SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (3/24/08)

29 thoughts on “SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (3/24/08)”

1. Would you say something like:

   Likely = 75% chance
   
   Lean = 60% chance
   
   Tossup = 50% chance

   and those not on the list, say, 99% chance?

2. I’d move the south Florida trio to “lean”.  But I think some of the open seats are more volatile than you think….

   NM-01 looks like “Lean D” to me…. it’s D + 2, and, of course, was super-close last time when it had Wilson as an incumbent.  The incumbency has to be worth a LOT of votes, unless the incumbent is on the way to jail or something.  In 2004, Wilson did much better than Bush (Wilson won 54-46, Bush lost 48-51).

   OTOH, LA-06 looks like “lean R” – Bush got 59% in 2004; but the Repubs have no one running yet, which can’t be good for them

   OH-15 seems like “lean D”.  Pryce and Kilroy essentially tied in 2006. The district is 7.2% Black, so Obama will have some coattails here.  
   

3. Why do Republicans hate Boeing?  It is one of the few successful exporters we have had long term and under Republican pressure the DOD  gives the contract to a predominantly French, state-sponsored (owned?) company.  If a lot of Boeing workers live in Reichert’s district, he’s toast. French toast.

   That’s the largest facility I have ever seen.  It stretches on and on for what seems like a mile.

   Aside from that caveat, my druthers, such as they are would add NJ-5 to the list as “Likely R.”  Schulman seems to be outraising Paul Aronsohn’s 2006 pace at this point and Garrett is coming off a 55% (and sinking) re-election.

   Should Michelle Bachman (MN-6)be on this list for the Republicans.  She won pretty easily in what was supposed to be a contested race last cycle.

   Just my opinion but I could also make the same comment about CT-5 being safe for the Democrats.

   Should FL-10 be listed as “Likely R” to cover the possibility that Bill Young will retire?  I know, based on the charts, that only scandal driven Rs retired last cycle after March 17 but …

   PA-11 at this point should be off the list.  Kanjorski is loaded with cash and his opponent literally has no money.  Of course it can rapidly change.

   Anybody want to move VA-11 from tossup to Lean D?

   What happens if Bill Jefferson is our nominee in LA-2?  He’s indicted, has no money ($250 K debt vs. 29 K cash). no fund raising possibilities.  I don’t believe these are jungle primaries any more so there is at least some chance that the tainted Jefferson would go 1-on-1 with a Republican.  Likely D?

4. NY-25 printed in blue, but that’s Rep. Walsh’s district, isn’t it? But I agree that it’s leaning Dem.
   
   I dont think AK-AL is leaning Dem though. We should be more cautious, the great polls notwithstanding.
   
   And you should add VA-05 as likely Rep, Tom Perriello is a great candidate against that awful Goode.

5. 1. I would put AL-02 as Lean Republican, because we have the mayor of Montgomery running as a Democrat, and internals have him beating both Republican challengers for the open seat.  If you change the poll to include higher black turnout for Obama, he breaks the 50% mark.  

   2. I would move Kagan from Lean Dem to Likely Dem because his opponent isn’t raising as much as last time, he’s an incumbent instead of a challenger, and he can always self fund a little if he felt finances were an issue.  

   3. I would move Young over to toss-up.  He could still lose in the primary to the LT Governor.  

6. I would make a case to put VA-05 on the chart, where Virgil Goode will be challenged by international peace-keeper Tom Perriello. Virgil Goode held the seat as a Dem, and has not had a competitive election since 1996 when he switched parties . At this point in the last campaign, Democrat Al Weed had no staff and $13000. This election, Tom Periello has 8 staff and $250,000, is campaigning INCREDIBLY hard, and many other Congressional Democrats are coming to do fundraisers with Tom.  

   The party infrastructure at the county level has also been revamped, with former Democratic County chairs who were still loyal to Goode replaced with Democrats who support Democrats. This is also a district where Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb ran right alongside their Republican challengers.

7. Great to see it color-coded. Great work overall.

   I’d like to see a column, way over on the right, labeled “Longshots” or “Under the Radar”.

   There we could put, for example, TX-10, where the netroots favorite lost the primary. The winner used to have his own TV show on Faux (“Texas Justice”).  Larry Joe Doherty is a lawyer apparently with access to considerable funds. And he comes from the Houston end of this gerrymandered district that stretches from H-town suburbs to Austin. The Austin end tends to be more techy and liberal, while the other end, with slightly more population, has been DeLay-type nutty Repubs. So we have a candidate who is a minor celebrity, comfortable on camera, and can raise the funds. His geography and image (a gavel-wielding judge — on TV, if not in real life) may give permission to those H-town suburbanites to vote Democratic for the first time in a long time, while consoling themselves that he’s “not like those other Democrats.” Actually, Doherty’s stand on the issues like Iraq and health care is pretty damn progressive, so we’ll see how that plays in a deep Recession during a lost War of Occupation. Anyways, if we have a shot anywhere in Texas this time around, this is it. But despite Bush’s lower approval ratings even in Texas, it’s still a longshot at this point. Oh yeah, Doherty is running against the son-in-law of the head of Clear Channel Communications, the radio semi-monopoly that’s part of the VRWC.

