September Senate Cattle Call

As another month begins, it’s time for us to pause and take note of the constantly shifting picture of 2008’s Senate races. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

53 thoughts on “September Senate Cattle Call”

  1. 1 = Most likely to flip

    1. VA

    2. NM

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. MN

    6. AK

    7. OR

    8. NC

    9. LA

    10. MS-B

    11. ME

    12. GA

    13. OK

    14. ID

    15. TX

    16. NE

    17. KS

    MN/AK is a tough call, but that’s what I’m going with. I expect at least 6 of the top 8 to flip.  

  2. 1. VA

    2. NM

    3. CO

    4. NH

    5. AK

    6. MN

    7. OR

    8. NC

    9. MS-B

    10. LA

    11. ME

    12. GA

    13. OK

    14. NE

    15. KY

    16. ID

    17. TX

    18. KS

  3. 1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) New Hampshire

    4) Colorado

    5) Alaska

    6) Minnesota

    7) North Carolina

    8) Oregon

    9) Louisiana

    10) Mississippi-B

    11) Maine

    12) Oklahoma

    13) Kentucky

    14) Idaho

    15) Kansas

  4. 1.  VA

    2.  NM

    3.  NH

    4.  CO

    5.  AK

    6.  MN

    7.  NC

    8.  OR

    9.  GA

    10. MS

    11. ME

    Not much jumping around this summer.  I think we are in great shape to win at least five, and keep expanding the map, giving us 8 good shots and three others that may become real races.  All with nothing on defense (although maybe LA is closer than ME?)  

  5. 1.  VA

    2.  NM

    3.  CO

    4.  NH

    5.  AK

    6.  NC

    7.  OR

    8.  MN

    9.  MS

    10. MN

    11. GA

    12. KY

    13. OK

    14. TX

    15. ID

    16. KS

    17. NE

  6. 1. VA

    2. NM

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. Alaska (unless Stevens is acquitted)

    6. NC (the Hagan/Dole race is for real – no longer just a dream)

    7. OR

    8. MN

    9. LA (I’m feeling increasingly better about Landrieu’s chances)

    10. MS – B

    11. GA (if Obama really works the state, African-American turnout could be enough to push Martin through)

    12. ME  (Is Tom Allen going to be able to break through in time? The numbers aren’t moving fast enough right now…)

    13. OK (sleeper race here — Inhofe’s numbers are unimpressive and Rice is a good candidate — but still an incredibly tough state)

    14. KY (Not out of reach, but doesn’t feel like it is coming together)

    15. NJ (Lautenberg should be okay, but not entirely out of the woods)

    16. TX (but Noriega just isn’t raising enough money)

    17.  KS

    18. NB

    19. ID

  7. 1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    3.  Colorado

    4.  New Hampshire

    5.  Alaska

    6.  Minnesota

    7.  Oregon

    8.  North Carolina

    9.  Mississippi-B

    10. Maine

    11. Georgia

    12. Oklahoma

    13. Kentucky

    14. Louisiana

    15. Idaho

  8. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. Louisiana

    That’s it, in my view. I don’t think LA will flip, but it’s the only Dem seat with any chance of that.

  9. Everyone seems to be ranking NC below Oregon – a race where Merkley has never been able to poll above Gordon Smith for significant amounts of time. Maybe with a DSCC moneybomb we’ll see that race move, but for now, my list is:

    Tier 1:

    1) VA

    2) NM

    3) NH

    4) CO

    Tier 2:

    5) AK

    6) NC

    7) MN

    8) MS-B

    9) OR

    Tier 3:

    10) ID

    11) KY

    12) GA

    13) OK

    14) TX

    And that’s it – I don’t think any other races are competitive or even have the potential to become competitive this year.

  10. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Alaska

    5. Colorado

    6. Minnesota

    7. North Carolina

    8. Mississippi (special)

    9. Georgia

    10. Kentucky

    11. Idaho

    12. Oklahoma

    13. Maine

    14. Nebraska

    15. Texas

    16. Kansas

    17. Louisiana (D held)

    18. South Carolina

    19. New Jersey (D held)

    Georgia and Kentucky are about in the same place right now.

