SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (5/06/08)

49 thoughts on “SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (5/06/08)”

1. the florida races are in the wrong column(you have them likely r); i would move them ALL to lean r; the candidate recruitment this cycle on our side has been outstanding; ALL of those districts are winnable(key word being winnable) and our candidates have really raised “REAL” money early; keller has never been popular and he is known as sort of a flake; suzanne kosmas will give tom feeney his first real race; BOTH diaz-balart brothers will be tested(my opinion is that older brother lincoln loses while younger brother mario might lose in one of the closest races this cycle);annette taddeo hopefully will get emily’s list money(that takes her into the competitive stage immediately), like kosmas has already received; i truly beleive the miami/dade republicans(both diaz-balarts and ros-lehtinen) are beatable for the first time; money will play a key BUT south florida turnout in this election will break all records and the democratic ticket will be strong top to bottom

2. even though he remains the single WORST repuke of the entire florida delegation, i think beating vern buchanan will be our hardest task(i would still fight for this seat though because jennings actually won this race by about 12,000 votes last cycle)

3. Trauner will probably win this time around. An open race and his fundrasing is doing fine. Maybe even the DCCC will get involved this time…

4. The NRCC is short of money, especially after the special elections. John McCain, meanwhile, is not fundraising well, so the RNC will have to bail him out heavily. Add in the political background, the generic congressional ballot heavily favouring Democrats and a more or less tied presidential race even with a nasty primary on our side, and it’s fair to say that in many of the races you’ve marked as ‘likely D’ the NRCC will not seriously compete.

   With that in mind, I’d suggest considering removing the following races:

   CT-02 – Courtney has more than a 10-1 CoH advantage and the district is D+8. His main challenger doesn’t look bad – he has a military background, is prepared to talk about some kind of Iraq withdrawal and his spiel on taxes, although utterly misleading, may prove attractive to some. But this is a presidential year in a Democratic state. Losing 55-45 seems like Sullivan’s best case scenario.

   NC-11 – Heath Shuler can hardly be outflanked on the right – he’s about as appalling as Bush Dogs get. He has a large CoH and is by all accounts quite popular in the district. Spencer Campbell looks like the GOP frontrunner and there’s little to show that he’s anything but dull boilerplate Republican. Shuler’s probably not vulnerable to that – he almost is that.

   NH-02 – D+3 and Hodes appears to fit well with the district. Charlie Bass doesn’t appear to be making a go of it again, and the frontrunner appears to be Bob Clegg, who as a state senator may have roots in the district, but doesn’t provide an issues page on his website, suggesting he’s either a wacko or sloppy. Moreover, he’s linked to an article he wrote supporting FairTax. NH may have a libertarian reputation, but Huckabee didn’t do well pushing that and I don’t think most independents or Dems are quite crazy enough to be attracted by it.

   Republican efforts in NH will be concentrated on Shea-Porter and on saving Sununu. Lynch at the top of the ticket will get enough votes out for us to compensate for McCain’s strength and the Republicans just don’t have enough money for this one.

   NY-19 – the district is only R+1 and if that Orleans album cover didn’t sink Hall, very little will. Republicans will be on defence in New York and concentrating on keeping the state senate and their remaining House seats. I also seem to remember reading that they’ve had candidate problems here.

   NY-24 – much the same as for NY-19. Also, it doesn’t look like anyone has actually filed to run against Arcuri.

   OH-18 – it’s a pretty Republican district, but recruitment efforts here seem to have been disappointing, and Space has been relatively conservative, so I doubt this is a target.

   PA-11 – D+5 and Lou Barletta is massively over-rated. Still, if the NRCC wants to disagree and invest here, I’m sure Patrick Murphy and co. will appreciate facing poorer challengers.

5. A major effort was made, mostly successful, to stockpile cash for the freshmen Dems.  As a result, some of the races might be switched to “Races to Watch” from Likely D.

   IL-8 Bean  She has $1,350,000 and Greenberg is sitting on 5 K.  If he spends enough to make this even vaguely competitive, the Millionaires Amendment is triggered.  So, at worst, it’s 1,350 to $350.  At worst.  This should be off to Races to Watch unless something happens.

   NY-24 Arcuri Michael Arcuri has done a pretty poor fund-raising job (591 K coh) but he won pretty easily and has no opponent as of yet.  Off the board, I think, till we see what they got.

   NC-11  Shuler has 736 K; his opponent has 41 K.  Make them show something.  If there is a money race or a poll showing competitiveness, cool.  This is clearly a seat the Republicans intend to contest.  Whether they pull that off is still in doubt.

   IN-2  Donnelly  855-155  If one of the Indiana 3 is safe, my feeling says this is it.  

   CT-5  Murphy.  He has a very comfortable 1540-420 cash on hand lead.  I think CT-4 will drain the Republican cash in the state and CT-5 seems safer than 2 so should one of the seats be off the board?

