Tag: cash on hand

Thanks to Benawu, it’s pretty easy to make a list of Republican seats sorted by Cook PVI scores.  (The information is also available at Wikipedia, btw, but I trust Benawu).  FEC reports are also pretty accessible at www.fec.gov so it’s a nice research project.

Well, to keep things manageable I looked up the cash on hand balances of all Republican incumbents and the leading money raising challenger for Republican seats that are open this cycle.  Excell allows for some comparisons.

The average cash balance for these 78 seats is $720,059.  The average for the 55 incumbents is $819,234; the average for the 13 open seats is $224,184.  There’s the value of incumbency in dollars and cents.  Republicans in Democratic territory, those with a PVI of D+1 or higher, were a bit better funded but incumbency trumped everything else.  The 13 Republicans averaged $838,144 with ten incumbents in these seats at $1,031,027 and three open seats averaging $195,201.

An analysis of each of the Lean D sistricts and competes on particularly weak Republicans follows below the fold.  I’d include the entire spreadsheet but I don’t know how to import it.  

Republicans in D Land

D+7 is Delaware and Mike Castle.  Castle is sitting on $1,547,493.  Somebody, Jerry Northington, Dennis Spivack, Beau Biden, needs to make a run at him.  Ine run will probably cut this down to manageable and beatable size.  Yes, this is a sore spot.

D+5 is Chris Shays.  Shays scores well on Progressive Punch but he is not only a proponent of the Iraq War but is one of the most outspoken proponents of torture.  Even though the latest figures (April 20 from my notes) give him  $1,247,000 and a $200 K lead on Jim Himes we are in the ball park.  He won’t have Joe Lieberman’s coat tails this time.  We need to take him out this time.

D+4 leaves us with the well heeled Frank Lo Biondo (NJ-2) and the even heelier Mark Kirk.  Moderate Republicans but Kirk had the fight of his life last cycle and Dan Seals is back for more.  A lot of people talk about Obama’s coat tails.  Well, if it shows up anywhere this is it.  LoBiondo has had a series of free rides.  Time to give him a tussle.

D+3 gives us two races both open seats with a financial edge to the Democrats.  Yeah. baby.  In NJ-3, John Adler has $1,003,551 while the Republican is at $288,100.  Srick a fork in him?

In NY-25, Dan Maffei’s “opponent” has yet to show a $1 in the bank.  Maffei has $675,660.  I honestly think that the NY State GOP is conceding this House seat.

D+2 has four House seats held by Republicans with one, NM-1, open.  Looking good.  The lead Republican has $297,499.  Nice but not overwhelming.  Look for McCain to slurp up a lot of outside funding and for the GOP to leave this seat to fend for itself.  (you did see those Udall polls up-ticket)  The other three seats show one with an incumbent being outraised (WA-8) where Darcy Burner appears to have the edge (finally) on Dave Reichert.  Two others, both in PA, give the early money lead to the Republican incumbents.  Neither Gerlach in PA-6 ($714,580 to $168,259) nor Charlie Dent in PA-15 ($182,830) is home free by any means.

D+1 has only three seat including the weakest incumbent Republican on the board.  That’s Vito Fossella.  Fossella has only $248,100 in the bank and that’s after a vigorous fund raising campaign in the first quarter that rescued him from a pathetic $50 K cash on hand.  He’s cancelling fund raisers, enmeshed in scandals (plural, the DUI, the mistress, the child).  And he’s outraised by Recchia with new candidates from both parties chomping at the bit.  One has to go all the way to R+6 to find an incumbent Republican running for re-election with a smaller bank account than Vito Fossella (Ken Calvert of CA-44 and Tim Johnson of IL-15).

As for the other D+1 Republicans, Jon Porter has $1,083,693 in NV-3 and he will need it against Dina Titus.  Bill Young may get a vigorous challenge for once.  He was my congressman in the 70’s (and 80s) and is still there with $555,655 in the bank.  The GOP plan appears to be for Young, who has been in the House since 1970, to take it to re-districting. I haven’t seen it written anywhere but it makes sense.  In four years they hope to draw more friendly lines.  This seems to be our best chance before 2012.

Speaking of low hanging fruit, here come the underfunded and open seats:

NY-23 McHugh $261,698 (O, actually R+0.2)  Oot (not a typo)is seriously underfunded as his opponent but McHugh could be the victim of a late charge if the DCCC has money in its coffers.

