Use It or Lose It 2008: Democratic Cash On Hand in Safe HouseSeats

Last cycle, Chris Bowers (then of MyDD) launched a campaign to encourage Democrats in safe or unopposed seats to kick in 30% of their cash on hand balance to the DCCC.  Chris dubbed the project “Use It or Lose It.”  Members were identified and contacted (often by constituents) who encouraged the largesse.

At this point in the cycle, filing deadlines have passed for roughly half the seats in the House and a limited NRCC budget means that many House Democrats will face pretty clear sailing in the fall general election.  One thing the fine series of state and district profiles by plf515 proves, is that Democratic seats are on the whole far safer than Republican seats.  A tool like PVI actually underestimates how many of the seats are safe because some southern and Plains representatives pile up nice margins in districts with a Republican or neutral lean in the Presidential contest.

Last night, I saw the pretty much final results of California filing posted on their Secretary of State’s site.  Democrats filed in 51 of the 53 districts (missing CA-19 and CA-22), while Republicans left seven seats unopposed.  One of those candidates, Laura Richardson, faces primary opposition and has a small cash balance so she was left out but the other six were added to my list of cash resources.  

My previous list in a comment relied on my memory and judgement.  I have used plf515’s data for 2006, 2004, 2004 Presidential, and PVI to flesh out the profiles.  Even using Bowers’ 30% formula, the balances would be enough to add a stunning $20 million to the DCCC war chest.  Last time around, Chris shook out over $3 million.  The difference is mostly in improved fund raising now that the Democrats in the House have reclaimed the majority.  So, with some comments, here is the updated list.

Bud Cramer, AL-5  $1,788,433 retiring

Artur Davis, AL-7 $804,308

Davis was unopposed in 2006 and racked up a 75-25 win in 2004.  Bush was held to 35% and the PVI is D+7 in ALabama.  

Marion Berry, AR-1 $494,054

Berry is unopposed this cycle.  Even when opposed he totaled 69% in 2006 and 67% in 2004.

Mike Ross, AR-4 $721,925

Ross is also unopposed.  He won 75% in 2006 and was unopposed in 2004.

Ed Pastor, AZ-4 $1,222,975

Ed racked up 73-24 and 70-26 wins in 2006 and 2004.  His Arizona district sports a PVI of D+14.

Mike Thompson, CA-1 $1,009,587

Thompson posted 66-29 and 67-28 wins in incumbent friendly California in 2006 and 2004.  His district is D+10.

Tom Lantos, CA-12 (deceased recently) $1,375,049

I don’t know what the legal situation is here.  Prior to 1994, the unspent balance of a congress person’s campaign fund was theirs upon retirement.  Now it can only be spent on another federal campaign (Senate, Presidential).  Tom was a Holocaust survivor and clearly other projects would merit funding as well.

Dennis Cardoza, CA-18 $415,825 Unopposed

Brad Sherman, CA-27 $1,630,301

Brad won by 69-31 in 2006 and 62-33 in 2004.  His district is D+13.

Howard Berman, CA-28 $748,436 Unopposed

Henry Waxman, CA-30 $738,512 Unopposed

Xavier Becerra, CA-31 $489,718 Unopposed

Hilda Solis, CA-32 $182,435 Unopposed

Grace Napolitano, CA-38 $274,991 Unopposed

Allen Boyd, FL-2 $1,029,813

The veteran conservative Democrat ran unopposed in 2006 and won 62-38 in 2004.  Although the district is R+2 that is a deceiving number here.

Robert Wexler, FL-19 $1,361,082

Wexler was unopposed in both 2006 and 2004.  Wouldn’t have mattered as his district is a cozy D+21.

Neil Abercrombie, HI-1 $1,044,182

69-31 in 2006 and 63-34 in 2004 in a D+7 district.

Jesse Jackson, Jr.  IL-2 $645,335

I believe he has no Republican opposition and the Illinois primary is over.  Not that that would matter.  Jess Jr. piled up 85-12 and 88-12 margins the last two cycles and his district is an incredible D+35.  No misprint.  D+35.

Rahm Emanuel IL-5 $1,598,801

Rahm won going away piling up 78-22 and 76-24 margins from his D+18 district.  Politics 1 lists no Republican opponent but either way does it matter?

Jerry Costello, IL-12 $1,814,895

Costello was unopposed in 2006 but had a 69-29 cakewalk in 2004.  His district’s PVI is just D+5 but that is not a meaningful number in his case.

Pete Viscloskey, IN-1 $1,538,630

Viscloskey posted a 68-32 victory in 2004 and expanded it to 70-27 in 2006.  His PVI is D+8 in beet red (at a presidential level) Indiana.

Julia Carson, IN-7

Carson is deceased but she left only $118,000 in the bank for her campaign fund.

