Take a look up at the banner on top of this screen, that big green bar. See the name in the title there? Remember that? Well, believe it or not, this site once focused entirely on the presidential swing states. (It was only after the 2004 election that we branched out to other races.)
So, with the next presidential election a mere 677 days away – ie, sooner than your local Best Buy will have Nintendo’s Wii back in stock – I thought we might take a look at the swing states in play for 2008. Now, as you know, I’m a big believer in the fifty-state strategy, but as you also know, these things take time. As much as I’d like to believe we’ll see an expanded playing field in the next presidential race, I think we all realize that Howard Dean’s plan is the work of many years.
Therefore, I’d like to start with a similar approach to the one I took three years ago, one which served us well, I think. Back then, I considered as a swing state any state where the vote margin between both sides was ±10%. (Specifically, where the margin between (Gore + Nader) – (Bush + Buchanan) was ±10%.) This time, it’s a little simpler because there were no meaningful third-party candidates in 2004, so I’m just going to look at the Kerry – Bush vote.
In any event, this is the list I wound up with, using the numbers found on Dave Leip’s site:
| State | EVs | Bush | Kerry | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 55 | 44.36% | 54.31% | 9.95% |
| Maine | 4 | 44.58% | 53.57% | 8.99% |
| Hawaii | 4 | 45.26% | 54.01% | 8.75% |
| Delaware | 3 | 45.75% | 53.35% | 7.60% |
| Washington | 11 | 45.64% | 52.82% | 7.18% |
| New Jersey | 15 | 46.24% | 52.92% | 6.68% |
| Oregon | 7 | 47.19% | 51.35% | 4.16% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 47.61% | 51.09% | 3.48% |
| Michigan | 17 | 47.81% | 51.23% | 3.42% |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 48.42% | 50.92% | 2.50% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 48.87% | 50.24% | 1.37% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 49.32% | 49.70% | 0.38% |
| Iowa | 7 | 49.90% | 49.23% | -0.67% |
| New Mexico | 5 | 49.84% | 49.05% | -0.79% |
| Ohio | 20 | 50.81% | 48.71% | -2.10% |
| Nevada | 5 | 50.47% | 47.88% | -2.59% |
| Colorado | 9 | 51.69% | 47.02% | -4.67% |
| Florida | 27 | 52.10% | 47.09% | -5.01% |
| Missouri | 11 | 53.30% | 46.10% | -7.20% |
| Virginia | 13 | 53.68% | 45.48% | -8.20% |
| Arkansas | 6 | 54.31% | 44.55% | -9.76% |
Twenty-one states in total: twelve blue and nine red. Four states are new to this list (CA, DE, HI, NJ) and five states were dropped from the previous list (AZ, LA, NC, TN & WV – though NC was only included later, when Edwards was added to the ticket).
Obviously, quite a few of these seem pretty implausible candidates for switching – certainly anything from NJ to CA would be a huge shock. Perhaps less so with the bottom three red states on the list, given our recent electoral successes in each – but of course, presidential politics is a whole ‘nother ballgame, and we often do well in state and local races in red states while getting crushed on the national level.
So the playing field is, in all likelihood, quite a bit narrower than this list would imply. It’s also conceivable that some of the states which are no longer on the list could come into play (in particular, AZ). (By the way, the next closest blue states outside this list IL, CT and MD – if they flip, I’m crunching down on my netroots-issued cyanide capsule.)
Anyhow, which states do you think are most likely to flip – and why? And if your analysis hinges on a particular candidate (or type of candidate) getting nominated for pres or VP, please detail that as well.
I am pretty sure that Iowa will vote Democratic in 2008. Every Democrat but Hillary leads McCain there in 2008.
I hope this is not true, but either McCain or Romney might be able to take a decent shot at Michigan. McCain is popular here – he won the primary back in the ’00 cycle. And Romney is the son of former Governor Romney, a well-regarded moderate Republican. Although maybe it’s ancient enough history that his name is no longer good.
I think that of any Democratic state in 2004, New Hampshire would be one to look at to possibly flip, but I’m really only going to go by that if the Republicans go with McCain. I know that NH is going very blue at the state level and with the US Representatives, but McCain still got 49 percent of the vote in the 2000 primary [and later went for Bush the first time around], and if he’s the nominee I wouldn’t be surprised if he flips the state.
