June Senate Cattle Call

It’s been a few months since we’ve done one of these, so let’s see what we come up with this time around. You know the drill: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping.

Have at it!

85 thoughts on “June Senate Cattle Call”

  1. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska

    6. North Carolina

    7. Mississippi

    8. Maine

    9. Oregon

    10. Minnesota

    11. Kentucky

    12. Louisiana

    13. Kansas

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Nebraska

    16. Texas

    Some of these like 6-11 are dependent on receiving financial support.

    Reminder, Donna Edwards gets elected tonight.

  2. 1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    3.  New Hampshire

    4.  Colorado

    5.  Alaska

    6.  Oregon

    7.  Mississippi-B

    8.  North Carolina

    9.  Minnesota

    10. Kentucky

    11. Louisiana

    12. Maine

    13. Kansas

    14. Texas

    15. Oklahoma

    16. New Jersey

    17. Nebraska

    18. Idaho

    19. Georgia

    20. ?

  3. Likely Democrat pick up

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    Leans Democrat pick up

    3) Colorado

    4) New Hampshire

    Toss up

    5) Alaska

    6) Mississippi-B

    Leans Republican

    7) Minnesota

    8) Oregon

    9) North Carolina

    11) Maine

    12) Kansas

    13) Oklahoma

    Leans Democrat retention

    10) Louisiana

     

  4. Virginia

    New Mexico

    New Hampshire

    Colorado

    Alaska

    Minnesota

    Mississippi

    Louisiana

    North Carolina

    Oregon

    Maine

    Kentucky

    Oklahoma

    Idaho

    Nebraska

    Kansas

    Georgia

    North Carolina over Oregon was the only really fun call, and I went with it because Dole is a first termer who hasn’t established herself in the state (contra Smith), North Carolina is a big state (contra Oregon — I have a theory that small states are more apt to tolerate off-party Senators than big states), and Obama’s turnout boost in NC is straight-ticket-voting AAs, whereas in Oregon his turnout boost is in indie/greens who are going to split more of their tickets for Smith than AAs would.

    If Obama wins by a big enough margin, then we wash em both away.  Much depends on the presidential campaign.

  5. Likely D

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    Lean D

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    Tossup

    5. Alaska

    6. Oregon

    7. Minnesota

    8. Mississippi-B

    Lean R

    9. Louisiana (Dem Seat)

    10. North Carolina

    11. Maine

    12. Kentucky

    Likely R

    13. Kansas

    14. Texas

    15. Oklahoma

    16. Nebraska

    17. Idaho

    Likely Range of Net Gain: 5-9 Seats

  6. From Most Likely to get elected (top) to Least Likely (bottom):

    1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    3.  Colorado

    4.  New Hampshire

    5.  Mississippi

    6.  Alaska

    7.  Minnesota

    8.  Oregon

    9.  North Carolina

    10. Kentucky

    11. Oklahoma

    12. Georgia (Saxby’s firewall)

    The last one is a bit of a joke, but since it came from the mouth of NRSC Chair John Ensign that Georgia’s the firewall, I thought I’d obliged him.

    Hey, it’s the middle of the year, time to dream big.

  7. I just want to say I really enjoy the blog, it’s an excellent resource on federal elections no matter what your persuasion.

    DEM FAVORED

    New Jersey (D)

    Virginia (R)

    LEANS DEM

    Louisiana (D)

    New Mexico (R)

    New Hampshire (R)

    TOSSUP

    Colorado (R)

    Alaska (R)

    Minnesota (R)

    LEANS REP

    Oregon (R)

    Mississippi-S (R)

    North Carolina (R)

    REP FAVORED

    Maine (R)

    Kentucky (R)

    Texas (R)

    RACES TO WATCH

    Idaho (R)

    Kansas (R)

    Massachusetts (lol)

    The Line:

    1. Virginia/R

    2. New Mexico/R

    3. New Hampshire/R

    4. Colorado/R

    5. Alaska/R

    6. Minnesota/R

    7. Louisiana/D

    8. Oregon/R

    9. North Carolina/R

    10. Mississippi-S/R

    Poor Mary, she’s going to be on these lists all year. And she’ll probably pull it out too.