Ben Chandler, KY-6 $1,024,862

Chandler piled up an 85-15 margin in 2006 against a Libertarian and a 59-40 edge in 2004.  With Ernie Fletcher at the top of the ballot in 2008, Kentucky Republicans have a lot to hid.  Yes, it’s R+7 but he is safe, safe, safe.

Richard Neal, MA-2 $1,680,986

76-23 in 2006; Unopposed in 2004; D+13

Marty Meehan, MA-5 $4,997,012is year’s session to take the job as President of UMASS-Lowell.  Meehan publicly fought against the call to cash in some of his huge hoard calling it “extortion.”  Oddly, he is allied with Common Cause and is the co-father of campaign reform in the House (Shays-Meehan).  He fought against the blogs and group efforts before while he continued to raise obscene amounts to further pad a huge bank roll.  Don’t know if you can chip it now, Marty, but if not, a lot of this should have funded Nikki Tsongas’ campaign for your seat.

John Tierney, MA-6  $1,293.230

70-30;70-30,;D+11

Stephen Lynch, MA-9 $1,189,148

78-22; unopposed; D+15

William DeLaHunt, MA-10 $1,749,866

64-29; 66-34; D+9

Steny Hoyer, MD-5  $1,564,746  D+9

Chris Van Hollen, MD-8 $1,992,828  D+20

plf had not updated in Round 2 for Maryland but these are people who will kick in and will kick in beyond the 30%.  I have said some bad things over the years about Hoyer but he is a prolific fund raiser for other House members.

John Dingell, MI-15 $1,211,399

The old war horse has represented this district for over 50 years, the longest run in the House. Fwiw, his numbers are 76-23 in 2006. unopposed in 2004 and a D+13 district.

Bennie Thompson, MS-2  $848,842

64-36 in 2006 and 58-40 in 2004.  As his money edge grows, Thompson is stretching this out into an automatic re-elect in a D+10 “majority Minority” district.

Earl Pomeroy, ND-At Large $1,130,511

Pomeroy has been a half-hearted GOP target in years past.  The efforts keep getting weaker.

Rob Andrews, NJ-1  $2,383,585

Frank Pallone, NJ-6 $3,250,178

William Pascrell, NJ-8 $1,137,590

Steve Rothman, NJ-9 $2,002,787

Donald Payne< NJ-10 $983,940

All but Payne are rumored to be saving up lest Frank Lautenberg suddenly retire.  Andrews and Payne went unopposed in 2006 and none of the group has scored below 67% in either of the last two cycles.  Payne has a dandy D+34 PVI in his district.

The only other reason to hold on is smarmy Chris Chrisitie, the state’s US Attorney whose mission in life is to prosecute politicians.  Chrisitie was an equal opportunity prosecutor but now goes after only Democrats in order to save his hjob from Rove’s axe.  Crusader Rabbit has been accused of massive corruption himself by Blue Jersey for steering $3 million in contracts to well connected GOP allies and his old firm.  Chrisitie’s reponse is typical” go after Blue Jersey.

Shelley Berkley, NV-1 $1,159,484

Shelley represents Vegas and has 65-31 and 66-31 margins the last two cycles.  D+8  In this case what happens in Vegas should not stay in Vegas.

Steve Israel, NY-2 $1,004,593

70-30 in 2006; 67-33 in 2004; D+8

Carolyn Maloney, NY-14 $1,108,487; D+26

Her margins in this NYC district are 84-16 and 81-19.  It is hard to expand on 81-19 but she did it.

Charlie Rangel, NY-15 $2,265,159

My excel spreadsheet treated Bush’s 9-90 loss in the district as a date (September 1990).  Of course, Rangel runs ahead of his ticket:  he won 91-7 in 2004 and 94-6 in 2006.  His district’s PVI is D+43.

Once the fact or even possibility of a primary is over, these should be cash cows.  Rangel kicked in in 2006.  

None of the rest have election data so:

Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 $846,226 D+9

Darlene Hooley, OR-5 $467,45 D+1 retiring

Allyson Schwartz, PA-13 $1,619,431 D+8

Patrick Kennedy, RI-1 $700,939 D+16

Jim Clyburn, SC-6 $1,065,327 D+11

John Tanner, TN-8 $1,181,776 D+0

Lloyd Doggett, TX-25 $2,337,581 D+1

Ric Boucher, VA-9 $1,191,069

David Obey, WI-7 $1,235,145

Nick Rahall, WV $1,235,145

IIRC, Kaptur was thrust into a battle of incumbents when redistricted.  She may want the nest egg.

Tanner has higher aspirations.  Governor?  He’s a leading blue dog and (in general) many of the blue dogs have been generous within their group but nit so generous with the DCCC universe as a whole.

The total cash on hand for these individuals is a gawdy $66,832,840.  Uding the Bowers allocation of 30%, a maximum of $20,049,852 could be realized.  This is big money.  Half a million per race for 40 races.