I didn’t realize until now that Wisconsin was that close in 2004, but I don’t really know how “in play” it is.
I also think that it’s very possible that any of the states from Iowa to Colorado [and maybe Florida] on the list could flip regardless of the Democratic candidate.
If McCain’s the Republican nominee I think Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada are off the board. Richardson on the ticket in some way could counteract that, though.
Iowa will flip. I’d say Ohio, too, based on 2006 results. Florida can flip with the right candidate. Virginia, as well.
I still cling to some hope that my district can go blue, with the right candidate (Nebraska splits up its EVs by Congressional district). I imagine if that happens, we will be well on our way to an electoral landslide anyway, though.
I am no expert at numbers, but I know that Kerry sucked as a candidate and probably lost a few states by a bigger margin than he should have.
What if we took the 2006 races and figured out how Dems did in those states? Would that show the trends better and where there are potential Democratic voters?
Minnesota has 10 EVs – 8 Congresscritters + 2 Senators = 10.
I too am a big supporter of the 50-state strategy both at the national and local level – however, any discussion of presidential strategy needs to start with three states – Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. If we flip any one of them, we win. If we put up strong field operations in all three, we force the RNC and whoever their candidate is to spend massive resources holding them, making places like Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona easier to pick off. There’s more of an incentive for the GOP to hold those big states than there is a disincentive for us to go after them, even if the spread is slightly wider, as it is in Florida – simply put, if everything stays the same, {GOP candidate} wins.
I could have organized these thoughts a bit better, but there they are. Ohio, Florida, Virginia. Ohio, Florida, Virginia. Repeat after me.
Kerry may not have been the greatest candidate, but he did throw everything but the kitchen sink into Ohio and still couldn’t take it. And Florida just elected a new GOP governor in a Dem year, hell Mark Foley almost won reelction there. So can we give up on these two? Let’s focus on states that are moving in our direction – Virginia is looking very promising lately. NH continues to trend democratic,and we need to hold on to it. Colorado, N.M., and Nevada are ripe pick-up opportunities and should get a lot of love from us. And Wisconsin and Iowa are very much up for grabs. Let’s not spend another election trying to woo the stubborn voters of Ohio.
I’m convinced that a GOP nomination of Giuliani (and maybe even McCain) would trigger a Gary Bauer-esque third-party challenge from the right capable of pulling in double digits in the Deep South. I cannot see the Rapture-wielding evangelicals voting for Rudy under any circumstances. Imagine the potential fallout from such a scenario…..such as a divided conservative electorate helping to turn Mississippi and Alabama blue with a 40% plurality accrued almost exclusively from black voters. It’s not inconceivable…and it’s one of the reasons I’m more worried about Romney or any of the more conservatie second and third-tier candidates than I am of McCain or Giuliani.
I think Edwards would be capable of winning West Virginia and maybe even Kentucky.
would also win Virginia and Ohio.
Matrix of all the Democratic & Gop Candidates to do this project honor. I come up with a completely different game plan/projections based on running any of our candidates let alone those on the gopee side.
But, I certainly think we have the potential to re-take Ohio, Florida and depending on the candidate mix: VA,NC,NM,CO,NV & AZ and be able to hold all those jurisdictions won by Kerry.
….was mostly the product of black churches in Detroit inviting their parishioners to take advantage of Michigan’s open primary as vote for McCain as a way of embarrassing then-Governor John Engler, who was endorsing Bush. I highly doubt McCain’s popularity in Michigan will hold up eight years later, particularly when his record on labor issues (one of the worst in the entire Senate) is exposed. On the other hand, if the Dems are foolish enough to nominate Hillary, anything is possible in a state like Michigan.
The only person I can see taking VA is John Edwards. Although there are a lot of disengaged black adults who might turn out for Obama, but I don’t think that could flip the state.
I’m sure it’s still relevant.
Any winning Democratic strategy must be prepared to win without Florida. FL is increasingly GOP, and we can expect the Crist administration to keep Jeb Bush’s covert electoral manipulation program alive and well. Sure, we won seats there in a Democratic year, but that’s only because of Foley and Katherine Harris. Take them off the ballot and things will revert to GOP and won’t flip back. I think one of Kerry’s biggest mistakes, other than running for president in the first place, was in spending too much time in Florida over the rest of the country. This time, FL should be off the table entirely, replaced by a strong offense in VA, CO, OH, MN, WI, MI, MO, and maybe PA. Yes, I say offense, because the best defense is a good offense, and too many Democrats have lost races lately because they expected the GOP to be decent and ethical. Even though the national climate will probably still favor the Democrats in 2008, we can’t afford to take anything for granted.