  8. Safe Democratic

    24) Louisiana

    Likely Democratic pick-up

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) Colorado

    4) New Hampshire

    5) Mississippi-B

    6) Alaska

    Leans Democrat pick-up

    7) Oregon

    Toss-up

    8) Minnesota

    9) North Carolina

    10) Kentucky

    Leans Repub

    11) Texas

    12) Maine

    13) Idaho

    14) Oklahoma

    15) Kansas

    16) Nebraska

    Likely Repub

    Georgia

    Tennessee

    South Carolina

    Mississippi-A

    Wyoming

    Alabama

    Wyoming

    I’m trying to be conservative here. Actually, I expect that most of my “Leans Repub” races will be competitive by November, more correctly Toss-ups. One or two of the “Likely Repub” races could also become competitive, or “Leans Repub” in November. Then in the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all — but not all — of the competitive contests, winning 12 to 14 seats. So I’m not entirely ruling out a Democratic win (by one of the candidates whose names I can’t even recall at this point) in Georgia, Tennessee, or South Carolina, depending on the depth of the Obama tsunami when it hits the Southern shores. Seriously. This will be a transformative election, a map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.

  9. SOLID TAKEOVER

    1.  Virginia (stays at #1 since Warner stated he’s all in)

    LIKELY TAKEOVER

    2.  New Mexico (thankfully Udall ran!)

    LEAN TAKEOVER

    3.  Colorado (open race is easier to win than incumbent)

    4.  New Hampshire (incubments are harder to beat)

    TOSS-UPS

    5.  Alaska (corruption is tough to overcome)

    6.  Mississippi-B (Musgrove w/statewide ID, but red state)

    LEAN RETENTION

    7.  Oregon (blue state, Obama coattails, Merkley win?)

    8.  North Carolina (Hagan w/Obama to make a run at it)

    9.  Louisiana (Landrieu has $$$ and seniority + Obama)

    10. Minnesota (Franken is going, going, not yet gone…)

    LIKELY RETENTION

    11. Maine (Collins still showing strong double digits)

    12. Kentucky (McConnell polls are getting our hopes us)

    13. New Jersey (Just to be fair to add another DEM seat)

    14. Nebraska (If DEMs win this seat, total blowout wave)

    15. Idaho (only because LaRocco is a great candidate)

    SOLID RETENTION

    10 Democrats

    10 Republicans

    DEMs take the Solid, Likely, & Lean takeover seats, that’s a DEM+4 there. I’ll take 1 of 2 tossup races, and 1 of 4 Lean races, making it DEM+6:

    111th Congress – US Senate

    55 Democrats (DEM+6)

    2 Independents (IND+0)

    43 Republicans (GOP-6)

    57-43 Democratic Working Majority (if Lieberman = DEM)

    On a side note…

    111th Congress – US House of Representatives

    248 Democrats (DEM+12)

    187 Republicans (GOP-12)

  10. So, why not.

    Likely Democrat:

    1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    Leans Democrat:

    3.  New Hampshire

    4.  Colorado

    5.  Louisiana

    Toss Up:

    6.  Alaska

    7.  Mississippi-B

    Leans Republican:

    8.  Oregon

    9.  Minnesota

    10. Kentucky

    11. North Carolina

    Likely Republican:

    12. Texas

    13. Nebraska

    14. Kansas, Idaho, Okalhoma

    Hell or High Water:

    Montana

    Wyoming A/B

    South Dakota

    Iowa

    Illinois

    Arkansas

    Michigan

    Tennessee

    W. Virginia

    Alabama

    Georgia

    South Carolina

    Delaware

    New Jersey

    Massechusetts

    Rhode Island

    I know, I’m more conservative than most people on this site. I base mine on polls right now. I’ve yet to see a poll that has Frankin ahead, or Merkley ahead. And I want to wait until after the primary for Alaska, just to be sure. Polls for both Alaska and Mississippi-B have had both up and down, to me, that’s toss up. I see us gaining at least 5 seats, probably more as time progresses. I just don’t see how Alaska or Mississippi are ‘leans’ when Republicans have all the advantages, not to mention, very red states. Not impossible, but still, very much toss ups.

