Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.
While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.
On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?
(H/T: Blue Indiana)
McCain will take Indiana by a greater margin. JLT will lose by a big margin. Think rationally. JLT is no Democratic Sarah Palin.
Hillary supporters, who had trouble accepting Obama as the candidate, are now salivating at the prospect of Palin’s 16yr Tenure – 8 of them as the VEEP. Supporters, who are not salivating, richly deserve 16 yrs of Sarah Palin as well.
I find it hard to believe that an African-American voter tsunami will carry a lot of Democrats victory. Some (probably many) definitely will benefit. But posters here are counting on it a great deal more than I am comfortable with.
Just a year or two ago he seemed to be generally despised in IN and now he’s up by nearly 20 points? Did he undergo some major facelift as Governor recently or is JLT really THAT bad of a candidate? I really worry with a showing this bad by JLT it may hurt us in local IN races such as in the state house.
It’s only early September!
Now that Evan Bayh is NOT the running mate (Thank God), whoever becomes the Governor of Hoosierville really makes no difference.