In detail:
The Democrats shouldn’t seriously worry about losing Oregon. The liberal/moderate half of the state is growing much faster than the crazy fundamentalist half, and most of the new arrivals here are in the same political orbit. Plus, the war is very unpopular here. Kerry won the state by a way larger margin than Gore, even though Gore was a better candidate, and that trend will probably continue in the future. I’d buy a few ads here, but it’s mostly safe. The presidential might also be affected by the Smith senate race – if enough Oregonians see Smith for the lying, manipulative arch-conservative bastard that he really is, he’ll make the blue margin for president even larger, depending on the candidate.
NH is turning so blue in part because they’ve had so many illegal, Republican-orchestrated telemarketing scandals, and NH voters are more libertarian and more informed than most. When they realized that Craig Benson was elected governor only because of the 2002 phone jamming scandal, they resented it horribly, and gave him a huge electoral defeat in 2004 while simultaneously being the only state to switch presidential columns away from Bush. Benson’s replacement, John Lynch, is now the most popular governor in NH state history. The GOP didn’t see the writing on the wall and launched another illegal telemarketing campaign on the behalf of Charlie Bass in 2006, which backfired, got huge press coverage for such a small state, and resulted in a hail of pissed-off Granite Staters throwing out not just Bass but the decades-old Republican establishment as well. Because the GOP is run by people who never learn from their mistakes, expect the same in 2008 – the Democrats will win NH in the presidential, and NH voters will do to Sununu what they did to Benson – send him packing.
WI might be a GOP pickup, depending on the candidates. MN is also up in the air, especially with the ’08 GOP convention being held there. The big factor in MN is going to be Coleman’s Senate race, and it’s way too early to tell on that one. PA is probably safe Dem, given all of the Congressional pickups this cycle and Kerry’s increased ’04 margin over Gore, but shouldn’t be taken for granted.
IA and OH will probably go blue. OH only went red in ’04 because Ken Blackwell and the GOP machine made a huge effort to pull every dirty trick in the book, and Kerry wasn’t prepared for it and gave up too soon even though he promised otherwise. Blackwell is no longer Secretary of State, nor is Taft governor, and the Democrats replacing them so far seem to have a good agenda for cleaning up the mess. Bush’s disapproval rating in OH is very high, and there will probably be a lot more Republican Congressional defeats there in the future now that Blackwell isn’t there to muddy the waters. IA voted for Gore in 2000, only went for Bush in ’04 due to voting machine glitches that weren’t properly investigated, and just threw out Jim Leach after 30 years in Congress. They’re pretty much 50-50 politically and should never be counted out, but they’re more likely to lean D at this point.
The red state that’s been red since 2000 that I most see flipping is MO, which has the highest Bush disapproval rating of any red state according to SurveyUSA, and which just sent Republican Senator Talent packing in 2006. Republican Gov. Blunt is on the ticket in ’08, and he’s very unpopular. I think MO is a lot more in play this time than it’s been since 1996, when Clinton won the state. VA and CO are the other flip possibilities. I’d aggressively campaign in Virginia and wouldn’t rule out Colorado, either, especially if Dean holds the convention in Denver. I might not rule out NC, either – they’re red, but they’ve also suffered a lot because of various Republican-sponsored free trade agreements (CAFTA et. al.), and might be more receptive to a Democrat now than they’ve been for a while. NM could go either way – lots more GOP-alienated Latinos voting for Democrats, but still a 50-50 state overall.
LA really should be off the table. It’s become one of the most Republican states in the country now, and will be even more so next year after Blanco loses. AZ, TN, and WV could flip with the right Democrat on the ticket (they all went for Clinton in ’96), but not otherwise.
Hillary can’t win in Arkansas. She effectively severed her ties with the state when she moved to New York to run for Senate. Bill is still pretty popular down there, but not Hillary. From what I’ve heard/read, she’s been considered a turncoat ever since she ran for Senate in NY. She can’t expect to get honest support from anyone who isn’t part of the DLC establishment – real people on both sides of the political spectrum hate her, and there’s no way she carries any state that’s mostly rural. The best Dem candidates are Gore and Obama, in some order. The best GOP candidate (for them) is Huckabee or McCain. Romney will do better in the primaries than anyone expects, but can’t win the nomination because of his baggage, and will lose in the general election if he does. Guiliani can’t win any primaries except his own. All of the other candidates on either side are, at this point, still a joke.
