Continuing through the alphabet….
Minnesota has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is July 15, primary is Sept. 9
District: MN-01
Location Southern MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD
Representative Tim Walz (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 53-37
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Notes on opponents Walz ousted Gutknecht while raising $500 K less
Current opponents Dick Day, Mark Meyer, Brian Davis
Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; Superribbie ranks this the 17th most vulnerable Democratic seat; still, Walz has to be favored.
District: MN-02
Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities
Representative John Kline (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 56-40
2004 margin 56-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Collen Rowley raised $700K to Kline’s $1.5 million; in 2004, Teresa Daly raised $1.2 million to Kline’s $1.6 million
Current opponents Steve Sarvi
Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)
Assessment Possible. Superribbie calls the 69th most vulnerable Republican seat. I think it might be more vul. than that. Kline’s winning percentage isn’t rising with time, he did barely better than Bush in 2004.
District: MN-03
Location Suburbs of the twin cities
Representative Jim Ramstad (R) possibly retiring
First elected 1990
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money
Current opponents :
Terri Bonoff
Ashwin Madia
and former Repub: Jim Hovland
Demographics 26th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Black (3.8%)
Assessment So far as I can tell, Ramstad is retiring, making this a prime pickup opportunity; superribbie ranks this as the 12th most vulnerable Republican seat.
District: MN-04
Location St. Paul and suburbs
Representative Betty McCollum (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 57-33
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Notes on opponents In 2004, Patrice Bataglia raised $200K to McCollum’s $700K; in 2006, Obi Sium raised $75K to McCollum’s $600K
Current opponents John Mayer, possibly others. Mayer seems to have no website, others’ sites are down
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MN-05
Location Minneapolis and suburbs
Representative Keith Ellison (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 56-21 (remainder to an independent)
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Notes on opponents Tammy Lee actually raised more money than the Republican (Alan Fine) and got almost the same number of votes. Each raised about $200K, Ellison raised about $800K
Current opponents Apparently Barb White, who also might be running in MN-04, or maybe not running at all
Demographics 45th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe
District: MN-06
Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border
Representative Michele Bachmann (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-42 (remainder to John Binkowski)
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Notes on opponents Bachmann beat out Wetterling for an open seat. Each spent about $3 million – Bachmann a little less, Wetterling a little more
Current opponents :
Bob Olson and
Elwyn Tinklenberg
Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment We have definite possibilities. superribbie (link above) ranks this the 45th most vulnerable Republ
District: MN-07
Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada
Representative Collin Peterson (D)
First elected 1990
2006 margin 70-29
2004 margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 55-43
Notes on opponents In 2004, David Sturrock raised $125K to Peterson’s $500K. In 2006, Michael Barrett raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment I don’t call a lot of people DINO, but Peterson is a DINO. Still, he wins, he doesn’t use a lot of money, and he lines up on the D side, and this is a Republican district
District: MN-08
Location Northeastern MN, bordering WI, Lake Superior, and Canada, including Duluth and International Falls
Representative Jim Oberstar (D)
First elected 1974
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 65-32
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents In 2006, Rod Grams raised $500K to Oberstar’s $1.4 million; the 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment safe