A lot has happened since we last ranked the Senate races in June, so I think it’s high time that we do another one of these. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
135 thoughts on “August Senate Cattle Call”
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1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (may drop if Stevens is not on ballot)
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Oregon (We just have to be competent to win here, the wave will do the rest)
7. Louisiana (Not out of the woods yet, it looks like McCain is gonna get about 57-60 here)
8. Mississippi – B
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Nebraska
Everything else is off the map as far as I can tell, but I’d keep a watchful eye on Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia (if Martin wins) and Idaho. You never know when dead girl/live boy may occur.
1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. AK
5. NH
6. OR
7. ME
8. MN
9. LA
10. MS
11. OK
12. NC
Forget the rest unless Obama wins in a landslide.
Senate ranking.
Last weekend in DC after a fun Senate pageship. Figured i’d rank the chamber I was in.
Tier 1:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
Tier 2:
6. Mississippi-B
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. Minnesota
10. Louisiana
11. North Carolina
Tier 3:
12. Kentucky
13. Idaho (The Latest poll gave me hope)
14. Kansas
15. Oklahoma
16. Georgia
I still think Alaska is #5 but very close with Colorado. Gonna wait for the primary to see how that plays out and what the GOP does with it.
1. Mark Warner, prediction 65-35: VA-SEN, D
2. Tom Udall, prediction 61-39: NM-SEN, D
3. Mark Begich, prediction, 55-45: AK-SEN, D
4. Jeanne Shaheen, prediction, 52-48: NH-SEN, D
5. Ed Merkley, prediction, (unsure, haven’t seen enough recent polling), 51-49, OR-SEN, D
6. Ronnie Musgrove, prediction, 51-49, MS-SEN, D
7. Kay Hagan, prediction, 50.5-49.5, NC-SEN, D (I’m very optimistic here)
8. Norm Coleman, prediction 51-49, MN-SEN, R
9. Mary Landrieu, prediction 51-49, LA-SEN, D
10. Susan Collins, prediction 52-48, ME-SEN, R
just my take/.
VA
NM
NH
CO
AK (Probably moves up but depends on how things shake out)
OR
LA
MS
MN
NC
ME
KY
NJ
TX
ID
KS
GE
OK
1. Virginia is for lovers
2. New Mexico is for UFO’s
3. Alaska is for Ice Fishing
4. New Hampshire is for Presidential Primaries
5. Colorado is for Denver the Home of the Democratic Convention
6. Oregon is for Beavers
7. Mississippi is for thank God we have Alabama
8. Louisiana is for thank God we have Mississippi
9. Kentucky is for thank God for West Virginia
10. North Carolina is for Duke is Puke , Wake is Fake and NC State is the Team I really Hate
* Keep an eye on Minnesota, Texas, Georgia, Idaho and Oklahoma
Off the map : Nebraska, Maine, Kansas
A dozen or so
Safe Democratic
24) Louisiana
Likely Democratic pick-up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Mississippi-B
6) Alaska
Leans Democrat pick-up
7) Oregon
Toss-up
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Kentucky
Leans Repub
11) Texas
12) Maine
13) Idaho
14) Oklahoma
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska
Likely Repub
17) Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Mississippi-A
Wyoming
Alabama
Wyoming
I’m still trying to be conservative, but I can’t find much to change. Maybe move Georgia up to Lean Repub. I inserted 17) into my June list to show I know put it ahead of the others in the bottom tier. I could move Maine up a step or two, or put Alaska ahead of Mississippi B, but not to quibble with myself I’ll just stick with my June rankings.
And I still expect that at least half of my “Leans Repub” races will be competitive by November, Toss-ups or nearly so. One or two of the “Likely Repub” races could also become competitive, or “Leans Repub” by November. Then in the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all — but not all — of the competitive contests, winning 10 or 12 or even 14 seats. Seriously, that’s my forecast and I’m sticking to it. This will be a transformative, map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.
Here goes
1. Open (VA)
2. Open (NM)
3. Stevens (AK)
4. Open (CO)
5. Open (NH)
6. Smith (OR)
7. Wicker (MS)
8. Landrieu (LA)
9. Coleman (MN)
10. Collins (ME)
11. Dole (NC)
12. Open (NE)
13. McConnell (KY)
14. Roberts (KS)
15. Inhofe (OK)
16. Chambliss (GA)
17. Cornyn (TX)
18. Open (ID)
19. Lautenberg (NJ)
20. Johnson (SD)
21. Alexander (TN)
22. Sessions (AL)
23. Durbin (IL)
24. Levin (MI)
25. Barrasso (WY-B)
26. Graham (SC)
27. Harkin (IA)
28. Cochran (MS-A)
29. Enzi (WY-A)
30. Kerry (MA)
31. Rockefeller (WV)
32. Baucus (MT)
33. Biden (DE)
34. Reed (RI)
35. Pryor (AR)
All 35.
