Tag: SSP Gubernatorial Race Ratings

Research 2000 for WCAX-TV (10/24-26, likely voters, 9/11-14 in parens):

Gaye Symington (D): 24 (33)

Jim Douglas (R-inc): 47 (48)

Anthony Pollina (I): 23 (7)

(n = 400)

I was just going to pop this into Quick Hits, seeing as how off-the-radar the Vermont gubernatorial race is, but this is such a complicated situation that it needs some extended explanation. Jim Douglas, a very moderate Republican, has been governor of Vermont for six years, since Howard Dean left office. Vermont is one of only two states (with New Hampshire) that elects a governor every two years… and Vermont is alone in its other weird quirk: if no one gets over 50%, the race gets thrown into the state legislature. In fact, that’s how Douglas got into office in 2002: he won 45-42, with 13 going to third parties.

We may be looking at the same scenario this year; there have been few polls of this race, but they all place Douglas slightly below 50. Like 2002, there’s a strong third-party presence this year, this time in the form of Anthony Pollina, who has run for statewide office several times on the Progressive Party line (although this time he’s running as an independent).

Pollina has secured a number of endorsements (AFL-CIO, Vermont Education Association) that normally go to Democrats, and Vermont House Speaker Gaye Symington has stumbled in public appearances, which explains Pollina’s surge in the polls; if his trajectory continues, he’ll wind up finishing second.

So what happens if this winds up in the hands of the legislature? Last time in 2002, the legislature installed Douglas, who got the plurality of voters. They’re under no obligation to do so, though, and the Vermont legislature is now more thoroughly Democratically-controlled than 2002 (93-49-8 in the House, and 23-7 in the Senate)… so it’s possible that even if Douglas wins the plurality (as he certainly looks likely to do), he might not get chosen based on a partisan vote. But if Symington finishes third, could the legislative Dems bring themselves to install her? Could Pollina play kingmaker by throwing his support… or could he even wind up as the dark-horse pick? This one will be interesting to watch.

UPDATE: Although the possibility of someone other than Douglas winning at the ballot box is nil, the possibility of a non-Douglas outcome at the legislative level has encouraged us to move this race to “Likely Republican.”

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 56 (54)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 34 (37)

Andrew Finkenstadt (L): 4 (2)

Gregory Thompson (CP): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

At some point, we may have to invoke the SSP Mercy Rule on this race; with three weeks left and Nixon up by 22, it seems we can safely close the book on this race and put it on the shelf next to the Virginia senate race. Nixon leads in every region of the state, even the bible-thumping Southwest; he leads among gun owners and regular church goers. Add to this the knowledge that Hulshof, short on money, is drawing down his TV ad campaign (h/t RandySF).

Bear in mind this is the same sample that gives Obama a probably too-good-to-be-true lead in Missouri of 51-43. Even if it’s an overly optimistic sample, though, this isn’t the kind of deficit anyone comes back from.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded this race to Likely Democratic.

Swing State Project is moving its rating of the Washington governor’s race to “Tossup.”

While we’re reasonably confident in governor Chris Gregoire’s ability to prevail in her rematch with 2004 GOP opponent Dino Rossi, thanks to Obama coattails on top of Washington’s Democratic lean, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the most recent round of polling from both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA has given narrow leads to Rossi. If there’s any question, look at the trendlines.

There are several factors at work here: a higher energy level on the part of Rossi’s supporters (who have spent the last four years feeling that they wuz robbed), and Rossi’s skill as a retail politician vs. Gregoire’s reluctance to toot her own horn. Most significant is a sustained Rossi ad blitz, funded by big bucks from the Republican Governor’s Association (who don’t have too many other wise places to spend their money) and even more from the Evergreen State’s principal behind-the-scenes right-wing string-pullers, the Building Industry Association of Washington. Rossi will still be running into a stiff Democratic headwind in November, but a Rossi win is no longer out of the question.

Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.

While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.

On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Last Updated: October 29, 2008 at 3:00 PM