As another month begins, it’s time for us to pause and take note of the constantly shifting picture of 2008’s Senate races. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
53 thoughts on “September Senate Cattle Call”
Comments are closed.
1 = Most likely to flip
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. MN
6. AK
7. OR
8. NC
9. LA
10. MS-B
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. ID
15. TX
16. NE
17. KS
MN/AK is a tough call, but that’s what I’m going with. I expect at least 6 of the top 8 to flip.
1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. NH
5. AK
6. MN
7. OR
8. NC
9. MS-B
10. LA
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. NE
15. KY
16. ID
17. TX
18. KS
1.VA
2.NM
3.NH
4.CO
5.AK
6.MN
7.OR
8.NC
9.MS-B
10.GA
11.KY
12.OK
13.ID
14.LA
I consider all other races completely safe.
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Minnesota
7) North Carolina
8) Oregon
9) Louisiana
10) Mississippi-B
11) Maine
12) Oklahoma
13) Kentucky
14) Idaho
15) Kansas
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. MN
7. NC
8. OR
9. GA
10. MS
11. ME
Not much jumping around this summer. I think we are in great shape to win at least five, and keep expanding the map, giving us 8 good shots and three others that may become real races. All with nothing on defense (although maybe LA is closer than ME?)
1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. NH
5. AK
6. NC
7. OR
8. MN
9. MS
10. MN
11. GA
12. KY
13. OK
14. TX
15. ID
16. KS
17. NE
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. Alaska (unless Stevens is acquitted)
6. NC (the Hagan/Dole race is for real – no longer just a dream)
7. OR
8. MN
9. LA (I’m feeling increasingly better about Landrieu’s chances)
10. MS – B
11. GA (if Obama really works the state, African-American turnout could be enough to push Martin through)
12. ME (Is Tom Allen going to be able to break through in time? The numbers aren’t moving fast enough right now…)
13. OK (sleeper race here — Inhofe’s numbers are unimpressive and Rice is a good candidate — but still an incredibly tough state)
14. KY (Not out of reach, but doesn’t feel like it is coming together)
15. NJ (Lautenberg should be okay, but not entirely out of the woods)
16. TX (but Noriega just isn’t raising enough money)
17. KS
18. NB
19. ID
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi-B
10. Maine
11. Georgia
12. Oklahoma
13. Kentucky
14. Louisiana
15. Idaho
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC
7. OR
8. MN
9. MS-B
10. LA
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. ID
15. TX
16. NE
17. KS
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Louisiana
That’s it, in my view. I don’t think LA will flip, but it’s the only Dem seat with any chance of that.
Virginia
New Mexico
Alaska
New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oregon
Minnesota
Louisiana
North Carolina
Mississippi
Kentucky
Everyone seems to be ranking NC below Oregon – a race where Merkley has never been able to poll above Gordon Smith for significant amounts of time. Maybe with a DSCC moneybomb we’ll see that race move, but for now, my list is:
Tier 1:
1) VA
2) NM
3) NH
4) CO
Tier 2:
5) AK
6) NC
7) MN
8) MS-B
9) OR
Tier 3:
10) ID
11) KY
12) GA
13) OK
14) TX
And that’s it – I don’t think any other races are competitive or even have the potential to become competitive this year.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Minnesota
7. North Carolina
8. Mississippi (special)
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Idaho
12. Oklahoma
13. Maine
14. Nebraska
15. Texas
16. Kansas
17. Louisiana (D held)
18. South Carolina
19. New Jersey (D held)
Georgia and Kentucky are about in the same place right now.
VA
NM
NH
AK
CO
NC
MN
___
I think we will win those
MS
OR
LA
___
They are possible but not likely
ME (As a former Mainer, I am routing for Tom but it looks less likely
__
KY
GA
TX
NE
KS
ID
Real long shots
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. MN
7. NC
8. OR
9. MS-B
10. LA
11. KY
12. ME
13. GA
14. ID
15. OK
16. TX
17. NE
18. KS
19. NJ
20. SC
I have a method of using fundraising data combined with polls to measure vulnerability. This is what I came up with, as the list most likely to flip:
1 – VA
2 – NM
3 – AK
4 – NH
5 – CO
6 – NC
7 – MN
8 – OR
9 – MS
10 – ME
11 – KY
12 – GA
13 – ID
14 – TX
15 – LA
16 – OK
17 – NE
18 – KS
19 – NJ
I think the first 2 are solid for us. Alaska, New Hampshire, and Colorado are in decent shape as well, especially given the funding disparity between the DSCC and the NRSC.