I think we will gain 10 seats and not lose a single of our seats.
Safe Party switch
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
Likely Part switch
3) Alaska
4) New Hampshire
5) Colorodo
Toss up
6) Oregon
7) Mississippi-B
Lean party Retention
8) North Carolina
9) Louisiana
10) Minnesota
11) Maine
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
–
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
–
12. (Louisiana)
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas
15. Kansas
16. Idaho
17. Georgia (if Martin)
18. Nebraska
Pick-ups ; in order by margin of victory
1. Mark Warner (VA)
2. Tom Udall (NM)
3. Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
4. Mark Udall (CO)
5. Mark Begich (AK) (margin unclear but def a pick-up opportunity)
Second Tier
For the second tier I think there is two categories.
1) Jeff Merkley (OR) and Tom Allen (ME): Both are in blue states that could benefit from Obama in general election.
2) Kay Hagan (NC) and Ronnie Musgrove (MS): Both are in red states and have a bit of an uphill race.
The Rest
I know a bunch of you have Al Franken (MN) but I really don’t think he has a chance.
Larry LaRocco (ID) is definitely worth watching.
Rick Noreiga (TX) is done.
Mary Landrieu (LA) is safe for the moment. I think Kennedy deserves credit for this. The guy is a joke.
Bruce Lunsford (KY) is doing a good job of drawing attention and money into Kentucky even though I don’t think there is any way we can win that one.
Conclusion
Five definite pick-ups, four tight races which I’m guessing we have a 50% chance in each and Larry LaRocco running hard. We can get 60 if Joe Leiberman is still in the caucus. I’m not sure we need to hit 60. There are at least two moderate GOPers still around (Snowe, Specter) who we can rely upon to break filibusters. The future looks pretty good.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. New Hamphire
5. Colorado
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi B
9. Louisiana (hope not)
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky
13. Texas
14. Idaho
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Kansas
18. Georgia
19. New Jersey (really hope not)
20. South Carolina
Realistic overall guess: 6 seats flip to Dems
Wish-fulfillment fantasy: 12 seats flip
I’m not even sure if I’ve done one of these before. lol
Pick up
1. Virginia (duh)
2. New Mexico (double duh)
3. New Hampshire
3. Alaska (two threes since I think Alaska could be more competitive than NH depending on the final settling of the race.)
4. Colorado
Toss up
5. Mississippi-B
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
Lean party retention
8. North Carolina
9. Minnesota
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
Everything else, pipe dreams unless the Republicans throw us another bone… I’m hoping for another gay one. Maybe Inhofe… hahaha OH… No… Lindsey Graham… lol That would be swell.
Tier 0 – Changing of the Guard (Safe, Likely, or Lean Take-over)
01. Virginia: Fmr. Gov. Warner vs. Fmr. Gov. Gilmore (Open)
02. New Mexico: US Rep. Tom Udall vs. US Rep. Pearce (Open)
03. New Hampshire: Fmr. Gov. Shaheen vs. Senator Sununu-Inc.
04. Alaska: Mayor Begich vs. Senator Stevens-Inc.
05. Colorado: US Rep Mark Udall vs. Fmr. US Rep Schaffer (Open)
Tier 1 – Competitive Races (Toss-up Races)
06. Oregon: St. Speaker Merkley vs. Senator Smith-Inc.
07. Mississippi-B: Fmr. Gov. Musgrove vs. Senator Wicker-Inc.
Tier 2 – Advantage to Incumbent Party (Lean Retention)
08. Minnesota: Franken vs. Senator Coleman-Inc.
09. Maine: US Rep Allen vs. Senator Collins-Inc.
10. Louisiana: Senator Landrieu-Inc. vs. St. Treasurer Kennedy
11. North Carolina: St. Senate Hagan vs. Senator Dole-Inc.
Tier 3 -On the Bubble (b/w Potentially Competitive & Safe)
12. Kentucky: Fmr. St. Sec. Lunsford vs. Senator McConnell-Inc.
13. Kansas: Fmr. US Rep Slattery vs. Senator Roberts-Inc.
14. Idaho: Fmr. US Rep LaRocco vs. Lt. Gov. Risch (Open)
15. Oklahoma: St. Senator Rice vs. Senator Inhofe-Inc.
Tier 4 – Safe Seats for Retention
DEM (11): AR, DE, IA, IL, MA, MI, MT, NJ, RI, SD, & WV
GOP (9): AL, GA, MS, NE, SC, TN, TX, WY, WY-B
I could have rearranged Tier 2 between the #8 and #11 spot all damn afternoon, but I decided to finally post this.
I’m thinking we have the Tier 0 races to put us up +5 making it 56-44; if we can win the two toss-ups in Tier 1 which I am hopeful we can do, that’s 58-42. From there, if we are lucky to pull in a Tier 2 race w/o losing Louisiana, we’ll be closer to 60 as every (and ridding the caucus of Lieberman).