  11. VA

    NM

    NH

    AK

    CO

    NC

    MN

    ___

    I think we will win those

    MS

    OR

    LA

    ___

    They are possible but not likely

    ME (As a former Mainer, I am routing for Tom but it looks less likely

    __

    KY

    GA

    TX

    NE

    KS

    ID

    Real long shots

  12. I have a method of using fundraising data combined with polls to measure vulnerability.  This is what I came up with, as the list most likely to flip:

    1 – VA

    2 – NM

    3 – AK

    4 – NH

    5 – CO

    6 – NC

    7 – MN

    8 – OR

    9 – MS

    10 – ME

    11 – KY

    12 – GA

    13 – ID

    14 – TX

    15 – LA

    16 – OK

    17 – NE

    18 – KS

    19 – NJ

    I think the first 2 are solid for us.  Alaska, New Hampshire, and Colorado are in decent shape as well, especially given the funding disparity between the DSCC and the NRSC.

    As it stands, I think the battle for a filibuster-proof (and Lieberman-proof) Senate is uphill.  We’d have to win all of our top 10 prospects and only 5 of those 10 are with us today.  The environment gives us a decent shot at numbers 6 through 10, but I don’t think we’ll win them all, and right now I don’t think we’ll win any outside of the top 10.

    That said, I am particularly bullish on Jim Martin in Georgia and Andrew Rice in Oklahoma – they are our best prospects at a genuine upset outside the top 10, particularly because polling shows momentum on their side.

    Inside the top 10, I also think Liddy Dole remains in danger as long as North Carolina remains a presidential battleground, and Gordom Smith is vulnerable precisely because Oregon is not a battlground this year.

  13. 1.  VA

    2.  NM

    3.  NH

    4.  CO

    5.  AK

    6.  NC

    7.  MN

    8.  OR

    9.  MS*

    10. ME

    11. LA

    12. GA

    13. KY

    14. TX

    15. ID

    16. NJ

    17. OK

    18. NE

    19. TN

    20. KS

  14. REP SEATS

    Solid D

    1. VA

    Likely D

    2. NM

    Lean D

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. AK

    Tossup

    6. OR

    7. MN

    8. NC

    Lean R

    9. MS-B

    10. ME

    Likely R

    12. KY

    13. OK

    14. GA

    15. ID

    16. TX

    17. KS

    18. NE

    DEM SEAT

    Lean D

    11. LA

  15. Only 59 days left until we can wallow in results, rather than speculation!

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. North Carolina

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi (B)

    10. Maine

    11. Georgia

    12. Kentucky

    13. Louisiana

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Idaho

    16. Texas

    The first section is the likely flips, then tossups, then longer shots.

    I’m frustrated that Tom Allen hasn’t closed the gap more in Maine… as a left-leaning moderate Rhode Islander, I was sure that Susan Collins would go the route of Lincoln Chafee.  Surely Mainers aren’t too far an ideological leap from us!  Perhaps the all-important senate power hinging upon nabbing that 51st seat was what helped put Sheldon Whitehouse over the top in 2006.  I’m still holding out hope for Allen though, which is why Maine’s above Georgia and Kentucky.

    P.S. If Ted Stevens wins another term, I’ll lose all faith in humanity!

  16. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Alaska

    4. Colorado

    5. New Hampshire

    6. North Carolina

    7. Oregon

    8. Mississippi

    9. Minnesota

    10. Louisiana

    11. Maine

    12. Georgia

    13. Oklahoma

    14. Idaho

    15. Nebraska

    16. Kentucky

    17. Texas

    18. Kansas

    actual prediction: we win all of the first five, three of the next four (the tossups), Louisiana, and if McCain implodes, another one from the end of the list.  Probably gain of 8, maybe McCain gives us 9.

  17. In likelihood of of flipping:

    1.  VA

    2.  NM

    3.  NH

    4.  CO

    5.  NC

    6.  AK

    7.  LA  (Palin may bring out more GOP turnout)

    8.  MN

    9.  OR

    10 (tie) MS-B and GA

    Still strong for Democrats, but I’m concerned about turnout now, with a higher GOP turnout, Dems’ gains may be limited.