  11. Here’s mine:

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) New Hampshire

    4) Colorado

    5) Alaska

    6) Mississippi

    7) North Carolina

    8) Minnesota

    9) Oregon

    10) Louisiana

    11) Maine

    12) Kentucky

    13) Idaho

    14) Texas

    15) Kansas

    16) Nebraska

    17) Oklahoma

  12. The most likely scenario: Big wins in Virginia and New Mexico, smaller but significant wins in Colorado and New Hampshire, nail-biters in the toss-up category. I think we’ll pick up VA, NM, CO, NH, AK and two more in the toss-up category for a 55 D – 43 R – 2 I (Sanders and Lieberman) composition in the 111th Congress.

    Likely Dem/Solid Dem

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    Lean Dem

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    Toss-Up

    5. Alaska

    6. North Carolina

    7. Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker)

    8. Oregon

    9. Minnesota

    Lean Incumbent Retention

    10. Louisiana

    11. Kentucky

    Likely Incumbent (or Incumbent Party) Retention

    12. New Jersey

    13. Maine

    14. Kansas

    15. Idaho (OPEN)

    16. Nebraska (OPEN)

    17. Oklahoma (OPEN)

    Uncompetitive:

    Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran)

    Georgia

    Wyoming-A (Mike Enzi)

    Wyoming-B (John Barrasso)

    Montana

    Iowa

    Rhode Island

    Delaware

    Massachusetts

    Arkansas

    South Dakota

    Illinois

    Michigan

    West Virginia  

  13. on the current state of the senate races from their standpoint; first of all; i think they feel like BOTH landrieu and lautenberg are completely SAFE seats this cycle and the repubs don’t have the resources to TRULY challenge them with a high probability of success;ALL other incumbent senators are SAFE and they don’t feel the republicans will try to put any REAL fight against them; with that out of the way; they have basically a two-tier approach in mind; i’m going to post the second tier first(i apologize if that is confusing); they have plans to contest ALL of these second tier seats in varying degrees(this will obviously be adjusted as their(dscc internals which are NEVER released publicly)polls indicate potential openings); the second tier are these(in no particular order of importance):GA, KN, NE, OK, TX; clearly, they think one or more of these 5 seats MAY come into play, so they don’t want to have dropped the ball in any of them; now for the first tier; their first tier consists of 11 seats in which they feel ALL are potential wins and they will fund ALL 11 accordingly WITH the caveat that they believe VA and NM(and to a lesser degree NH and CO)are already in the bag and won’t require much assistance; i think you can SAFELY say they feel confident in winning ALL 4 of these seats(don’t misread that as saying they won’t spend money on those 4 becuase they will BUT they know the repubs resources are limited and thus our spending will be adjusted as we go;for instance, the dscc believes that john ensign(chuck schumer’s repub counterpart)has ALREADY abandoned pearce in NM as a lost cause(my take on this is they felt like wilson could have put up something of a fight for that seat had she won the primary); that leaves us with the 7 REAL battleground senate seat targets; those 7 are(here again in NO particular order;but, i will list them in the order of the e-mail BUT that does NOT mean the dscc targets them as such); AK; KY; ME; MN; MS-B; NC; OR; one other observation i would like to make is this; the DSCC feels like mcconnell is CLEARLY on the ropes in kentucky and that lunsford can knock him out(i have stated before on this site that of all the GREAT candidates that schumer has recruited this cycle that lunsford is by far my LEAST favorite;however, as my friend CHADinFL says, a turd sandwich would be better than mcconnell and I AGREE with him); one last observation about idaho(where we have a terrific senate candidate);even though idaho was not mentioned in the e-mail as a target i believe that it MIGHT become one; over the weekend, at the idaho republican convention there was a REVOLT against the republican governor(butch otter) and his chosen candidate for state party chairman(who was BADLY beaten in a race that was not close);needless to say, idaho republicans are in a sorry state of mind that can be exploited, add to that the fact that there is a serious independent challenge to jim risch from the right and you have the makings of a perfect storm which MAY put larocco in the U.S. SENATE(from idaho!!!!)(i believe idaho was not mentioned in the dscc e-mail because these events in idaho are just taking place); oh well; that’s my 2 cents(sorry for the long post); i look forward to any responses;OH, AND THE CELTICS WON……………..

  14. 1.   Virginia

    2.   New Mexico

    3.   Colorado

    4.   New Hampshire

    5.   Alaska

    6.   Oregon

    7.   Louisiana

    8.   Mississippi

    9.   Minnesota

    10.  North Carolina

    11.  Maine

    12.  Kentucky

    13.  Kansas

    14.  Oklahoma  

    Overall Democratic gain of 5-8.

