SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (7/22/08)

Republicans may have gotten their preferred choice for this race in state Rep. Jay Love, but he was battered heavily in a divisive primary against Wiregrass-area state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. Democrat Bobby Bright’s campaign smartly went up with a bio ad in Dothan, his birthplace, this past Wednesday in an effort to sway Smith supporters. Bright will likely have the airwaves largely to himself for a short period – at least while Love refills his coffers from the expensive and nasty primary. Love, who shares a geographic base with Bright, still has a clear edge in this R+13 district, but it is no longer a commanding one.

Republicans were initially quite giddy when longtime Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer retired, leaving his R+6.5 district for the taking, but candidate recruitment and fundraising are tilting the landscape in northern Alabama back to the Democrats. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, significantly out-raised Republican Wayne Parker in the last quarter. Coupled with a divisive Republican runoff that drained Parker’s reserves, Griffith now holds a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this traditionally Democratic district. Griffith has been airing ads portraying himself as a statesman ready to fill the chair of Bud Cramer, and most observers agree that he is a cut above Parker, who lost this district twice in the ’90s.

After dispatching Francine Busby in a high-profile special election in 2006 (and again that November), many Democrats were not sanguine about taking on the incumbent again in this R+4.6 district. But Democrat Nick Leibham has amassed some impressive fundraising numbers, out-raising Bilbray in the second quarter. An upset here is unlikely, but it can’t be completely ruled out in this slightly Dem-trending district.

After Democrat Joe Courtney beat Rob Simmons by the closest of margins in this D+7.6 district in 2006, Republicans had hoped that Simmons could be convinced to try to reclaim his seat. Simmons passed on the idea, but national Republicans were initially high on Sean Sullivan, the former commanding officer of Groton’s submarine base, as an acceptable alternative. But Sullivan began his campaign with a resounding thud, refusing to devote serious time to fundraising and he quickly fell down – way down – the list of Republican targets. Sullivan’s most recent fundraising quarter was another dud, as he took in a mere $89K and is currently sitting on $155K cash-on-hand to Courtney’s $1.4 million. With no real resources in the bank and Courtney performing well for his district in Congress, it is difficult to imagine an upset in this blue district.

Republican Bill Posey: $220K raised in the second quarter of 2008. Democrats Paul Rancatore and Steve Blythe: $18K raised (combined) in the second quarter. NEXT.

When local prognosticators were asked last year to gauge how well Democrat and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez would do in a hypothetical race against entrenched South Florida Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart, they pegged the race as a battle of the titans. Martinez has borne out those projections so far, raising a stunning $1.2 million since entering the race in January of this year.

The ghost of Jack Abramoff continues to haunt Rep. Tom Feeney, and Democrat Suzanne Kosmas has really turned up the heat this year, out-raising and out-banking Feeney in both fundraising quarters this year. Feeney still has the advantage in this R+3.1 district, but the gap is closing.

Democrat Joe Garcia is turning up the heat on entrenched Republican Mario Diaz-Balart in this R+4.4 district. He recently posted a very impressive fundraising quarter, bringing in nearly $500K and closing in on Diaz-Balart’s cash-on-hand. Demographics are beginning to trend in the Democrats’ favor here, with Republicans hemorrhaging registered voters since the 2006 elections and Democrats adding thousands of voters to the rolls. A recent Bendixen poll has Garcia trailing Diaz-Balart by a mere five points. The money, numbers, and trends are leaving us feeling very good about the direction of this race.

One of the few downgrades for Democrats this round. This race began life on SSP’s charts as Lean D because the original hand-picked GOP candidate here, Tim Baldermann, dropped out after a brief and disastrous run. The Republicans floundered without a candidate for a while, before settling on what was (at the time) their twentieth choice: Martin Ozinga.

Things have changed quite a bit since. Ozinga hauled in a massive $810K in the second quarter, to Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s $405K. Meanwhile, Halvorson has been subjected to unrelenting attacks over her past ties to deeply unpopular Gov. Rod Blagojevich, as well sniping from fellow Illinois Democrats such as Jesse Jackson, Jr. The race is still very winnable for Team Blue, especially with Obama’s expected home-state coat-tails, but it looks to have gotten a lot more competitive of late.

