Things have changed around a little bit in my Senate rankings. But instead of an analysis of which seats are more likely or less likely to switch from red to blue, it has simply become now just a matter of which seats are more likely to flip.
1. Virginia: No Change. There is just nothing more to say here than Mark Warner gave a very senatorial speech last Tuesday night.
2. New Mexico: Pearce has stronger Republican backing which was reflected in recent polling. Too little too late, it’s in the bag.
3. Alaska: This one moves up from fifth place. Stevens was already in enough trouble prior to the indictment, but now he’s doomed. Now that he won the primary, exoneration, removal from the ballot or Palin’s selection can save the Republicans now.
4. New Hampshire: No change. Shaheen’s continued strong showing in polls tells me there is a deep dissatisfaction with Sununu that goes beyond the Republican brand. I’m not sure even McCain can save him now.
5. Colorado: Previously third. Even though Shaffer seems to be on his feet now, the only reason that this race dropped is the fact that Republicans grew so much weaker in Alaska and New Hampshire. Colorado will be hard fought on all levels, but Mark Udall remains the favorite.
6. Oregon: No change. The fact that Gordon Smith has attached himself so closely to Obama tell me that his polling is showing a very strong blue trend. Will he be washed out? Stay tuned.
7. Minnesota: Al Franken is showing signs of life. He’s pounding away on Norm Coleman and it’s taking effect.
8. North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole is showing the political community that she has a glass jaw. Never before in her life did she have to fight for anything and got by against a weak opponent in 2002. Kay Hagan is no wilting flower and the DSCC is putting up the cash to back her up.
9. Mississppi B: What does it say about this year when the top 9 seats on my list are true pickup opportunities for us? Republicans are fighting deep in red territory now and even though Musgrove has faded a bit, this one is going right down to the wire.
10. Kentucky: McConnell knows he is in for a race.
After looking over these seats, I am now revising my projection to a net gain of 6-8 seats.
1. I’d flip CO and NH – At this point it’s the strength of Sununu in comparison to Bob Schaeffer. Incumbent, stronger fundraising, better politician, etc.
2. I’d put North Carolina ahead of Minnesota because of a few reasons. The DSCC is making a big play here, and the NRSC’s five million ad reserve time was pulled like a rug from under Dole’s campaign, while they still plan to defend Coleman. It was a head fake, and they simply don’t have the money to keep a net for her at all. Dole is a weaker incumbent than Coleman. Hagan has history on her side (the senate seat flips parties every re-election for 30+ years). Also Franken, while a profficient fundraiser, brings negatives to the table that are still haunting his campaign.
3. Maine ahead of Kentucky. While Lunsford is going on the offensive, it’s hard to say he will make it too competitive if he is wildly outspent in a red state. Whereas the DSCC is making a big play in Maine, and Tom Allen is already financially competitive in a blue state.
1. VA
2. NM
3. AK
4. CO
5. NH
6. NC
7. OR
8. MN
9. MS
10. ME
11. KY
12. GA
13. TX
14. OK
15. ID
16. KS
17. NE
I feel confident about Oregon right now but I can’t quite get a grip on the race. On the one hand, Smith keeps airing more and more bizarre attack ads (the latest one ties leg. assistant pay to senior programs) but I can’t tell if they’re working or not…
I agree on your top 5.
I would put NC in 6, and GA (yes, GA) in 7, and then MN and OR
1. Virginia is close to a lock.
2. New Jersey
3. New Mexico
4. Alaska
5. Louisiana
6. New Hampshire
7. Colorado
8. Minnesota
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina
11. Mississippi B
12. Kentucky
13. Maine
14. Georgia
15. Texas
16. Oklahoma
17. Idaho
18. Kansas
19. Nebraska