Senate Republicans
1. Virginia***
Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore
Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000
Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000
(Likely Democratic Pick-up)
2. New Mexico***
Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce
Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000
Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
3. New Hampshire
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu
Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000
Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
4. Colorado***
Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer
Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000
Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
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5. Alaska
Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens
Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000
Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000
(Toss Up)
6. Minnesota
Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman
Total Raised — $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000
Cash On Hand – $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000
(Toss Up)
7. Oregon
State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith
Total Raised — $1,371,000v. $4,274,000
Cash On Hand — $474,000 v. $5,100,000
(Toss Up)
8. Maine
Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins
Total Raised — $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000
Cash On Hand – $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000
(Toss Up)
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9. North Carolina
State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole
Total Raised — $562,000 v. $4,855,000
Cash On Hand – $515,000 v. $2,664,000
(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)
10. Mississippi-B***
Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker
Total Raised — $448,000 v. $3,000,000
Cash On Hand – $337,000 v. $2,750,000
(Lean Republican Retention)
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11. Oklahoma
State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe
Total Raised — $970,000 v. $3,168,000
Cash On Hand – $597,000 v. $2,221,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
12. Idaho***
Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch
Total Raised — $555,000 v. $1,129,000
Cash On Hand – $253,000 v. $935,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
———————————————————————
13. Georgia
State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss
Total Raised — $346,000 v. $4,407,000
Cash On Hand – $333,000 v. $3,637,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
14. Kansas
Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts
Total Raised — $289,000 v. $3,205,323
Cash On Hand – $286,000 v. $2,986,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
15. Nebraska***
Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns
Total Raised — $274,000 v. $2,018,000
Cash On Hand – $281,000 v. $1,330,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
16. Kentucky
Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell
Total Raised — $808,000 v. $7,908,000
Cash On Hand – $666,000 v. $7,741,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
Senate Democrats
1. Louisiana
Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy
Total Raised — $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000
Cash On Hand – $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000
(Likely Democratic Retention)
Notes:
– *** = Open Seat
– I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races
– I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000
– North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08
– DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers
– The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in.
– I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides. Simple as that.
Democratic Offensive
Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO
Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME
Tier 3 = NC, MS
Tier 4 = OK, ID
Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY
Republican Offensive
Tier 1 = LA
Overview
– 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA)
– Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps
– Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems
– Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R
– Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate
– Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41R
Fundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08)
DSCC v. NRSC
Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000
Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000
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Mostly.
(In order of likelihood of moving into next tier)
Likely D = VA
Lean D = NM, NH, CO
Lean R = MN, AK, OR
Likely R = NC, ME, MS, OK, KY, TX, KS, ID, NE, GA
Prediction = 5-7 seat D gain
so the politico said, if true might be the first month they beat us, though we beat them by about 5 mil for the quarter… wish i could search the link but i got someone at the door, yikes…
Where’s Texas?
Is there a snowball’s chance in heaven that we’ll be able to pick up Maine if/when Collins is unseated?
Nebraska is an open seat (Chuck Hagel).
Hmmm. Well, character assassination may be on the agenda, but Maineiacs DO like Collins. I expect that unless something breaks, DSCC will be loathe to do large dumps for such a long shot. Allen is already quite well known even out of his district, but the numbers have hardly changed in a year. I suspect that only a significant uptick in Iraq would produce much movement in ME.
some. I don’t think you’ll see the Lincoln Chaffee effect this year. Gordon Smith and Susan Collins have been smart to move to the middle enough to make swing voters happy.
I think we’ll be surprised to see how low the Red state incumbents numbers stay, like Dole in NC and Inhofe in OK (like Talent in MO and Burns in MT in 2006).