Republican Mark Souder became an unlikely benefactor of NRCC assistance late in the 2006 cycle, despite occupying the 33rd most Republican district in the nation – and it appears that his laziness may cause him some more November pain this year. Democratic challenger Michael Montagano out-raised Souder in the last quarter and now holds a slight CoH advantage, making an upset unlikely but remotely possible given the anti-incumbent mood.

After Democrat Brad Ellsworth torched incumbent Republican John Hostettler by a 22-point margin in 2006, few expected this seat to be particularly in danger this year, but GOP recruit Greg Goode, with a war chest of $50K, is sinking to Carl Mumpower-like levels in the fundraising race. This one is fast becoming hopeless for the hapless GOP.

After a fractious GOP primary, Republican Chris Myers has $155K in the bank and is suddenly not looking like the stellar recruit that the NRCC made him out to be. (Surprise.) Meanwhile, Democrat John Adler has built up a massive fundraising edge with nearly $1.5 million on-hand. It would be difficult for anyone to not acknowledge the Democratic edge here in this D+3 district.

Democrats are fairly high on former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague, a wealthy oilman who both a strong fundraiser and a self-funder. While this is an R+5.7 district, Republican Ed Tinsley has residency issues, as he spends a significant amount of his time in Sante Fe (a “liberal” city outside the district). The DCCC has signaled that this race a priority for them, having reserved $1.2 million in ad time in this district.

Before the primary was settled here, the DCCC was high on Erie City Councilman Kyle Foust. His candidacy soon fizzled, and it seemed for a time that so did the Democratic hopes of picking up this district. But buzz has been building for Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, who recently released an internal poll showing her leading GOP incumbent Phil English by a single point. While we will need to see stronger fundraising from Dahlkemper before we move this race up further, English is clearly scared, and this race is certainly heating up.

After a slow start in 2007, Democrat Sam Bennett has steadily improved her fundraising operation and nearly matched Dent in dollars raised during the most recent quarter. Given the district’s D+1.6 lean, an upset can’t be ruled out here if Bennett continues to build strength.

Texas’ 7th CD is no doubt a Republican stronghold, but it’s been trending slightly Democratic since 2000. Democrat Michael Skelly, a wealthy wind energy pioneer, emerged out of nowhere earlier this year and has been raising and banking money at a breakneck speed. He also has the potential to pour much more of his own considerable resources into the race. While Culberson is still heavily favored, Skelly has proved that his campaign is for real and is making the incumbent sweat.

Thelma Drake has always been damaged goods at best, winning her first election in 2004 with 55% of the vote and hanging on with just 51% in 2006. Democrat Glenn Nye has kept things relatively close in the cash-on-hand department and raised just $19K less than Drake this past quarter. What’s more, he was recently added to Red to Blue. On top of that, black voters have typically turned out in a proportion smaller than their numbers would suggest – the district’s black population is 21% – but that may be about to change. With Obama energizing folks at the top of the ticket and promising a massive registration campaign, this could tilt the balance in VA-02.

Democrat Tom Perriello has raised some good scratch here: $310K in the last quarter. That’s less than incumbent Virgil Goode’s $390K, but cycle-to-date, Perriello has actually brought in more money ($911K to $818K). That alone is enough to make this R+6 seat a closer race.

While lagging behind in the money race after an expensive primary, Democrat Gerry Connolly is far ahead of Republican Keith Fimian in terms of name recognition due to his tenure as chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors. Connolly’s name recognition, combined with Northern Virginia’s rapid Democratic trend and the downballot boost provided by the Obama-Warner coordinated campaign give Connolly the early edge here.

Of all the vulnerable Republican incumbents this year, we feel compelled to acknowledge that Dave Reichert is the first to lose a clear edge over his opponent, Democrat Darcy Burner. Reichert’s incumbency is less potent than other vulnerable incumbents in the Lean R column given his short tenure. Furthermore, he hasn’t been addressing his fundraising as seriously as other similarly-situated Republicans, allowing Burner to build a $1.25 million to $916K cash-on-hand advantage. In a tilt-Dem district (D+2.3) in a state and region where Obama is showing some early strength over McCain, Reichert is standing on shaky ground.