Thanks to Benawu, it’s pretty easy to make a list of Republican seats sorted by Cook PVI scores. (The information is also available at Wikipedia, btw, but I trust Benawu). FEC reports are also pretty accessible at www.fec.gov so it’s a nice research project.
Well, to keep things manageable I looked up the cash on hand balances of all Republican incumbents and the leading money raising challenger for Republican seats that are open this cycle. Excell allows for some comparisons.
The average cash balance for these 78 seats is $720,059. The average for the 55 incumbents is $819,234; the average for the 13 open seats is $224,184. There’s the value of incumbency in dollars and cents. Republicans in Democratic territory, those with a PVI of D+1 or higher, were a bit better funded but incumbency trumped everything else. The 13 Republicans averaged $838,144 with ten incumbents in these seats at $1,031,027 and three open seats averaging $195,201.
An analysis of each of the Lean D sistricts and competes on particularly weak Republicans follows below the fold. I’d include the entire spreadsheet but I don’t know how to import it.
Republicans in D Land
D+7 is Delaware and Mike Castle. Castle is sitting on $1,547,493. Somebody, Jerry Northington, Dennis Spivack, Beau Biden, needs to make a run at him. Ine run will probably cut this down to manageable and beatable size. Yes, this is a sore spot.
D+5 is Chris Shays. Shays scores well on Progressive Punch but he is not only a proponent of the Iraq War but is one of the most outspoken proponents of torture. Even though the latest figures (April 20 from my notes) give him $1,247,000 and a $200 K lead on Jim Himes we are in the ball park. He won’t have Joe Lieberman’s coat tails this time. We need to take him out this time.
D+4 leaves us with the well heeled Frank Lo Biondo (NJ-2) and the even heelier Mark Kirk. Moderate Republicans but Kirk had the fight of his life last cycle and Dan Seals is back for more. A lot of people talk about Obama’s coat tails. Well, if it shows up anywhere this is it. LoBiondo has had a series of free rides. Time to give him a tussle.
D+3 gives us two races both open seats with a financial edge to the Democrats. Yeah. baby. In NJ-3, John Adler has $1,003,551 while the Republican is at $288,100. Srick a fork in him?
In NY-25, Dan Maffei’s “opponent” has yet to show a $1 in the bank. Maffei has $675,660. I honestly think that the NY State GOP is conceding this House seat.
D+2 has four House seats held by Republicans with one, NM-1, open. Looking good. The lead Republican has $297,499. Nice but not overwhelming. Look for McCain to slurp up a lot of outside funding and for the GOP to leave this seat to fend for itself. (you did see those Udall polls up-ticket) The other three seats show one with an incumbent being outraised (WA-8) where Darcy Burner appears to have the edge (finally) on Dave Reichert. Two others, both in PA, give the early money lead to the Republican incumbents. Neither Gerlach in PA-6 ($714,580 to $168,259) nor Charlie Dent in PA-15 ($182,830) is home free by any means.
D+1 has only three seat including the weakest incumbent Republican on the board. That’s Vito Fossella. Fossella has only $248,100 in the bank and that’s after a vigorous fund raising campaign in the first quarter that rescued him from a pathetic $50 K cash on hand. He’s cancelling fund raisers, enmeshed in scandals (plural, the DUI, the mistress, the child). And he’s outraised by Recchia with new candidates from both parties chomping at the bit. One has to go all the way to R+6 to find an incumbent Republican running for re-election with a smaller bank account than Vito Fossella (Ken Calvert of CA-44 and Tim Johnson of IL-15).
As for the other D+1 Republicans, Jon Porter has $1,083,693 in NV-3 and he will need it against Dina Titus. Bill Young may get a vigorous challenge for once. He was my congressman in the 70’s (and 80s) and is still there with $555,655 in the bank. The GOP plan appears to be for Young, who has been in the House since 1970, to take it to re-districting. I haven’t seen it written anywhere but it makes sense. In four years they hope to draw more friendly lines. This seems to be our best chance before 2012.
Speaking of low hanging fruit, here come the underfunded and open seats:
NY-23 McHugh $261,698 (O, actually R+0.2) Oot (not a typo)is seriously underfunded as his opponent but McHugh could be the victim of a late charge if the DCCC has money in its coffers.
NJ-7 Open, R+1. Linda Stender has a serious cash lead ($845 K) as former firsr daughter Kate Whittman ($307 K) takes on Leonard Lance ($255 K)and others in a primary. The district has already rejected another first child, Tom Keane, Jr., in a recent GOP primary duel. We lost this seat by 2.000 votes last time with the Out of Iraq Now party or some such pulling 3,000. Should win here.
MN-1 Open, R+1. Jim Ramstad is gone but Ash Madia seems to be facing a money gap against Erik Paulsen.
MN-2, Kline, R+3. This may be the sleeper of this cycle. Kline is clearly conservative. Ramstad and Bachmann’s districts will get the attention and Kline is sitting against Steve Sarvi with just $375 K in the bank. Attack everywhere and someplace will be open (see Lincoln re: New Orleans capture).
OH-15, Open, R+1. Mary Jo Kilroy came close last time and is a local official. In some ways we may have the incumbency factor here. Steve Stivers has done a great job of fund raising for the Republicans with $599,689.
VA-11, open, R+1. Feels the same as OH-15. Again, the GOP has raised cash here: $742,045.
AZ-1, open, R+2. Scandal plagued Rick Renzi leaves this seat. Ann Kirkpatrick has a 2-1 fund raising edge over “cowgirl” (not) Sydney Hay in a likely all-female faceoff.
CA-45, Bono Mack, R+3. New husband (Connie Mack of FL-14) 3,000 miles away may cause Mary Bono Mack to leave this Palm Springs district a little unattended. At $344,123 she’s one of the most poorly funded incumbents on this list.
NC-8, Robin Hates, R+3. Self-funder Robin Hayes is loaded with $987 K against Larry Kissell. No surprises this time, Larry. Got to beat his pampered butt for real.
FL-15, open, R+4. Nobody has really geared up to take Dave Weldon’s seat. Why not us?
IL-18, open, R+5. Aaron Schock is a loud mouthed kid who the GOP has annointed as a golden boy. Only he has little cash advantage (only $188 k vs. over $100 K) vs. media savvy Coleen Callahan. Save us from another one of these congressional brats. Please. We have a real good chance, here.
VA-10, Wolf, R+6. Yes he’s got $715 K but Judy Feder can raise the green stuff, too. The district is shading more blue. Is this the time?
OH-7, open, R+6. Their candidate has $51,819.
CA-44, Calvert, R+6. Give it a whirl at $222 K.
CA-46, Rohrabacher, R+6. $331 K in the bank. Less than half the national average; 40% what the average incumbent carries on this list.
IL-15, Tim Johnson, R+6. $106,759. Johnson is a) principled, b)lazy, c)one heck of a poker player d) stupid/”lucky”. Don’t know bur gee is that a tempting number to cause problems.