  18. 1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) New Hampshire

    4) Colorado

    5) Alaska (only the last poll suggested that this was even close)

    6) North Carolina (an incumbent in the low to mid-40s is in trouble – even without the Obama GOTV operation)

    7) Minnesota (Franken stays close and the ads are almost nonstop already, unfortunately the 3rd Party candidate complicates things)

    8) Oregon

    9) Louisiana

    10) Mississippi-B

    11) Maine

    12) Oklahoma

    13) Kentucky

    14) Georgia (Martin’s a good candidate and black turnout will be through the roof)

  19.   And what do you know, Democratic senate candidates are performing better than they did in August.

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska

    6. Oregon

    7. North Carolina

    8. Minnesota

    9. Maine

    10. Mississippi

    11. Louisiana

    12. Kentucky

    13. Georgia

    14. Oklahoma

  20. Set to Flip:

    1) Virginia – Senator Mark Warner

    2) New Mexico – Senator Mark Udall

    Damn Good Chance to Flip:

    3) Alaska

    4) New Hampshire

    5) Colorado

    Work It Hard (Time & $$$) & Can Win It:

    6) Oregon

    7) North Carolina

    8) Minnesota

    Hard Races, Tough to Pull Out Wins:

    9) Mississippi-B

    10)Maine

    11)Georgia

    There are those races where people tend to think “it can be a race” at the end (KY, ID, TX, NE, OK, KS), but I just don’t see it going past what is shown above. As for Landrieu in LA, she fits in around #11 or #12.

  21. Don’t listen to naysayers:

    1. va

    2. nm

    3. nh

    4. co

    5. nc

    6. mn

    7. or

    8. ak

    9. ms-b

    all others…no realistic chance for a flip

    i’m betting 1-8 flip

  22. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. North Carolina

    7. Minnesota

    8. Mississippi-B

    9. Oregon

    10. Maine

    11. Kentucky

    12. Georgia

    13. Texas

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Nebraska

    16. Idaho

    What kind of crazy year is it when these lists can get 16 seats long?

  23. 1. Virginny

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colarader

    5. Minnersoter

    6. Palinville

    7. North Caroliny

    8. Peach State

    9. Oregon Trail

    10. Mi crooked letter yada yada

    I likes NC, GA and Miss because of demographics and registraton.

    Not so much about Minn and Oregon.

    Also like Oklahoma because of cost. Still think we could get Texas with money.  

  24. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Alaska

    5. Colorado

    6. Minnesota

    7. Oregon

    8. North Carolina

    9. Mississippi-B

    10. Georgia (yes Georgia)

    11. Maine

    12. Oklahoma (you got 2 months Andrew, you can do it)

    13. Kentucky

    14. Texas

    15. Louisiana

    To Be Continued: Nebraska and Idaho.  Let’s see how it shapes up.  Sorry Kansas.

    It’s been promising recently.  12 really, really in play seats.

    Now I’m off to argue politics, whilst drinking, with a libertarian and a socialist so I’ll amend this later.

  25. Tier One – Almost guaranteed flips…

    1.) Virginia – Sometimes I forget this is a Republican held seat at the moment

    2.) New Mexico – I’m not sure who will win bigger here, Udall or Obama.

    3.) New Hampshire – Only one of two Kerry states that McCain has a real shot in. However, Shaheen should win big, and might even help Obama at the top.

    4.) Colorado – See New Mexico, only it will be closer.

    Tier Two – Lean Flip…

    5.) Alaska – If Stevens is convicted and can’t get off the ticket, he’s done. If he is exonerated, he wins with the help of Palin. If the GOP force him off, it depends on who can replace him. I’m assuming he will be on the ticket, and will found guilt of at least one charge, but not all.

    6.) Minnesota – The lastest ads by Franken have been great, and he’s back to neck-and-neck in the polls. (In fact, the latest has him up by one point.) Add in Obama’s strength in the state, and Franken should be lifted over the top.

    Tier Three – Toss-up…

    7.) Oregon – Obama is running strong here, but Merkley is lagging behind where he should be at this point. It’s not a loss, but it is not as close as I expected it would be. They have to hammer Smith on his voting record. Use his name and Republican in the same sentence every time, multiple times in every ad.

    8.) North Carolina – The last two polls have Hagan ahead, but they were both partisan polls. The last independent poll showed it was a tie, which is enough to call it a toss-up. Also, Ensign pulled money out of the race here. Not sure if this is good politics, or pay-back for Dole screwing up last election cycle.

    Tier Four – Leans Retention…

    9.) Mississippi-B – The latest polls have Wicker pulling ahead. But some argue the polls are flawed because there will be no party ID on the ballots. Not sure if this is true, or if it is enough to give Musgrove a serious shot.