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. North Carolina
9. Kentucky
10. Idaho
Off the map? Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska
(I left Louisiana off the map because I’m describing seats that will change hands mostly from R to D)
Republican Held Seats:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Alaska
5. New Hampshire
—————
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
—————-
10. Maine
—————-
11. Kentucky
—————-
12. Kansas
13. Idaho
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
Democratic Held Seats:
1. Louisiana
1-5 = Likely / Lean Democratic pickup
6-9 = Toss Up
10 = Lean Republican Retention
11 = Likely Republican Retention
12-15 = Races to Watch
—————–
1 = Lean Democratic retention.
are here in much greater detail.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
10. Maine
11. Louisiana
12. Texas
13. Kentucky
Wins
1.) Virginia
2.) New Mexico
3.) New Hampshire
4.) Colorado
5.) Alaska – Could move up depending on what Stevens does. I don’t think there is a GOPer in Alaska who can win here who hasn’t already stated they are not interested in running
Leans Takeover
6.) Oregon
Toss-up
7.) Mississippi-B
8.) Minnesota
Lean Retention
9.) Maine
10.) North Carolina
Likely Retention
11.) Kentucky
12.) Georgia (could change with the right Democrat on the ticket)
13.) Idaho
Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, and others might become competitive with a gaffe or two from the Incumbent.
The same goes for Louisiana, however, the GOP do not have the resources to fight there, and I think they have written off the race.
I figure the Democrats have a less than 10% chance of winning the 10 seats they would need to had a filibuster-proof majority. However, the GOP have an even smaller chance of picking up the one seat they would need to regain control of the house. (I figure Lieberman is gone from the Democrats.)
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (without a viable GOP candidate)
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Georgia (with Martin)
14. Idaho
15. Kansas
16. Texas
17. Oklahoma
easy D pickups: +3
New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire all 55%+
Lean D pickup: +4
Oregon, Colorado, Maine, Alaska
Louisiana (hold)
Tossup: +0.5
Minnesota
Lean R: -0
North Carolina
Mississippi-B
Overall change: +7.5 D
Takeovers:
1. Virginia
Former Gov. Mark Warner wins this open Republican seat by a landslide.
2. New Mexico
Rep. Tom Udall wins this open Republican seat by a landslide.
3. Colorado
Rep. Mark Udall wins this open Republican seat by a comfortable margin
4. New Hampshire
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeats incumbent freshman Sen. John Sununu by a comfortable margin.
5. Alaska
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will likely pick up this Republican held seat by either defeating indicted incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens, or defeating a replacement candidate if Stevens wins the primary and bows out. The only reason this isn’t higher on the line has to do with Alaska’s solid Republican past.
6. Oregon
State House Speaker Jeff Merkley probably beats two term incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith by 2-3 points and picks up this Republican seat.
Toss-Ups
7. Mississippi-B (Special Election)
In a pure toss-up, appointed Republican Sen. Roger Wicker faces former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. This will go either way with the eventual winner claiming victory by 1-2 percentage points.
8. North Carolina
Freshmen incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole faces Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan in what will likely be a tight contest. Given Hagan’s displayed fundraising prowess (well over $1 million in the second quarter), Dole’s anemic poll numbers and the DSCC’s intention to invest in this race, I see this shaping up as a squeaker with the winner claiming victory by 1-2 points.
Lean Retention
9. Minnesota
Freshmen incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman probably narrowly survives a challenge from Democratic satirist Al Franken.
10 (tie). Maine/Louisiana
Two incumbents, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, will likely survive tough challenges in Louisiana and Maine, respectively.
11. Kentucky
Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell likely fights off a strong challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska- Stevens likely survives primary, then convicted in Oct or so. Begich wins landslide.
4. Colorado- Udall win by 5-10
5. New Hampshire- Not as easy of a win as many predicted, but we will win this one by 4-8
6. Oregon- Merkley by 4-8
7. Minnesota- Franken will come back in the last months and win this one by 2-5
8. Maine- Moneynuke leads to narrow Allen win, 50.5-49.5 or so.
9. North Carolina- this one will be close, with either
Dole or Hagan winning narrowly.
10. Mississippi B- Only possible in a big Obama landslide, don’t expect us to win here. Wicker by 2-5
11. Louisiana- Landrieu still popular, likely to win by 2-5
12. Kentucky- Only if Lunsford spends big, McConnell stumbles, not a likely win for us.
13. Georgia- only if Martin wins, even then, not very likely.
In order likelihood of flipping:
1. New Mexico
2. Virginia
3. Alaska (if Stevens stays in–hope he’s not acquitted)
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Louisiana
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi-B
10. Minnesota
I think McCain will win the presidential election, but I’m hoping his coattails will quite small.
