“cross posted at Election Inspection
Things are heating up down south in New Mexico and even the wind driven snow and ice falling in Pennsylvania today can’t cool off the great news Democrats have at the filing deadline today.
The turmoil in New Mexico continues with all 4 seats up for election this year open. All 3 of the Congressman from this state are running for the open Senate seat which has created a free-for-all at the Congressional level in all 3 seats.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats have quietly racked up several pick up opportunities. In a state that is trending blue, more and more pressure is being put on long time Republican incumbents and the Democrats are putting the pedal to the metal in their efforts to oust them.
New Mexico’s 1st CD is our best pick up opportunity in this state and Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich is running. Heinrich has done a good job so far of raising money and support, but will have a very competetive primary as several Democrats have gotten into this race including former Secratary of State Rebecca Virgil Giron and former State Health Secratary Michelle Lujon Grisham. Heinrich appears to enjoy a slight early advantage and no matter who the candidate is out of these 3, this Dem leaning district will be a hotly contested seat.
New Mexico 2 is also a pick up opportunity though it is a Republican leaning district. Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague appear to be the front runners in this race. McCamley raised more money in donations this past quarter but Teague gave himself over 200,000 dollars and has a financial advantage. Either candidate should run strong in this district and keep Republicans defending their own turf instead of attacking ours.
In Pennsylvania’s 3rd CD, Incumbent Republican Phil English is starting to feel the brunt of Democratic efforts to oust him. Erie County Councilman Kyle Foust has entered this race and has begun raising money, but he lists as 4th for the most total funds raised last quarter behind Kathleen Dahlkemper, Thomas Myers, and Mike Waltner. While I believe that Foust is probably the best positions candidate to win the race, with the amount of cash flowing in this district, Democrats will keep it competetive.
CD 4 is a Democratic defensive district with Congressman Jason Altmire facing off against the former incumbent, Melissa Hart. Altmire has the advatage going into this race and should be able to hold it, but this will be competetive none the less unless Democrats can really restrain the Republicans finances, which they may well do.
In the 5th CD, Republican John Peterson is retiring. The Republicans have a huge primary while the Democrats have 2 major candidates in the race. Clearfield County Commissioner Mike McCracken and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello. While this district does lean to the Republicans, it is another location that can be contested with the money we have available.
CD 10 is another defensive district for the Democrats. Congressman Chris Carney represents this Republican leaning district and faces a slew of Republicans that will hopefully battle to each others death in the primary. Carney has been raising money and is set to face this match up and hold this seat.
CD 15 is held by Republican Charlie Dent and the lone Democrat is Sam Bennett, the former Allentown Democratic party chair and 1 time candidate for Allentown Mayor. Bennett has raised a decent amount of money though he still lacks in the cashflow department to Dent. If Democrats really want to heavily contest this seat, the money needs to start coming in. This race has potential if it is taken advantage of.
For the final district in PA. we visit CD 18, where Republican Tim Murphy faces a big challenge by Democrats with Beth Hafer as the lead candidate. Hafer is the daughter of former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer and is a businesswoman in the community. Hafer is considered a good recruit by the DCCC and should have the funds to make this race a good one.
With 8 seats up for grabs in these 2 states and 2 of those seats being defensive seats, it is imperative for Democrats to apply the pressure to take as many seats as possible in these 2 states. Both states will be crititcal in the efforts to expand noth only the house majority, but the senate majority now and into the future as well as capture the White House this year. The more solid and well funded challengers we have at the lower levels of the ballot, the better off the higher levels of the ballot will be.
Sam Benett is a woman. Interesting enough, she quotes Benawu on her web site. Cool, indeed, and props to Benawu (she does pick it off Open Left, but that’s OK).
Two Democrats in PA appear to be getting a free ride with no Republican opposition this cycle: John Murtha and Mike Doyle. PA-6 was a monster battle in 2006 and may well be one in 2008. But first, the Democrats have a primary. Keep the gloves on. Gerlach is the ultimate opponent.
English has about $200 K more at this point than last cycle but he also knows he’ll get more of a formal fight and the district was surprisingly close in 2006.
Oddly, Republicans seem to be emphasizing PA-11 where Kanjorski as of 12/31 had $1,458,000 and Lou Barletta had $425 plus a sizeable debt. Either this is a fake out or they are wasting resources better used in PA-10, PA-6, PA-15, and PA-3.
At this point, I think we hold 10 and pick up 6. Third time’s the charm, here. I’d love to pick up 15 or 3. Time will tell if we get traction.
Hafer has underperformed a little bit in the fundraising department, even though she was the “big name” at the outset. The lead fundraiser in the district among Democrats is a guy named Steve O’Donnell, who is well over $200K for the cycle (Hafer, by comparison, is sitting on about $103K). Most of that was a candidate loan, though, IIRC.
competitive Bob Roggio might be in PA-6?