    10.) Maine – Collins is not a moderate, but the media in Maine treat her as one. Unless Allens can fight against this perception and win, he’s toast.

    11.) Georgia – Martin’s win here give the Dems a shot at unseating Chambliss. Not a great shot, but a shot nonetheless.

    12.) Louisiana – Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the poll. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to fund-raising. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the political climate. However, the Republicans need a win. If they go two cycles without picking up a single Democrat head Senate seat, 2010 will get UGLY. I expect them to throw everything they have at Landrieu. I expect her to win, but they will waste resources here and make it close.

    Tier Five – Likely Retention… (Order nearly meaningless here.)

    13.) Oklahoma – Rice has run a good campaign, and Inhofe is borderline insane. (I’m being polite.) However, Inhofe has a lot of money, and there are better targets for the Democrats. Had it been a weaker year for the Democrats in terms of pick-up opportunities, Rice might have got the resources he needed to win.

    14.) Kentucky – McConnell would be a major victory for the Democrats, but I think they will wisely let Lunsford pay his own way, which means he won’t have the resources necessary to win.

    15.) Idaho – LaRocco has run an amazing campaign for little resources. However, the state is one of the reddest in the Union. Perhaps if he goes ahead with those debates that include the other right-wing candidates, they can shave enough votes from Risch that LaRocco can win this. It’s not likely, but it is possible.

    Tier Six – Safe barring a scandal…

    Texas

    Nebraska

    Kansas

    Tennessee

    Alabama

    New Jersey

    South Dakota

    (For the last two, replace scandal with health problems.)

    Tier Seven – Even getting caught with a dead girl or a live boy won’t flip this seat…

    Mississippi-A

    South Carolina

    Wyoming-A

    Wyoming-b

    Every other Democratic held seat

  26. 1) VA

    2) NM

    3) NH

    4) CO

    5) AK

    6) NC

    7) MN

    8) OR

    9) GA

    10)MS B

    I feel very good about these eight. Not so with any of the rest except my #11 but there are no Dems in my top fifteen.

    11)ME

    12)TX

    13)KY

    14)OK

    15)ID

    16)KS

    17)NE

    and the no way no how last six challenges.

    18)TN

    19)SC

    20)AL

    21)MS A

    22)WY 1

    23)WY 2

    For the Dems LA and NJ are now as off the chart as the remaining ten.

  27. Top tier (I’d be surprised if any of these don’t flip.

    1. VA

    2. NM

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. AK

    6. NC (actually, if any more polls show a Stevens comeback I may have to flip 5 & 6)

    2nd tier

    7. MN

    8. OR

    9. LA

    Longshots (but not impossible)

    10. MS

    11. ME

    12. KY

  28. With 32 entries so far, here is the consensus for September.  The numbers in parentheses are the change since August and the change since June.  NC=No Change.

    1. Virginia (NC,NC)

    2. New Mexico (NC,NC)

    3. New Hampshire (NC,NC)

    4. Colorado (+1,NC)

    5. Alaska (-1,NC)

    6. North Carolina (+3,+3)

    7. Minnesota (+1,+1)

    8. Oregon (-2,-1)

    9. Mississippi (-2,-3)

    10. Maine (NC,+1)

    11. Georgia (+6,+8)

    12. Louisiana (-1,-2)

    13. Kentucky (-1,-1)

    14. Oklahoma (+2,+2)

    15. Idaho (-1,+2)

    16. Texas (-3,-2)

    17. Nebraska (+1,-2)

    18. Kansas (-3,-5)

    Biggest Gainers since June:

    +8 Georgia

    +3 North Carolina

    +2 Oklahoma

    +2 Idaho

    Biggest Losers since June:

    -5 Kansas

    -3 Mississippi

    -2 Nebraska

    -2 Texas

    -2 Louisiana

  29. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. Minnesota

    7. North Carolina

    8. Mississippi-B

    9. Oregon

    10. Louisiana

    11. Maine

    12. Georgia

    13. Kentucky

    14. Idaho

    15. Oklahoma

    16. Kansas

    17. Texas

    18. New Jersey

    1-2 are safe, 3-5 are likely, 6-9 are tossups, 10-13 are likely to stay where they are, and 14-18 are probably safe.  

Comments are closed.