Predicted gain: 4-5 seats.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
8. Mississippi-B
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Texas
13. Kentucky
14. New Jersey
15. Idaho
16. Kansas
17. Georgia
18. Oklahoma
19. South Dakota
20. Nebraska
Campaign Diaries
Jeff Merkley is our Senate candidate in Oregon.
By order of biggest win to biggest loss margin
Wins:
1. VA – Warner by 23
2. NM – Udall by 18
3. NH – Shaheen by 10
4. CO – Udall by 9
5. AK – Begich by 8
6. CO – Merkley by 5
7. MN – Franken by 3
8. ME – Allen by 2
Losses:
9. MS – Wicker by 2
10. NC – Dole by 3
11. KY – McConnell by 6
12. GA – Chambliss by 9
13. TX – Cornyn by 10
14. ID – Risch by 10
15. OK – Inhofe by 11
16. KS – Roberts by 14
17. NE – Johanns by 16
Dem Holds:
1. LA – Landrieu by 5
Not a bad take, it also takes courage to predict percentages, your my kind of junky! I agree with all except I think Allen and Franken will eek it out about like Hagan! They will be the Webb/Tester size outcomes of the 08 cycle!
DEM SEATS
Likely Dem:
1) New Mexico (T. Udall/Pearce)
2) Virginia (Warner/Gilmore)
Lean Dem:
3) Colorado (M. Udall/Schaffer)
4) New Hampshire (Shaheen/Sununu)
5) Alaska (Begich/Stevens)
Tossup:
6) Oregon (Merkley-Smith)
7) Mississippi-B (Musgrove-Wicker)
Lean GOP:
8) Minnesota (Coleman/Franken/Barkley)
9) North Carolina (Dole/Hagan)
10) Maine (Collins/Allen)
11) Kansas (Roberts/Slattery)
12) Idaho (Risch/LaRocco/Rammell)
Likely GOP:
13) Kentucky (McConnell/Lunsford)
14) Oklahoma (Inhofe/Rice)
15) South Carolina (Chambliss/Martin)
16) Texas (Cornyn/Noriega)
Safe GOP: all the rest
Races to watch: Wyoming-B (Barrasso/Carter)
DEM SEATS:
Lean Dem:
1) Louisiana (Landrieu/Kennedy)
Likely Dem:
2) New Jersey (Lautenberg/Zimmer)
Safe Dem: all the rest
Races to watch: none
1) Virginia- W – Warner 64/Gilmore 32
2) New Mexico- W – Udall 59/Pearce 40
3) Alaska- W – Begich 54/ Stevens 43
4) Colorado- W – Udall 55.5/Schaffer 44.5
5) New Hampshire- W – Shaheen 52/Sununu 48
6) Oregon- W – Merkely 51.5/Smith 48.5
7) North Carolina- W – Hagan 50.2/Dole 49.8
8) Louisiana- W – Landrieu 52/Kennedy 46
9) Mississippi- L – Wicker 52/ Musgrove 48
10) Maine- L – Collins 55/ Allen 45
11) Minnesota- L – Coleman 55/Franken 45
12) Kentucky- L – McConnell 56/Lunsford 43
13) Idaho- L – Risch 51/LaRocco 39/Rammell 10
14) Georgia w/ Martin primary win- L – Chambliss 58/ Martin 41
15) Kansas- L – Roberts 59/ Slattery 41
no way…
Maine off the map, no way… The DSCC putting $5 million into it, definitely on the map.
Safe Dem (Turn out the lights, the party’s over)
1. Virginia (Warner vs. Gilmore)
2. New Mexico (T. Udall vs. Pearce)
Likely Dem (Live boy, dead girl)
3. Colorado (M. Udall vs. Schaffer)
4. Alaska (Begich vs. Stevens)
Leans Dem
5. New Hampshire (Shaheen vs. Sununu)
Tossups
6. Oregon (G. Smith vs. Merkley)
7. Mississippi-B (Musgrove vs. Wicker)
Leans Incumbent Retention
8. Minnesota (Franken vs. Coleman
Louisiana (Landrieu vs. J.N. Kennedy)
9. Maine (Allen vs. Collins)
10. North Carolina (Hagan vs. Dole)
11. Kentucky (Lunsford vs. McConnell)
Likely Repub
12. Texas (Noriega vs. Cornyn)
13. Oklahoma (Rice vs. Inhofe)
14. Kansas (Slattery vs. Roberts)
15. Idaho (LaRocco vs. Risch)
Safe for the Incumbent Party
Dem: IA (Harkin), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), SD (T. Johnson), DE (Biden), IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), AR (Pryor), RI (Reed), WV (Rockefeller), NJ (Lautenberg)
Repub: TN (L. Alexander v. Tuke), SC (L. Graham v. Conley), GA (Chambliss v. V. Jones…if Martin wins the Dem primary this race moves up), WY-A (Enzi v. Rothfuss), WY-B (Barrasso v. Carter), AL (Sessions v. Figures), MS (Cochran v. Fleming), NE (Johanns v. Kleeb)
I pose this as kind of a cocktail party sort of question: Each cycle, it seems, one challenge we “should” win fails to fall, and one longshot opportunity does fall. In 2006, we failed to take the “closer” race in Tennessee, but with the help of unscripted events, Jim Webb defeated George Allen in Virginia.
