Latest Senate Polls

cross-posted from Election Inspection

According to the most recent polls taken, Democrats stand to pick up 5 Senate seats (AK, MN, NH, NM, VA). Two more are tossups (CO, MS-B), and only one Democratic-held seat is vulnerable enough to rate Lean Democratic (LA). Check out the polls below the fold; some are recent, some are old!

State Incumbent Poll Dem Candidate % Rep Candidate %
AL Sessions SUSA 8/25-8/27 Figures 37 Sessions 59
AK Stevens R2K 12/3-12/6 Begich 47 Stevens 41
CO Allard Rasmussen 2/11 Mark Udall 43 Schaffer 44
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9 Vernon Jones 27 Chambliss 57
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9 Dale Cardwell 25 Chambliss 57
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9 Rand Knight 23 Chambliss 58
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9 Josh Lainer 22 Chambliss 58
ID Craig Myers Research 11/13-11/19 LaRocco 34 Risch 48
LA Landrieu SUSA 12/06-12/10 Landrieu 46 Kennedy 42
ME Collins SUSA 10/26-10/29 Allen 38 Collins 55
MN Coleman Rasmussen 2/16 Franken 49 Coleman 46
MS Wicker (replaces Lott) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12/2-12/5 Musgrove 48 Wicker 34
MS Wicker (replaces Lott) Research 2000 12/10-12/12 Musgrove 39 Wicker 47
NE Hagel Research 2000 11/12-11/14 Kleeb 39 Johanns 47
NH Sununu Rasmussen 2/13 Shaheen 49 Sununu 41
NJ Lautenberg Rasmussen 2/27 Lautenberg 46 Joe Pennacchio 38
NJ Lautenberg Rasmussen 2/27 Lautenberg 46 Murray Sabrin 31
NM Domenici NM State U. 1/22-1/31 Tom Udall 58 Heather Wilson 30
NM Domenici NM State U. 1/22-1/31 Tom Udall 53 Steve Pearce 31
NC Dole PPP 1/21 Kay Hagan 35 Dole 48
NC Dole PPP 1/21 Jim Neal 30 Dole 49
OR Smith Rasmussen 2/13 Jeff Merkley 30 Smith 48
OR Smith Rasmussen 2/13 Steve Novick 35 Smith 48
SD Johnson Rasmussen 3/4 Johnson 63 Joel Dykstra 28
TX Cornyn Research 2000 9/24-9/26 Noriega 35 Cornyn 51
VA John Warner Rasmussen 2/19 Mark Warner 57 Gilmore 37

Election Inspection will be tracking these polls through November and beyond.

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7 thoughts on “Latest Senate Polls”

  1. to your poll, I’d say it depends on our presidential nominee. Obama at the top of the ticket will max out African-American participation in Mississippi, and hopefully that will generate coattails. Clinton, not so much.

    (Oregon is tough to call, because while Obama polls much better vs. McCain than Clinton, that might or might not generate coattails. Obama is likely to bring out people who might otherwise stay home for a Clinton/McCain contest, who hopefully will vote downballot too. On the other hand, older moderate Oregonians love to split tickets, so perhaps they might feel they’ve done their ticket-splitting civic duty by voting for McCain over Clinton, and then feel free to vote for Merkley or Novick down the ballot.)

  2. . . . if there were only one senate seat up for election this year.  Somehow, I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which Musgrove miraculously beats Wicker while Cochran gets re-elected and McCain (with a southern governor as his VP) takes the state at the presidential level.  If enough Dems turned out to vote for Musgrove, the whole state would go for us.  It’s not going to.  Mississippi is too damn red.  

    Still, it’s great that Musgrove can literally give Wicker and the GOP a run for their money.  The fact that the Republicans will have to spend money and fight in a state they usually take for granted means that they have fewer resources with which to fight us in places like . . . I dunno . . . Maine and Oregon?  Hmmm.

    I wouldn’t give up so easily on Maine and Oregon, by the way.  Yes, we are severely behind in both of those states right now.  Yes, those are major uphill battles against entrenched, well-liked incumbents who are perceived as “moderate.”  But there’s a lot of time between now and Election Day.  Who knows what party-wide scandals might crop up for the GOP?  Or how strong the presidential coattails will be?  Or whether Collins or Smith has a “macaca moment” of some sort on the campaign trail? (Remember, at this point in ’06, Virginia wasn’t even on our radar).  This is politics.  Anything can happen, and we need to be ready to jump into action at any moment.  So, that means we gotta keep our sleeves rolled up and keep working, whether it’s through donations, on-the-ground volunteerism, or awareness out here on the blogs.  No giving up!

  3. Seriously, do any of you think that come November we will see Collins out and Allen in?

    Also, what parts of Maine are the most Democratic and most Republican?

  4. This is pretty much in line with my thoughts.  I’ve been predicting 57 Democrats in the next Senate, with VA, NM, NH, and MN as pickups, along with two of AK, MS, CO, and NC, in roughly that order.  While I really hope Udall can win in CO, I’m concerned that he may not fit the state as well as Salazar.  I just think that Collins and Smith have too well proven survivor skills to go down this year, although I hope I’m wrong.  On the other hand, both could be counted on to help get to 60 votes on a lot of important issues.

    As far as my state of NC, this assumes Democrats nominate Hagen and not Neal.  While I personally would vote for Neal, I think the optimism by NC netroots that North Carolinians would elect an openly gay senator in 2008 is misplaced.  I’m not sure MA would elect an openly gay senator today!  Senator Hagen is popular here in the Triad, will rise in popularity in the rest of the state as she becomes better known in the six months between the primary and the general election, and I believe she has learned from her late uncle how to win as a Democrat in a state that is favorable to Republicans.  Plus North Carolinians love voting for women, and when both candidates are women, we have a pattern of voting for the Democrat.  While not a favorite going in, I think she would have a legitimate chance to be the “surprise” Democratic winner that always seems to happen in good Democratic Senate years (see ’00 and ’06, e.g.)

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