NJ-7 Open, R+1.  Linda Stender has a serious cash lead ($845 K) as former firsr daughter Kate Whittman ($307 K) takes on Leonard Lance ($255 K)and others in a primary.  The district has already rejected another first child, Tom Keane, Jr., in a recent GOP primary duel.  We lost this seat by 2.000 votes last time with the Out of Iraq Now party or some such pulling 3,000.  Should win here.

MN-1 Open, R+1.  Jim Ramstad is gone but Ash Madia seems to be facing a money gap against Erik Paulsen.

MN-2, Kline, R+3.  This may be the sleeper of this cycle.  Kline is clearly conservative.  Ramstad and Bachmann’s districts will get the attention and Kline is sitting against Steve Sarvi with just $375 K in the bank.  Attack everywhere and someplace will be open (see Lincoln re: New Orleans capture).

OH-15, Open, R+1.  Mary Jo Kilroy came close last time and is a local official.  In some ways we may have the incumbency factor here.  Steve Stivers has done a great job of fund raising for the Republicans with $599,689.

VA-11, open, R+1.  Feels the same as OH-15.  Again, the GOP has raised cash here: $742,045.

AZ-1, open, R+2.  Scandal plagued Rick Renzi leaves this seat.  Ann Kirkpatrick has a 2-1 fund raising edge over “cowgirl” (not) Sydney Hay in a likely all-female faceoff.

CA-45, Bono Mack, R+3.  New husband (Connie Mack of FL-14) 3,000 miles away may cause Mary Bono Mack to leave this Palm Springs district a little unattended.  At $344,123 she’s one of the most poorly funded incumbents on this list.

NC-8, Robin Hates, R+3.  Self-funder Robin Hayes is loaded with $987 K against Larry Kissell.  No surprises this time, Larry.  Got to beat his pampered butt for real.

FL-15, open, R+4.  Nobody has really geared up to take Dave Weldon’s seat.  Why not us?

IL-18, open, R+5.  Aaron Schock is a loud mouthed kid who the GOP has annointed as a golden boy.  Only he has little cash advantage (only $188 k vs. over $100 K) vs. media savvy Coleen Callahan.  Save us from another one of these congressional brats.  Please.  We have a real good chance, here.

VA-10, Wolf, R+6.  Yes he’s got $715 K but Judy Feder can raise the green stuff, too.  The district is shading more blue.  Is this the time?

OH-7, open, R+6.  Their candidate has $51,819.

CA-44, Calvert, R+6.  Give it a whirl at $222 K.

CA-46, Rohrabacher, R+6.  $331 K in the bank.  Less than half the national average; 40% what the average incumbent carries on this list.

IL-15, Tim Johnson, R+6.  $106,759.  Johnson is a) principled, b)lazy, c)one heck of a poker player d) stupid/”lucky”.  Don’t know bur gee is that a tempting number to cause problems.

Last cycle, Chris Bowers (then of MyDD) launched a campaign to encourage Democrats in safe or unopposed seats to kick in 30% of their cash on hand balance to the DCCC.  Chris dubbed the project “Use It or Lose It.”  Members were identified and contacted (often by constituents) who encouraged the largesse.

At this point in the cycle, filing deadlines have passed for roughly half the seats in the House and a limited NRCC budget means that many House Democrats will face pretty clear sailing in the fall general election.  One thing the fine series of state and district profiles by plf515 proves, is that Democratic seats are on the whole far safer than Republican seats.  A tool like PVI actually underestimates how many of the seats are safe because some southern and Plains representatives pile up nice margins in districts with a Republican or neutral lean in the Presidential contest.

Last night, I saw the pretty much final results of California filing posted on their Secretary of State’s site.  Democrats filed in 51 of the 53 districts (missing CA-19 and CA-22), while Republicans left seven seats unopposed.  One of those candidates, Laura Richardson, faces primary opposition and has a small cash balance so she was left out but the other six were added to my list of cash resources.  

My previous list in a comment relied on my memory and judgement.  I have used plf515’s data for 2006, 2004, 2004 Presidential, and PVI to flesh out the profiles.  Even using Bowers’ 30% formula, the balances would be enough to add a stunning $20 million to the DCCC war chest.  Last time around, Chris shook out over $3 million.  The difference is mostly in improved fund raising now that the Democrats in the House have reclaimed the majority.  So, with some comments, here is the updated list.

Bud Cramer, AL-5  $1,788,433 retiring

Artur Davis, AL-7 $804,308

Davis was unopposed in 2006 and racked up a 75-25 win in 2004.  Bush was held to 35% and the PVI is D+7 in ALabama.  

Marion Berry, AR-1 $494,054

Berry is unopposed this cycle.  Even when opposed he totaled 69% in 2006 and 67% in 2004.