So, what falls under these categories this year?
The “safe” bets right now (and I’m looking for people willing to go out on a limb… remember the state of affairs in Aug 2006?) are probably Franken or maybe Merkley for category A, and, if you asked me and you didn’t, pie^H^H^H Lundsford or Hagen (IMO) for category B.
What say you?
No WAY is Kerry ranked 30 and behind Rockefeller at 31! Are you crazy! 🙂
Anyway, here’s mine.
As of today I think we’ll pick up these first 6 seats.
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK (just cause I don’t know how the primary is going to shake out)
6. OR (I think Merkley is this year’s McCaskill or Whitehouse in terms of a wave candidate)
Now I have a 4-way tie for 7th. I think we’ll pick up one of these seats, and I would be ecstatic if we picked up more than that. Right now, not looking so good. If this was 2012 then I think Kay Hagan wins just because of demographic changes, but for 2008 it’s still going to be a long hard slog.
7. ME
7. MN
7. MS
7. NC
I think the rest of these are are long-shots. No matter how strong Kennedy is in LA, I think there’s still enough of an AA vote and a Catholic vote in south LA for Landreau to eke out a win. She’s sucked up enough to the oil industry to squeak through. And Obama tentatively supporting the gang of 10 energy proposal may give her some more cover. I just don’t see Obama doing worse than Kerry in 2004 with a 27% AA population and Bush already getting 75% of the white vote in 2004. So I think 57% is absolute tops for McCain and it will more likely be 54-55% even with the losses of New Orleans.
11. LA
12. KY
13. NJ
What I really want though is enough votes to pass the employee free choice act. That will change this country to a more progressive one in a dramatic earth-shattering way that I don’t think many people realize. Wal-mart realizes it, that’s why they’re telling their employees to vote against Democrats.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota (just saw a great attack ad while typing this)
8. North Carolina
9. Maine
10. Mississippi-B
11. Kentucky
12. Georgia
13. Idaho
14. Kansas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Texas
I dont see much happening after 12, possibly 13 depending on how much third party candidates show to be taking in vote percentage, more polls will help.
I see Oklahoma possibly moving up, Nebraska is not going to happen, Kansas is showing the wrong trend and won’t change, Texas Noriega has no money but couldve done it.
I’m also extremely pessimistic about Mississippi-B compared to most. I just cant get that excited over a state-wide race in Mississippi, I think it’ll just end in a dissapointment. But I’m hopeful nonetheless, it certainly could happen.
We are keeping Lousiana, I see this list more as where how far deep into their terroritory can we win.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (still looks good for us against who ever the Republican will be)
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Oregon (I think Smith is helping us, the more he turns to Obama the less Republicans will vote for him, as they crucial for him to win)
7. Mississippi – B
8. Louisiana
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Idaho
14. Nebraska
1. Virginia (Solid D)
2. New Mexico (Solid D)
3. Alaska (Solid D)
4. New Hampshire (D Favored)
5. Colorado (Leans D)
6. Mississippi-B (Tossup)
7. Oregon (Tossup)
8. Minnesota (Tossup)
9. North Carolina (Leans R)
10. Maine (Leans R)
11. Louisiana (Leans D)
12. Texas (R Favored)
13. Kentucky (R Favored)
Watch List
14. Idaho
15/16. Georgia (if Martin wins)/Kansas (if not)
17. New Jersey
18. Oklahoma
I don’t think we can do Nebraska, which really depresses me.
Had you not listed a “Off the Map?” section, I would have assumed Maine and Minnesota just wasn’t in your top 10. However, you list your Top 10 and then show those four others that are off the map. Where does Maine and Minnesota fit in this? Are they Off the Map as well, or just not Top 10 and not winnable?
that Idaho isn’t even on the DSCC’s races to watch?
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Maine
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
10. Louisiana
11. Mississippi
12. Kentucky
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas
15. Georgia
16. Idaho
Alaska moves up because residents of that state are undoubtedly feeling like a-holes for naming every structure after Ted Stevens. Begich is simply a great candidate, he’ll beat all comers. The DSCC seems to be committed to Kay Hagan, which is good. Kentucky and Mississippi fall for general suckiness of our candidates. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: why are we bullish on a candidate who lost his last statewide election as an incumbent (Musgrove)? I’m not buying it. In other news, Lunsford is rich and useless. I admit to being biased in these two races: I hardly give a crap if either wins. I yawned when Harold Ford lost in 2006.