I’d go on, but this comment is as long as a post now.
Florida–doubtful for Dems, I wouldn’t waste too much time there
Minnesota–still Democratic, as convention sites have no impact on the race in their host states
Ohio–in play, but it will not be easy despite 2006. Remember, Dems picked up only Ney’s seat in the congressional elections.
Nevada–this will be difficult as the state of the Democratic party there isn’t too strong
Wisconsin–close state, must hold
Iowa–probably looking better for Democrats now
New Mexico–gotta do better there
Virginia–edging closer to swing state status, but not quite there yet
Colorado–definitely playable.
So I think the strategy for 2008 is to hold all the blue states plus pick up IA, NM, OH and CO.
….the Democrats’ good fortune in Florida was something of a fluke that began and ended in 2000. The only thing that could put Florida on the table is if the GOP nominee resurrects the plan to privatize Social Security.
If you look at the states that are +/- 5% points, you’ll see that most of them are Midwest or Western states. It appears to me that this will be the key to victory for either side. Unlike in 2000 or 2004, Dems can lose the South and still have a reasonable chance of winning the presidency. I’d like to see a Dem ticket that will have some appeal to these two regions. My favorite is Obama/Richardson, but Obama/Feingold or Obama/Vilsack might work too. My only concern about Hillary is her appeal to this region – even though she is originally from the Midwest.
I think it’s too hard to figure which states are likely to switch over on either side, because there are too many matchup scenarios. The chances of New Mexico switching is highly variable depending on the candidates running. I can see appeal for McCain, but if Richardson is VP candidate that would probably change the equation.
The Dems must nominate a candidate that will appeal to the key Midwest states – Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin – if they are to have any shot.
I am a Democrat from Texas and I just wanted to thank you for the early write off. You just don’t know how much time you saved me. Possibly thousands of hours.
And, heh, it worked so well the last time, why not use it again?
Well, at least we have given the down ticket candidates some notice so they know not to expect the help the exposure a good national campaign of a Presidential candidate will give them.
I think he might be a good Secretary of State though if he would run with Edwards. There was a bit of a hullabah over his 2004 run and a Shelton skirmish from within the Edwards campaign that had Wes Clark Jr. saying some pretty unflattering things about Edwards. If the father and son were in agreement then the rift might not be easily healed.
I would love to see Clark somewhere in the next admin though. He is an incredible individual.
is an interesting case. I don’t think it goes Dem now, but it may become competitive very soon as Republicans lose the hispanic vote.
Glad I got my Wii on launch day.
Thank you Gamestop pre-orders!
I know McCain would win Arizona should he get the nomination, however, with the growing Hispanic population that voted overwhemingly Democratic in the Midterms this past year New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada could be solidified as blue states. This could be especially important because when the next census rolls around the South will pick up a good amount of Electoral votes…but so will the West. The West, in my opinion, is the future of the Democratic Party
I’m from New Hampshire, and I’m relatively certain my state will stay blue in 2008. Why, you ask?
-A bad Republican governor from 2003-2005 was defeated after one term, the first time that happened in over 70 years.
-The Democratic Governor, John Lynch (90th Governor of NH), was elected in 2004, the year New Hampshire was the only 2000 red state to turn blue.
-In 2006, Governor Lynch won re-election with the largest margin of victory in the history of the first state to declare independence.
-Also in the 2006 election, Democrats went from an 8-16 minority in the state Senate to a 14-10 majority, from a 151-249 minority in the state House to a 239-161 majority, from a 1-4 minority in the Executive Council to a 3-2 majority, plus the re-elected Governor, making this the first time in over 130 years that Democrats have had one-party rule in New Hampshire.
-The Republican incumbents in both NH US House seats were defeated by Democrats with far less money (in the 1st district, with 1/11 the cash of the incumbent). Neither Senate seat was up this year, but remember the 2002 Phone Jamming Scandal here? The Senator elected as a result is up in 2008, people have served time, money has exchanged hands between the Parties in settlement, and considering the 3% margin, that could tip the scales.
Hmm, I should post this back at my own site as well…