Mike Ross, AR-4 $721,925

Ross is also unopposed.  He won 75% in 2006 and was unopposed in 2004.

Ed Pastor, AZ-4 $1,222,975

Ed racked up 73-24 and 70-26 wins in 2006 and 2004.  His Arizona district sports a PVI of D+14.

Mike Thompson, CA-1 $1,009,587

Thompson posted 66-29 and 67-28 wins in incumbent friendly California in 2006 and 2004.  His district is D+10.

Tom Lantos, CA-12 (deceased recently) $1,375,049

I don’t know what the legal situation is here.  Prior to 1994, the unspent balance of a congress person’s campaign fund was theirs upon retirement.  Now it can only be spent on another federal campaign (Senate, Presidential).  Tom was a Holocaust survivor and clearly other projects would merit funding as well.

Dennis Cardoza, CA-18 $415,825 Unopposed

Brad Sherman, CA-27 $1,630,301

Brad won by 69-31 in 2006 and 62-33 in 2004.  His district is D+13.

Howard Berman, CA-28 $748,436 Unopposed

Henry Waxman, CA-30 $738,512 Unopposed

Xavier Becerra, CA-31 $489,718 Unopposed

Hilda Solis, CA-32 $182,435 Unopposed

Grace Napolitano, CA-38 $274,991 Unopposed

Allen Boyd, FL-2 $1,029,813

The veteran conservative Democrat ran unopposed in 2006 and won 62-38 in 2004.  Although the district is R+2 that is a deceiving number here.

Robert Wexler, FL-19 $1,361,082

Wexler was unopposed in both 2006 and 2004.  Wouldn’t have mattered as his district is a cozy D+21.

Neil Abercrombie, HI-1 $1,044,182

69-31 in 2006 and 63-34 in 2004 in a D+7 district.

Jesse Jackson, Jr.  IL-2 $645,335

I believe he has no Republican opposition and the Illinois primary is over.  Not that that would matter.  Jess Jr. piled up 85-12 and 88-12 margins the last two cycles and his district is an incredible D+35.  No misprint.  D+35.

Rahm Emanuel IL-5 $1,598,801

Rahm won going away piling up 78-22 and 76-24 margins from his D+18 district.  Politics 1 lists no Republican opponent but either way does it matter?

Jerry Costello, IL-12 $1,814,895

Costello was unopposed in 2006 but had a 69-29 cakewalk in 2004.  His district’s PVI is just D+5 but that is not a meaningful number in his case.

Pete Viscloskey, IN-1 $1,538,630

Viscloskey posted a 68-32 victory in 2004 and expanded it to 70-27 in 2006.  His PVI is D+8 in beet red (at a presidential level) Indiana.

Julia Carson, IN-7

Carson is deceased but she left only $118,000 in the bank for her campaign fund.

Ben Chandler, KY-6 $1,024,862

Chandler piled up an 85-15 margin in 2006 against a Libertarian and a 59-40 edge in 2004.  With Ernie Fletcher at the top of the ballot in 2008, Kentucky Republicans have a lot to hid.  Yes, it’s R+7 but he is safe, safe, safe.

Richard Neal, MA-2 $1,680,986

76-23 in 2006; Unopposed in 2004; D+13

Marty Meehan, MA-5 $4,997,012is year’s session to take the job as President of UMASS-Lowell.  Meehan publicly fought against the call to cash in some of his huge hoard calling it “extortion.”  Oddly, he is allied with Common Cause and is the co-father of campaign reform in the House (Shays-Meehan).  He fought against the blogs and group efforts before while he continued to raise obscene amounts to further pad a huge bank roll.  Don’t know if you can chip it now, Marty, but if not, a lot of this should have funded Nikki Tsongas’ campaign for your seat.

John Tierney, MA-6  $1,293.230

70-30;70-30,;D+11

Stephen Lynch, MA-9 $1,189,148

78-22; unopposed; D+15

William DeLaHunt, MA-10 $1,749,866

64-29; 66-34; D+9

Steny Hoyer, MD-5  $1,564,746  D+9

Chris Van Hollen, MD-8 $1,992,828  D+20

plf had not updated in Round 2 for Maryland but these are people who will kick in and will kick in beyond the 30%.  I have said some bad things over the years about Hoyer but he is a prolific fund raiser for other House members.

John Dingell, MI-15 $1,211,399

The old war horse has represented this district for over 50 years, the longest run in the House. Fwiw, his numbers are 76-23 in 2006. unopposed in 2004 and a D+13 district.