Having made the promise to make the Louisiana senate race a “bloodbath,” the NRSC is doing conspicuously little now. It’s getting late, and Kennedy’s campaign is still underwhelming. 13-16 are longshots, with super-shitty Republican candidates to make it easier on the challengers. I love Andrew Rice.
I see numerous posters having the Dems picking up 9 or more Senate seats. While I’d love that result, I just don’t see it happening.
Sure pickup: VA
Almost sure pickups: MN, NH
Fairly likely pickups: AK, CO
Toss-up: OR, MS(B)
Competitive but odds against: MN, NC, ME
I’m not holding my breath: KT
Too bad it isn’t closer: TX
I’d put LA as a fairly likely hold.
Race to watch: OK. Inhofe is just way out there, not a good place to be this year. Rice is a good candidate; we’ll see if the numbers start to move now that he’s up on TV and getting his name out.
I’m just not bullish on the MN, NC, and ME. The last one is the puzzler for me. Allen seems like a good candidate, and Collins’s supposed “moderation” is useless when she looks at McConnell every time her vote really counts. Still, in Maine they say it’s the person, not the party, so unless Allen can change that outlook, it’s going to be a tough seat to flip. (Still, I’ve sent him some bucks.)
So I’d be pretty sure of picking up at least five seats, maybe up to 8. But I think 9 is going to be tough. Then again, I wouldn’t have predicted 51 (including Lieberman) last time around; the Dems got every competitive race except KT to break their way. Perhaps it will happen again, but I just don’t see it right now.
followed by my prediction:
1.) Virginia.. 64-36, pickup
2.) New Mexico.. 61-39, pickup
3.) New Hampshire..55-45, pickup
4.) Colorado..54-46, pickup
5.) *Alaska..60-40, pickup
(big dropoff)
6.) Oregon..51-49, pickup
7.) Louisiana..52-48, hold
8.) Minnesota..54-46, (R) hold
9.) Mississippi..52-48, (R) hold
10.) North Carolina, 50.5-49.5, pickup
11.) Maine..54-46,(R) hold
12.) Kentucky..55-45, (R) hold..but we get Bunning in 2010
13.)Texas..59-41,(R) hold
14.) Oklahoma..58-42, (R) hold
*My Alaska prediction assumes that Stevens is the nominee, which, at this point, seems like the most likely scenario. I would have ranked it ahead of NH and CO but there’s too much uncertainty surrounding that race right now.
I honestly think we’ll do even better than we did in 06. Either Kay Hagan or Ronnie Musgrove will be the seventh pickup. I went with Hagan for a variety of reasons:
1.) NC is simply a more Democratic friendly state
2.) Beyond African Americans, MS does not have a reliable base of Democratic voters that unconditionally support Democrats. In NC, the Research Triangle and the state’s many college towns provide for a base of liberal Whites that Mississippi does not have.
3.) Even though Obama will undoubtedly drive up AA turnout in MS, I don’t think Musgrove can get enough White McCain voters to split their ticket.
You’re probably wondering why I didn’t include New Jersey in spite of the surprisingly close polling Rasmussen and other organizations have released. I used to live in New Jersey and New Jersey voters claim to hate their politicians yet the machine in both parties hasn’t slowed down in securing an incumbent’s re-election. The fact that Bob Menendez, a poster child of everything Jersey voters claim to hate in their politicians, beat Tom Kean Jr, the son of a wildly popular former governor, tells me that Democrats are becoming invincible at the state level in New Jersey.
my first post!
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi (B)
8. Minnesota
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Georgia
13. Texas
14. Kentucky
15. Idaho
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas
Total Dem pickup of 7-9 seats.
I have high hopes for Obama (and downticket races) everywhere, including the south. I also think it is safe to bet on high black turnout, and beating Kerry’s performance among blacks.
Having said that (and this NOT meant to imply a particular political message — like Obama must triangulate or any such nonsense), the other key is that Obama is doing very well among whites in some southern states. I would normally expect that to tighten up. Maybe it will. But maybe it wont.
The polling in North Carolina is VERY good, if you assume Obama holds his ground in the white vote — because the black vote will be better than current polling assumes. But I think, even if the polling holds up well, I think NC (for example) will be a real unknown until the results come in.
(Edited to say I know this is about the senate races, but the potential for down ticket effects means Obama is never out of the discussion.)
Rasmussen, because there have also been some star-tribune polls, and other polls, all show Franken down considerably, not to mention Coleman hasn’t even brought out the big attacks yet. Franken has little room to grow, especially considering many of the controversial things he has said in the past and his very public, very liberal positions, which is not going to help him among moderates and independants, which are coleman’s strongest point. Demographically, I don’t give him much growth, especially in the rural areas of the state, and within the Catholic vote. Both major demographics.