   Current events comments:

   With Daskas out shouldn’t Porter be upgraded a category in NV-3?

   Doesn’t Fossella’s DUI and likely jail time (5 days) downgrade him a category in NY-13?

   Toss-up to Lean D: Stender has a cash edge (845) over either Kate Whitman (307) or Leonard Lance (255) that should grow.  If they get nasty, we could benefit.

   NY-25: can they find a candidate?  Well the GOPers do have two plus months.  This has all the marks of a throwaway at this point as the GOPers opt to protect 29 and 26 and let 25 float away.  Sandy Treadwell’s money would have come in awful handy here.  Instead he’s down 2-1.  

6. VA-05

   Tom Periello (D) is running a brilliant campaign, has raised great money, and is focusing his organizing on the southern part of the district, which no Dem before him has done.

   His opponent, Virgil Goode, used to be a Dem, but left the party in the 90s. Despite the fact that he votes with the Republicans on everything, many county chairs were still loyal to Goode.

   I haven’t seen polling yet, but Perellio signs and stickers have been all over the district since January, and I”m looking forward to watching this race.

   Also, the fact that you list OR-05 as a tossup has me worried about it! Should we be?

   peace,
   
   faithfull

7. Republicans failure was complete in recruiting for that district.  Republicans are running a candidate with no political experience who couldn’t even win when he ran in the 1994 republican landslide year.  Parker will probably win by double-digits.  This is Lean D, maybe even likely D.

8. should be Tiahrt. (Betts is the D challenger.)

9. those resent polls.

   1. I would move all of the Florida races except for FL-15 and FL-18 to Lean Rep instead of Likely Rep at this point.  

      However I’d also move FL-16 from Lean Dem to Tossup.  That race was won on a fluke and in a region with little history of electing Dems to anything.  A lot will depend on who the Repubs nominate, they have a big field, but at this point it’s about 50/50 whether we hold this seat.

   2. Until some polling comes out of Florida, the challangers face an uphill battle. I agree that cautiousness is the best strategy. At the very least, it keeps people from getting too relaxed, or convinsed its a sure thing.

10. I think you are being too optimistic regarding this race.   Recent NH pollling has Shea-Porter trailing former Congressman Jed Bradley by 5-6 points which is incredibly alarming for an incumbent this far out from election day.

    So I would put Shea-Porter in the toss-up category rather than leans D simply because she is the incumbent.

11. Given Vito’s DUI difficulties sliding this seat to Leans R might be prudent as well.  

    Not sure the import or veracity of the claim yet but either MSNBC (I think) or CNN reported who Vito called to pick him up from the drunk tank hints at a possible bimbo eruption.  His Chief of Staff lived closer to the jail than the lady who actually did pick him up.  We shall see if this is actually important or much ado about nothing.  But a mandatory 5 days in jail will not impress Fosella’s constituents regardless.

    1. I’d hold off until you see another, and even then, Bradley is raising less than in 2006, and Porter is raising more.  Doesn’t make sense that she’d be worse off because of this.  

    2. i think with the way this cycle is playing out, moving this race to toss up is premature

12. Yes, I’ve said this one before, but I think TX-32 is not much harder to pull off than TX-10 or TX-07.  But, the reason it’s a key race to watch is that it either overlaps or neighbors lots of swingy state house seats.  Given the state of the state house and the number of new TX CDs coming after the census, this race will like indicate what is on the horizon in Texas.

    1. clint was able to get 43% with less than $50k; suzanne will wind up with maybe $1.5- 2million;plus, feeney’s bad reputation has continued to grow; my feelings are that suzanne MUST organize well in seminole county; i think she will blow him out in volusia but the margins in seminole have to be kept lower than in the past(this is where the $$$$ AND the grassroots organizing will play out); the republican vote in seminole is pretty much a finite number BUT there is a HUGE untapped black AND hispanic voter base in seminole(we have to organize there and get those folks registered); clint actually CARRIED volusia with no money, so i feel suzanne has a chance to run up her volusia margins and then race comes down to seminole and her cutting into feeney’s margins there

       1. i always felt weldon was given a pass(which was a mistake because many thought dr. dave was a crazy right-wing anti-abortionist kook); this cycle, the repubs have one of their few good recruiting jobs by the nrcc, in this district; posey(though repub)is not nearly as controversial as weldon was originally; having said that, some of the folks who opposed weldon in the past from our side were absolutely nuts; even though we lost higgs(and thus emily’s list funding), we have a credible candidate in this district(finally) BUT i wish we would have won this seat in ’06(taking this seat now will be uphill); considerring the legislative session that just ended may have been the worst in history, some voter backlash may help the dem nominee here(tie posey to the failed repubs in tallahassee)

    2. i believe suzanne also has a great chance of doing well in the brevard portion of this district; the brevard economy is going deeper and deeper into the tank(especially north brevard)

       1. our candidate recruitment here was terrific(like SO MANY this cycle); where the repubs once again failed miserably

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