domenic Recchia (no web site).
NY-23 R+0 .81
NY-23 is the northernmost district in NY, bordering Canada and VT
McHugh, first elected in 1992, has won easily without raising much cash
His challenger this time is Mike Oot
NY-25 D+3 .55
NY-25 is the northern part of the thin part of NY, bordering Lake Ontario and including Syracuse
Walsh, first elected in 1988, is retiring
No confirmed Republicans, but on our side Dan Maffei is running
NY-26 R+3 .70
NY-26 is in northeastern NY, not quite bordering Lake Ontario (see NY-28)
Reynolds, first elected in 1998, has had close and very expensive elections. In 2006, he spent over $5 million and beat Jack Davis 52-48 (Davis spent almost $2.5 million)
This year, confirmed challengers are Jon Powers and Alice Kryzan
NY-29 R+5 .72
NY-29 is the southern part of the thin part of NY, bordering PA
Kuhl, first elected in 2004, had a very close race in 2006 against Eric Massa
Massa is running again
Summary
DE-AL might be competitive; if Castle retires, it’s a likely pickup
NY-03 ought to have a good challenger.
NY-13 is competitive.
NY-25 looks interesting
NY-26 and NY-29 are competitive
Is interesting??? Mate we will win this one. This is one of the Kerry Repub districts and now no Repub.
Castle has been fund raising. He has over $1.5 million in the bank (up from $1.2), the largest amount of cash on hand of any Republican in the Northeast. Maybe he’s not so sickly after all. Randy Kuhl has money problems, so does Vito Fossella.
Best guess is that we take two or three more seats in New York with Maffei getting one of them.
Didn’t Yvette Clark have health problems? She missed a bunch of votes and hasn’t raised much money.
I wish money was a smaller part of these discussions but it is important and in many districts it is the only hard data available. Speaking of money, Bill Foster beat John Laesch by a mere 323 votes in IL-14 for the full-time primary. Foster won the “special” by 3,000 votes. The difference was the presence of Joe Serra who drained votes from Foster.