  15. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. Louisana

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi

    10. Maine

    11. Kentucky

    12. New Jersey

    13. North Carolina  

  16. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska

    6. Mississippi-B

    7. Minnesota

    8. North Carolina

    9. Jeff Merkley

    10. Louisiana

    11. Maine

    12. Kentucky

    13. Kansas

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Nebraska

    16. Idaho

    Idaho is almost ready to drop off the list.  I need to see the next wave of fundraising first.  Colorado is ahead of New Hampshire because Obama coattails will be stronger in Colorado, Udall is fundraising better than Shaheen, and Shaffer is significantly weaker a candidate than Sununu.  

    1. The DSCC really needs to just step-in and win that primary for him.  It probably wont result in a Senate seat but who the hell really knows what may happen this year, look at Alaska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, Maine is getting there.  If Georgia somehow gets competitive on its own, that is just ANOTHER seat the NRSC will have to defend that will not allow them to spend money elsewhere.

      Honestly, just cut a tv ad for him and that’s all.

      1. but; i think the next update WILL have idaho coming on board; where i posted upthread, i gave a detailed explanation as to why i think that will come into play(at least draw attention that grows into something real); like ALL things political, the DSCC moves deliberately(my nice way of saying that they move SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWLY)BUT i trust chuck schumer(and his crew to do the right thing); so, i say let’s see how it plays out; with the republican turmoil taking place in idaho at this time, i think we may turn out to be pleasantly surprised

  17. 1) VA

    2) NM

    3) CO

    4) NH

    5) AK

    6) OR

    7) MN

    8) ME

    9) MS (Wicker)

    10) NE

    11) NC

    12) TX

    13) KS

    14) OK

    15) ID

    16) KY

    17) GA (if Martin is our nominee)

  18. I’m not even going to get into distinctions between Likely and Lean – I’m not sure I can tell the difference these days.  But I am going to write out the names, to try to will their senatorships into existence.  So here goes:

    Tier I:

    1)  Virgina… Senator Mark Warner!

    2)  New Mexico… Senator Tom Udall!

    Tier II:

    3)  New Hampshire… Senator Jeanne Shaheen!

    4)  Colorado… Senator Mark Udall!

    5)  Alaska… Senator Mark Begich!

    6)  Oregon… Senator Jeff Merkley!

    7)  Mississippi… Senator Ronnie Musgrove!

    8)  Kentucky… Senator Bruce Lunsford (I can’t quite bring myself to put the exclamation point here, but if he can win, rock on)

    Tier III:

    9)  Minnesota… Senator Al Franken!

    10) North Carolina… Senator Kay Hagan!

    11) Texas… Senator Rick Noriega!

    12) Maine… Senator Tom Allen!

    13) Louisiana (figured I’d throw this in here somewhere; this seems about right)

    14) Kansas… Senator Jim Slattery!

    Tier IV:

    15) Idaho… Senator Larry LaRocco!

    16) Nebraska… Senator Scott Kleeb!

    17) Ohio… Senator Tim Ryan!  Because with poll numbers as good as his, he might has well get into the fourth tier already.

  19. I ranked 8 RED states–including Kansas–higher than Maine (plus others that are swing states). What do solid blue Mainers see in Susan Collins?  Whatever it is, it isn’t really there. Collins is on track to join Snowe in surviving these two consecutive Democratic wave elections. This easily could be the one seat the prevents a 60- or 61-seat majority (accounting for Lieberman).

    1. VA

    2. NM

    3. CO

    4. NH

    5. AK

    6. MN

    7. OR

    8. NC

    9. MS-B

    10. KY

    11. LA

    12. KS

    13. ME – This is ridiculous.

    14. TX

    15. NJ

    16. NE

    17. ID

    18. GA

  20. Solid Take Over

    1. Virginia  Senator Mark Warner

    2. New Mexico  Senator Tom Udall

    Likely Take Over

    3. Colorado  Senator Mark Udall

    4. New Hampshire  Senate Jeanne Sheehan

    Lean Take Over

    5. Minnesota  Senator Al Franken

    6. Alaska  Senator Mark Begich

    7. Oregon   Senator Gordon Smith

    8. North Carolina   Senator Kay Hagan

    9. Mississippi-B

    10. Maine

    Toss-Up

    11. Kentucky

    Lean Republican

    12. Texas

    13. Kansas

    14. Nebraska

    15. Georgia (with Martin, Obama, and DSCC)

    16. Oklahoma

    17. Idaho

    We’ll sweep all the way through toss-up and take 1-3 lean Republicans maybe.  So I’m gonna project like 10-14 seats.