Bennie Thompson, MS-2  $848,842

64-36 in 2006 and 58-40 in 2004.  As his money edge grows, Thompson is stretching this out into an automatic re-elect in a D+10 “majority Minority” district.

Earl Pomeroy, ND-At Large $1,130,511

Pomeroy has been a half-hearted GOP target in years past.  The efforts keep getting weaker.

Rob Andrews, NJ-1  $2,383,585

Frank Pallone, NJ-6 $3,250,178

William Pascrell, NJ-8 $1,137,590

Steve Rothman, NJ-9 $2,002,787

Donald Payne< NJ-10 $983,940

All but Payne are rumored to be saving up lest Frank Lautenberg suddenly retire.  Andrews and Payne went unopposed in 2006 and none of the group has scored below 67% in either of the last two cycles.  Payne has a dandy D+34 PVI in his district.

The only other reason to hold on is smarmy Chris Chrisitie, the state’s US Attorney whose mission in life is to prosecute politicians.  Chrisitie was an equal opportunity prosecutor but now goes after only Democrats in order to save his hjob from Rove’s axe.  Crusader Rabbit has been accused of massive corruption himself by Blue Jersey for steering $3 million in contracts to well connected GOP allies and his old firm.  Chrisitie’s reponse is typical” go after Blue Jersey.

Shelley Berkley, NV-1 $1,159,484

Shelley represents Vegas and has 65-31 and 66-31 margins the last two cycles.  D+8  In this case what happens in Vegas should not stay in Vegas.

Steve Israel, NY-2 $1,004,593

70-30 in 2006; 67-33 in 2004; D+8

Carolyn Maloney, NY-14 $1,108,487; D+26

Her margins in this NYC district are 84-16 and 81-19.  It is hard to expand on 81-19 but she did it.

Charlie Rangel, NY-15 $2,265,159

My excel spreadsheet treated Bush’s 9-90 loss in the district as a date (September 1990).  Of course, Rangel runs ahead of his ticket:  he won 91-7 in 2004 and 94-6 in 2006.  His district’s PVI is D+43.

Once the fact or even possibility of a primary is over, these should be cash cows.  Rangel kicked in in 2006.  

None of the rest have election data so:

Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 $846,226 D+9

Darlene Hooley, OR-5 $467,45 D+1 retiring

Allyson Schwartz, PA-13 $1,619,431 D+8

Patrick Kennedy, RI-1 $700,939 D+16

Jim Clyburn, SC-6 $1,065,327 D+11

John Tanner, TN-8 $1,181,776 D+0

Lloyd Doggett, TX-25 $2,337,581 D+1

Ric Boucher, VA-9 $1,191,069

David Obey, WI-7 $1,235,145

Nick Rahall, WV $1,235,145

IIRC, Kaptur was thrust into a battle of incumbents when redistricted.  She may want the nest egg.

Tanner has higher aspirations.  Governor?  He’s a leading blue dog and (in general) many of the blue dogs have been generous within their group but nit so generous with the DCCC universe as a whole.

The total cash on hand for these individuals is a gawdy $66,832,840.  Uding the Bowers allocation of 30%, a maximum of $20,049,852 could be realized.  This is big money.  Half a million per race for 40 races.

I was looking through the year end reports for the 30 Democrats elected to formerly Republican seats in 2006 and comparing their cash on hand totals to the Republican challenger with the most cash (with the exception of Mark Foley).  The result showed Democrats with a mighty $27 million to $5 million edge for the group.   Of course, we elect House members on a district by district basis.  And the new Democratic reps lead in every district, in all but a handful by an overwhelming margin.  It was pretty clear that cash was going to be a major “defensive barrier” for Democratic control of the House in 2009 and beyond.  Several other questions came to mind.

First, were there any Democrats seeking re-election who had a cash on hand deficit.  Well, yes, there was one.  One in the whole country.  Nikki Tsongas trailed Jim Oganowski $10,900 to $43,500 but Tsongas had raised and spent $2.6 million in the recent special election.  The figure seemed meaningless.  More like a donor respite than donor fatigue.  Second, how many Republican seats were in a similar deficit?

The answer, was skewed somewhat by the recent spate of retirements.  In some districts, a recent open seat pitted an active Democratic candidate against a testing the waters Republican without much of a warchest.  But that, too, is a reality.  Oh, yes.  The answer is eighteen seats, nearly a tenth of the Republican total.  Here is the list with some comments including the district PVI via Benawu’s listings.

CT-4   PVI = D+5

Democrat Jim Himes shows $800,248 in the bank; New England’s last Republican House member, Chris Shays trails with $797,413.  There will be no Lieberman on the ballot with Shays coat tails either.