Definite Dem Pickup:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
Very Likely Dem Pickup
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
Lean Dem Pickup
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
Tossup
8. Mississippi B
9. North Carolina
10. Maine
11. Louisiana
Lean Republican Hold
12. Texas
13. Kentucky
14. Georgia (if Martin wins the primary)
Very Likely Republican Hold
15. Kansas
16. Idaho (but to be fair, LaRocco will come closer than any other candidate since Frank Church)
17. Oklahoma
Definite Republican Hold
18. Nebraska
19. Alabama
20/21. Wyoming A+B
22. Mississippi A
23. Tennessee
24. South Carolina
1.VIRGINIA +15
2.NEW MEXICO +15
3.ALASKA +12
4.NEW HAMPSHIRE +8
5.COLORADO +6
6.OREGON +4
7.MISSISSIPPI +2
7.NC +2
7.MN +2
IF IT AIN’T THERE, IT AIN’T FLIPPIN’ (KY,ME,TX,ID,ETC,)
Everyone agrees on 1-5 (VA, CO, NH, AK, and NM): definite flip.
Most everyone agrees that #6 is OR and #7 is MS.
BUT…the question is where does political climate put the “wave”? After the first 5? After 6? After 7? Or does it go to the next round of MN (?) And maybe ME (9)? I stop there. No NC or KY or TX for me.
What is the composition of the 51 pro-EFCA Senators? Are those the 49 Dems plus Sanders and Lieberman or are there a few dems and repubs on opposite sides of the issue?
Also, are all of the Dems who have a shot at winning Senate seats this year pro-EFCA or are some opposed?
So don’t be too hard on me. Here’s what I’m thinking about likely flips (ranked in order of most to least likely to change hands):
Tier I
1. Virginia- Obviously, Mark Warner is running so strongly this has become a near safe bet. I think he can easily win this by double digits.
2. New Mexico- I’m so thrilled about Tom Udall… And I’m not even in the state! He’s a good progressive Democrat that seems to have the gift of easily being able to win swing voters. And of course, it helps that the GOP here is running like a chicken with its head cut off. I think this is another race where we can very well get a double-digit victory, especially if Barack Obama shines at the top of the ticket.
3. New Hampshire- Democrats are simply rocking the casbah in this state. In 2006, Gov. Lynch won by the highest margin ever while Dems flipped BOTH House seats and BOTH houses of the state legislature. And already this year, Barack Obama is maintaining a nice lead while Shaheen consistently outpolls Sununu in the Senate race. Like NM, I think Shaheen will get a decent margin of victory if Obama wins here.
4. Alaska- Now that Ted Stevens is indicted, this may be the final piece of the puzzle for Mark Begich to score a win.
5. Oregon- If Merkley can continue shattering the “Gordon Smith=Moderate” myth & if Obama can develop coattails here, we can win.
Tier II
6. Minnesota- Despite Franken’s recent woes, he’s still within striking distance of Coleman. Maybe the GOP Convention next month will make Coleman look scary conservative again.
7. North Carolina- Dole seems to be surviving, but perhaps an “Obama surge” here can give Hagan another shot.
8. Mississippi- This us such a red state, but Musgrove is such a good candidate. It’s a miracle MS is even on the map.
9. Louisiana (D hold)- We’re not out of the woods yet, but Landrieu looks to be in a good position to squeak out another win.
10. Maine- Collins is still looking strong (sigh), but I wouldn’t count Allen out
just yet.
Tier III
11. Kentucky
12. Texas
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi (B)
8. Minnesota
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky
13. Oklahoma
14. Kansas
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
Alaska could be the Torricelli of this year – still need to see who crawls out of the wreckage before i rank it above the others.
Tier 2: (tossup)
6. Oregon – Merkely looks like the Sheldon Whitehouse of ’08:)
7. Mississippi-B (no party ID and the fact that the DSCC and Musgrove haven’t started spending yet give me hope)
Tier 3: (Lean incumbent)
8. Maine (Allen’s a good candidate with the resources necessary – Collins is a 2 termer with good popularity – tough race.)
9. North Carolina – Hagan’s very competitive and she and the DSCC have not yet begun to advertise. That plus Obama organizing and higher black turnout could knock out the unimpressive Dole.
10. Louisiana – Kennedy will be handily outspent by Landrieu in a democratic year with black turnout which should at least equal past year’s. I’m not sure how much the NSRC will be able to spend.
11. Minnesota – Franken’s toughest stuff is behind him and he has the warchest and ground game to compete hard against the freshman flip-flopper, but Coleman still has the advantage.
Tier 4: (Likely incumbent)
12. Kentucky – If Lunsford spends 15M then we have a game. Wealthy self-funders sometimes fail to spend what they need.
13. Georgia – Martin seems like a solid candidate and has even scratched up a little cash. If he wins the primary, I think he can take advantage of black turnout and Obama investment in the state to give the freshman a good run.