    In the House, I bet we’ll gain like 40-50 seats.  I’m gonna love my all blue Minnesota delegation, the only Republican left in the state will be Pawlenty, and he’ll have just failed at becoming VP by an embarrassing margin.  Maybe he’ll flub some debates too and look like an idiot, thank you governorship in 2010 and gay marriage for me  ðŸ™‚  Maybe we can be the first to do it through legislation so we cant have the religious right bitch.  

    Obama will easily win with a bit over 350 electoral votes.  Oh and the countless and countless state legislative seats, that is really where legislation that affects our every day lives happens.  Not that federal doesnt but state politics affects us way more.  

    It’s kind of sad getting my huge electoral victories so early in life, it can only go downhill from here, lol.

  21. 1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    3.  Colorado

    4.  New Hampshire

    5.  Mississippi

    6.  Alaska

    7.  Oregon

    8.  Minnesota

    9.  North Carolina

    10. Kentucky

    11. Maine

    12. Kansas

    13. Texas

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Idaho

    16. Nebraska

    17. Georgia  

  22. 1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) New Hampshire

    4) Colorado

    5) Alaska

    6) Oregon

    7) Mississippi

    8) Minnesota

    9) North Carolina

    10) Louisiana

    11) Maine

    12) Kentucky

    13) Kansas

    14) Nebraska

    15) Texas

    16) Oklahoma

    17) Idaho

  23. 1)Virginia

    2)New Mexico

    3)New Hampshire

    4)Colorado

    5)Alaska

    6)North Carolina

    7)Mississippi-B

    8)Oregon

    9)Minnesota

    10)Kentucky

    11)Louisiana

    12)Maine

    13)Kansas

    14)Oklahoma

    15)Nebraska

    16)Texas

    17)Idaho

    18)Georgia

    19)New Jersey

    20)South Carolina

    8-10 seat pickup

  24. Just so I can later brag (or more likely hang my head in shame), I’ll need to put myself on record:

    1.  VA

    2.  NM

    3.  NH

    4.  CO

    5.  LA

    6.  AK

    7.  MN

    8.  MS-B

    9.  OR

    10. ME

    11. NC

    12. NJ

    13. KS

    14. NE

    15. TX

    16. ID

    17. SD

    18. GA

    19. OK

    20. AL

    21. TN

  25. Most likely to flip

    Here’s my ranking for all the races — although I don’t think anything is even remotely possible once you get down to around 20

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. Oregon

    7. Maine

    8. Mississippi (Wicker)

    9. Louisiana (D held seat)

    10. Minnesota

    11. North Carolina

    12. Kentucky

    13. New Jersey (D held seat)

    14. Texas

    15. Oklahoma

    16. Nebraska

    17. Kansas

    18. Georgia

    19. Idaho

    20. South Carolina

    21. Tennessee

    22. Alabama

    23. Mississippi (Cochran)

    24. South Dakota (D)

    26. Michigan (D)

    27. West Virginia (D)

    28. Iowa (D)

    29. Delaware (D)

    30. Illinois (D)

    31. Wyoming (Barasso)

    32: tie   (impossible)

      Wyoming (Enzi)

      Massaschusetts (D)

      Rhode Island (D)

      Montana (D)

      Arkansas (D)

  26. Independent Dean Barkley won’t run

    http://www.startribune.com/pol

    MINNEAPOLIS – Former Jesse Ventura adviser Dean Barkley says he’s decided not to run for the U.S. Senate this year, where he served briefly in 2002, but still hopes his old boss will run.

    When Ventura was governor, he appointed Barkley to fill the remainder of Paul Wellstone’s term after Wellstone was killed in a plane crash. Barkley had persuaded Ventura to run for governor in 1998 and later served in his administration.

    Barkley said a few weeks ago he might run as an independent this year, but now says he recently got a new job that prevents him from getting in the race.