   Let me mention TX-04, where Glenn Melancon is again bravely challenging octogenarian Ralph Hall, one of the many Repubs tainted by association with Jack Abramoff. Looks like some of Abramoff’s revelations are being slow-walked until after the election, or until never, but if something breaks on that story, this one could erupt. Until then, the numbers are grim; in ’06 Melanon ran all of 4 points ahead of Kerry’s share and got fully 33% of the vote.

   There’s others I’d like to see at least up on the board. Our man against Virgil Goode could go there, not to hurt the feelings of anyone who’d rank him higher. But putting Tom Perriello in a Longshot column would at least not ignore him. (Hey, BENAWU or somebody, why is Perriello listed 5th among possible challengers on the Race Tracker Wiki? A little housekeeping and updating here please! Thank.)

   What’s up in IN-03, the Fort Wayne district? A city councilman got 46% last time, after Kerry got a dismal 32%. This time we have Michael Montagano, a young lawyer and former staffer to a Dem Gov and a Dem Congressman? (His website has great photos, and an engaging  campaign-trail blog by his wife.)

   How about KY-04, where the DCCC spent a zillion last time and we got creamed? This time we have Michael Kelley, a self-described “country doctor” who graduated from Harvard magna cum laude. He’s young, attractive, likewise the wife and four kids, and he has some access to funds. Is this a total waste of his time, or does Kelley have a shot in a state trending Democratic, after Lucas in a comeback attempt barely held his successor, the incumbent, to 52%. (Good website, with good photos.)

   Or out in Nebraska. We seemed to have a chance last time in NE-01 and Maxine Moul did six points better than Kerry in ’04 while losing. (Uh oh, no website up for Max Yashirin, our candidate, a Marine Corps vet who fought in Iraq.)  In NE-02, the Omaha district, Jim Esch broke 45% and wants a re-match. First he has to take a May 13 primary over Richard Carter, an Air Force pilot who flew in Afghanistan and Iraq? (Esch has only a fragment “Full website coming soon” with a donation page.) I saw a map giving these two districts to Obama, based on someone’s polling.

   CQ Politics doesn’t currently rate any of Nebraska’s three U.S. House districts as competitive, though two of them are worth watching for signs of increased competitiveness.

   Maybe that’s the column head we need: “Worth Watching” for races like these where we hold our breath and pray, “Oh please, please.” You know, in ’06 we got a prayer or two like that answered.

8. I’d say Capito in WV-02 is lean R instead of likely R. The margin she won by in 2006 had more to do with Callaghan. He had closed to within 4 points before running out of money and she ran scared at the end, buying a landslide. But the DCCC and others ::cough:: think Capito is vulnerable.

9. MN-02.  Our guy is Steve Sarvi, Iraq war vet (wow, we have two excellent Iraq war vets running in MN), former mayor of Watertown (small town, not sure but an educated guess would pen it at being quite Republican.)   He’s been campaigning like a mad-man and is the type of guy who would resonate in this CD (R+3 I believe).  Also, we gained a number state house and senate seats here and as I mentioned above with Bachmann, Obama coattails.

   This isn’t a likely R yet but it is one to watch.  A while back, articles described MN as possibly being the next MA, a fairly populated state with a full Dem delegation to Congress.  It’s of course a longshot but we really do have a full slate of excellent candidates.  

   I do think MN-02 has a better chance than MN-06 though, Bachmann is a nut job but Sarvi is someone I would consider driving 40 minutes to intern/volunteer for on a regular basis.

10. I’d keep your eye on it and perhaps move it to toss up … none other than Bob Novak called Reichert the most endangered GOP house incumbent in America …  

11. James, I like your take on this list because it really gives us something to work towards as we continue onto November.  You can call me pessimistic but I prefer to be cautiously optimistic.  Besides, a couple of “Macacas” and we got ourselves a couple more leans.

    While I generally agree with most of your rankings, here are a couple of my disagreements:

    1) AK-AL- I think this should be a toss-up until we are sure that Don Young wins the primary.  Also, the fact that this is a a ruby red state gives the incumbent an edge even if the incumbent is Don Young.

    2) CA-04- With Doolittle retiring, I think Brown has quite a steep hill to climb.  Secondly, this district has a heavy Republican lean.  Until Brown gains ground, I would downgrade that for now.

    3) NC-08- Since Kissell is running again and considering how he faired without much establishment support, I would classify this one as a Toss-up.  He has name recognition and with the DCCC helping fund his race, I think all the external factors push this one to a Toss-up.

    Keep up the great work!

12. We have good candidates and they don’t.

13. I’d move probably two or three GOP incumbents into the Toss-Ups category. If I had to commit, I’d start with Walberg and Reichert, and maybe Kirk or Shays (although Shays seems remarkably resilient). I think it’s fine to be conservative about not overusing the “Toss-Ups” category until we get closer to the general election, though.

    I’d also second the call for another category of “Bubbling Under” or “Races to Watch” or something similar, for races where the numbers aren’t good but we have a seemingly strong candidate who may catch fire (like Perriello in VA-05) or scandal might rear its head (Jerry Lewis, Gary Miller), or where the numbers seem pretty favorable for us (and where the DCCC is paying attention) but we’re still waiting for a good candidate to appear (like NY-03 and IA-04) or where retirement still seems possible (Bill Young, or McHugh).

14. I guess Ky 01 didn’t even make a blip on the chart. yes we have a Dem. candidate running against Ed Whitfield “no Primary” but with out funds it’s going to be hard..does the DCCC like Ed that much???
    
    http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

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