NJ-3   PVI= D+3.3

The Democratic candidate of choice for an open seat, John Adler shows $590,595 in the bank.  No Republican dented the FEC reports for this open seat currently held by Jim Saxton.

NJ-7   PVI=R+1

Mike Ferguson, 37 year old Mike Ferguson, gave up the ghost and left this seat open.  Linda Stender, who lost a hard fought election by 3,000 votes in 2006, leads the money race with $502,305 in the bank.  Former first daughter Kate Whitman leads the Republicans with $200,535.  Mommy was barely elected governor -twice.  She “cut” taxes but left a mess.  (Property taxes are very high here.  A later rebate was accompanied by roads badly in need of repair in a state with the highest median income in the country.)

NY-25   PVI=D+3

When Jim Walsh unexpectedly announced his retirement he left Dan Maffei with $439,243 in the bank and no opponent.  Looking good.

NY-29   PVI=R+5

Eric Massa has the cash edge in a rematch against Randy Kuhl.  Massa’a got $414,603; Kuhl has $362,513.  Kuhl has his problems and this was a lot closer than the PVI last time around.

AZ-1   PVI=R+2

In a rare battle of two women, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has nearly a 2-1 edge over Republican Sydney Ann Hay in a battle to succeed the embattled Rick Renzi.  If Democrats hold their seats and win this, they will gain control of Arizona’s House delegation by a surprising 5 to 3 margin.  

CA-4   PVI=R+11

Scandal plagued John Doolittle is off to retirement but Charlie Brown has an early, but solid cash lead with $483,489 to Erik Egland’s $78,700.  Off his near miss in 2006, Brown has the name recognition, too.  It’s a good year, Charlie Brown.

ID-1   PVI=R+19

This may be the biggest stunner on the list.  Freshman Wingnut Bill Sali has $100,023; Walter Minnick has $311,168.  Walter Minnick?

IL-11   PVI=R+1.1

Debbie Halvorson has $393,764; Tim Balderman trails with $50,414 in an open seat battle.  Once more, looking good.

IL-14   PVI=R+5

This is deceptive.  Both candidates are coming off hard primaries.  As of 12/31, millionaire Democrat Bill Foster led multi-millionaire and self-funder Jim Oberweis with $508,792 to $396,975.  Oberweis has already poured $1.6 million into his campaign.  

MI-7   PVI+R+2

Freshman winger Tim Walberg ($438,005) is outraised by Mark Schauer.  Is there an upset brewing?  Only cash seems to stand in the way of gaining seats in Michigan.  

MO-9   PVI+R+7

Kenny Hulshoff recently announced he was running for governor making this an open seat and giving at least a temporary lead to Judy Baker ($101,042).  A girl can dream, can’t she?  Let’s see if Baker gains some traction, here.  

NM-1   PVI=D+2

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Heinrich has a solid  lead over Republican Darren White: $277,146 to $172,558.  Incumbent Heather Wilson, like all the NM Congress critters, is running for the open Senate seat.  We should win this one.  Should anyway.

NM-2   PVI=R+6

Democrat Harry Teague has $362,735; Republican Ed Tinsley has $283,890.  The fall matchup is certainly not set, however.

OH-2   PVI=R+13

Mean Jean Schmidt puts this one in play.  Her 2006 opponent, physician Victoria Wulsin has $344,315; Schmidt lags with $124,857 and is now the leading Republican after “Heimlich maneuvered out.”  It may be easier taking this than keeping it.  Let’s go from there.

TX-10   PVI=R+13

TV judge Larry Doherty has the drop on incumbent Michael McCaul with $267,475 to $115,642.  Doherty first has to get by Dan Grant in a Democratic primary battle.

WA-8   PVI=D+2

In a re-match, Darcy Burner has banked $607,143; incumbent Dave Reichert has $462,828.  Reichert’s local notoriety as the sherriff who put away the Green River Killer is fading; so may be his career in the House.  Burner held him to a virtual tie last time and enjoys better name recognition and more cash than in 2006.  Will this be her year?  Quite possibly.

WY-At Large   PVI=R+19

Gary Trauner nearly pulled this one off in 2006.  He’s got $353,290 in the bank and no Republican has emerged to take the place of Barbara Cubin (Dick Cheney without the charm, who has $1,399 left should she change her mind).  Republicans have to defend two Senate seats in Wyoming and that may also help Trauner.

At least 13 others are reasonably close and many more will become competitive.  The NRCC is cash strapped and the DCCC has a large edge.  Money wise, it looks like a promising cycle at this point.