    Barkley would not have won but he may have drawn around 10% of the vote. The recent SUSA poll had him drawing roughley equally from Coleman and Franken but my hunch is he would have hurt Franken more (splitting the anti-incumbant vote). The big remaining question is if Jessie Ventura will run. My guess would be Ventura is just trying to sell books and has no intention of running but you never know.

  27. 1  VA  Jim Gilmore V Mark Warner

    2  NM  Steve Pearce V Tom Udall

    3  NH  John Sununnu V Jeanne Shaheen

    4  CO  Bob Schaffer V Mark Udall

    5  AK  Ted Stevens V Mark Beigich

    6  MSb Roger Wicker V Ronnie Musgrove

    7  MN  Norm Coleman V Al Franken

    8  NC  Elizabeth Dole V Kay Hagan

    9  OR  Gordon Smith V Jeff Merkley

    10 LA  Mary Landrieu V John Kennedy

    11 ME  Susan Collins V Tom Allen

    12 KY  Mitch McConell V Bruce Lunsford

    13 KS  Pat Roberts V Jim Slattery

    14 TX  John Cornyn V Rick Noriega

    15 NE  Mike Johanns V Scott Kleeb

    16 OK  James Inhofe V Andrew Rice

    17 NJ  Dick Zimmer V Frank Lautneberg

    18 ID  Jim Risch V Larry LaRocco

    19 SD  Tim Johnson V Joel Dykstra

    20 MI  Carl Levin V Jack Hoogendyk

    21 GA  Saxby Chambliss V Jim Martin ???

    22 IA  Tom Harkin V Chris Reed

    23 MSa Thad Cochran V Erick Flemming

    24 AL  Jeff Sessions V Vivian Figures

    25 WV  Jay Rockerfeller V Jay Wolfe

    26 MA  John Kerry V Jeff Beaty

    27 TN  Lamar Alexander V Bob Tuke

    28 MT  Max Baucus V Bob Kelleher

    29 DE  Joe Biden V Christine O’Donnell

    30 SC  Lindsey Graham V (Runoff)

    31 IL  Dick Durbin V Steve Sauerberg

    32 WYb John Barasso V Nick Carter?

    33 WYa Mike Enzi V Chris Rothfuss ?

    34 RI  Jack Reed  – Unopposed*

    35 AR  Mark Pryor – Unopposed

  28. Below is a table averaging all of the rankings.

    Blanks (states not ranked) were replaced with the next highest ranking.  For example, if someone ranked 14 races, the remaining states received a ranking of 15.

    The sample size (number of entries) is 26.

    The number in parentheses is the average ranking.

    1. Virginia (1.00)

    2. New Mexico (2.00)

    3. New Hampshire (3.46)

    4. Colorado (3.54)

    5. Alaska (5.19)

    6. Mississippi – B (7.15)

    7. Oregon (7.50)

    8. Minnesota (7.81)

    9. North Carolina (9.04)

    10. Louisiana (10.88)

    11. Maine (11.04)

    12. Kentucky (11.73)

    13. Kansas (13.42)

    14. Texas (13.96)

    15. Nebraska (14.54)

    16. Oklahoma (14.69)

    17. Idaho (15.23)

    18. New Jersey (15.88)

    19. Georgia (16.50)

    Below that, there were very few entries for other states, so they were not included.

  29. my list:

    1/ VIRGINIA

    2/ NEW MEXICO

    3/ COLORADO

    4/ NEW HAMPSHIRE

    5/ ALASKA

    6/ OREGON

    7/ NORTH CAROLINA

    8/ MISSISSIPPI(b)

    9/ MINNESOTA

    10/MAINE

    11/KENTUCKY

    12/OKLAHOMA

    13/TEXAS

    14/KANSAS

    15/NEBRASKA

    16/GEORGIA(martin candidacy only)

    17/IDAHO

  30. Here is where Rasmussen has the races using the most recent polls.  I only use Rasmussen because they are the only firm polling Senate races frequently.  The only race they are obviously well off the mark is KY.

    VA – Up by 27

    NM – Up by 16

    NH – Up by 7

    CO – Up by 6

    KY – Up by 5

    MS – Up by 1

    AK – Down by 2

    MN – Down by 3

    ME – Down by 7

    OR – down by 9

    KS – Down by 9

    NC – Down by 14

    NE – Down by 15

    TX – Down by 17

    Races Rasmussen has not polled which may matter: OK, ID

    Dem seat in danger

    LA – Up by 3

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