If it’s a slightly Dem env – I think we win a net of 6 seats. If it’s a medium wave, we win 9-10. A giant 1980/94/06 wave then 12!
Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, and TX are too red (and maybe too white) or too expensive and the Dems are not that impressive and have not raised funds effectively.
Tier 1 (Better than a 50/50 chance)
VA
NM
NH
AK
CO
OR
Tier 2 (With the wind at our backs)
MS B
MN
NC
KY
ME
Tier 3 (With a sea change election)
KS
ID
OK
NE
LA (Dem)
No way/ No how!
TN
SC
GA
MS A
WY A
WY B
Democratic
None of the seats outside LA is in any danger.
TX in at tier 3 just below KS
AL no way no how just below GA
1. Virginia – Gilmore is ridiculous and it amazes me that the Va. GOP actually schemed to rig system to discourage a primary with Rep. Davis. The Virginia GOP is sinking under the weight of their wingnut base. Fabulous.
2. New Hampshire – hard to recall the last time Sununu was above the 50% marker
3. New Mexico – Tom Udall has sustained his lead while GOP nominates wingnut Rep. Pearce which about seals the deal.
4. Alaska – should Stevens stand down GOP chances would improve but I can’t see him losing in primary or winning in the general election at this time.
so +4 gains in bank
5. Colorado – Schaeffer is running a campaign worthy of his 10th place all time wingnut ranking of 20th Century members of Congress.
6. Oregon – Smith is running ads including positive associations with John Kerry of all people. Desperation this early indicates to me a collapsing campaign in a relatively progressive state.
so add 2 more probable pick ups.
Toss-ups
7. Minnesota – Al Franken had a bad month and needs to realign his campaign before he runs out of time.
8. Louisiana – Landrieu is holding strong and Kennedy does not seem to be polling as well as the GOP is overall in the state. As long as her campaign remains competent I see Landrieu winning re-election in a close race about 53-47.
9. Mississippi – Wicker v. Musgrove. If the black voter turnout is as strong as registration suggests in 2008, Musgrove can win if he can get about 30ish per cent of the white vote. But can he with Obama a top the Dem ticket in deeply Confederate Mississippi?
10. Maine – I am increasingly pessimistic about this race. I do not see Allen gaining traction. Collins to be re-elected unless the Allen campaign finds a good issue in a hurry.
possible flips:
11. Kentucky – McConnell may follow in the foot steps of Tom Daschle and lose while at the apex of his career. Recent dust-up with supporters of fmr. GOP Gov. Fletcher dims McConnell’s popularity with wingnut base.
12. North Carolina – there are signs of good trends for the Democrats in this state. The Research Triangle + increased mobilized black electorate = Kay Hagan might surprise on election day. I lost any residual respect for Elizabeth Dole after she wanted to rename the recent AIDS authorization bill in honor of the late Sen. Jesse Helms.
13. Texas – Hispanic voter surge is impressive. Cornyn not particularly popular in a GOP leaning state so I see him winning but more narrowly than most expect.
14. Kansas – Pat Roberts is the definition of inertia. That usually is enough for a Republican to win statewide in Kansas, but Slattery has won in Kansas and should mount a respectable campaign. If only I could induce all my relatives in Kansas to vote Dem. Roberts would lose in a landslide. Unfortunately …….
15. Oklahoma – Jim Inhofe is probably the worst Senator currently in the Senate and Oklahoma does have the worst pair of Senators (wingnut Tom Coburn is the other Okla. Senator). Andrew Rice is running a respectable enough campagin to merit watching which is amazing in deeply Red Oklahoma.
16. GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is impressing no one. Unfortunately, Idaho is used to this and Larry LaRocco faces steep odds indeed.
others: Georgia (Chambliss), Nebraska (Johanns), South Carolina (Graham)
Safe: Dems: Pryor, Biden, Durbin, Levin, Baucus, Harkin, Kerry, Schumer, Lautenberg, Reed, Rockefeller
GOP: Sessions, Alexander, Cochran, Enzi
Here is a table showing the average August rankings (41 entries) and the change from June (27 entries) in parentheses. NC=No Change.
1. Virginia (NC)
2. New Mexico (NC)
3. New Hampshire (NC)
4. Alaska (+1)
5. Colorado (-1)
6. Oregon (+1)
7. Mississippi (-1)
8. Minnesota (NC)
9. North Carolina (NC)
10. Maine (+1)
11. Louisiana (-1)
12. Kentucky (NC)
13. Texas (+1)
14. Idaho (+3)
15. Kansas (-2)
16. Oklahoma (NC)
17. Georgia (+2)
18. Nebraska (-3)
Only races mentioned on at least one third of the entries for both June and August are included on the list. New Jersey dropped off because it was only included in 4 of the 41 August entries.