As it stands, I think the battle for a filibuster-proof (and Lieberman-proof) Senate is uphill. We’d have to win all of our top 10 prospects and only 5 of those 10 are with us today. The environment gives us a decent shot at numbers 6 through 10, but I don’t think we’ll win them all, and right now I don’t think we’ll win any outside of the top 10.
That said, I am particularly bullish on Jim Martin in Georgia and Andrew Rice in Oklahoma – they are our best prospects at a genuine upset outside the top 10, particularly because polling shows momentum on their side.
Inside the top 10, I also think Liddy Dole remains in danger as long as North Carolina remains a presidential battleground, and Gordom Smith is vulnerable precisely because Oregon is not a battlground this year.
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC
7. MN
8. OR
9. MS*
10. ME
11. LA
12. GA
13. KY
14. TX
15. ID
16. NJ
17. OK
18. NE
19. TN
20. KS
REP SEATS
Solid D
1. VA
Likely D
2. NM
Lean D
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
Tossup
6. OR
7. MN
8. NC
Lean R
9. MS-B
10. ME
Likely R
12. KY
13. OK
14. GA
15. ID
16. TX
17. KS
18. NE
DEM SEAT
Lean D
11. LA
Only 59 days left until we can wallow in results, rather than speculation!
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi (B)
10. Maine
11. Georgia
12. Kentucky
13. Louisiana
14. Oklahoma
15. Idaho
16. Texas
The first section is the likely flips, then tossups, then longer shots.
I’m frustrated that Tom Allen hasn’t closed the gap more in Maine… as a left-leaning moderate Rhode Islander, I was sure that Susan Collins would go the route of Lincoln Chafee. Surely Mainers aren’t too far an ideological leap from us! Perhaps the all-important senate power hinging upon nabbing that 51st seat was what helped put Sheldon Whitehouse over the top in 2006. I’m still holding out hope for Allen though, which is why Maine’s above Georgia and Kentucky.
P.S. If Ted Stevens wins another term, I’ll lose all faith in humanity!
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Mississippi
9. Minnesota
10. Louisiana
11. Maine
12. Georgia
13. Oklahoma
14. Idaho
15. Nebraska
16. Kentucky
17. Texas
18. Kansas
actual prediction: we win all of the first five, three of the next four (the tossups), Louisiana, and if McCain implodes, another one from the end of the list. Probably gain of 8, maybe McCain gives us 9.
In likelihood of of flipping:
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. NC
6. AK
7. LA (Palin may bring out more GOP turnout)
8. MN
9. OR
10 (tie) MS-B and GA
Still strong for Democrats, but I’m concerned about turnout now, with a higher GOP turnout, Dems’ gains may be limited.
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska (only the last poll suggested that this was even close)
6) North Carolina (an incumbent in the low to mid-40s is in trouble – even without the Obama GOTV operation)
7) Minnesota (Franken stays close and the ads are almost nonstop already, unfortunately the 3rd Party candidate complicates things)
8) Oregon
9) Louisiana
10) Mississippi-B
11) Maine
12) Oklahoma
13) Kentucky
14) Georgia (Martin’s a good candidate and black turnout will be through the roof)
And what do you know, Democratic senate candidates are performing better than they did in August.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. Maine
10. Mississippi
11. Louisiana
12. Kentucky
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma
Set to Flip:
1) Virginia – Senator Mark Warner
2) New Mexico – Senator Mark Udall
Damn Good Chance to Flip:
3) Alaska
4) New Hampshire
5) Colorado
Work It Hard (Time & $$$) & Can Win It:
6) Oregon
7) North Carolina
8) Minnesota
Hard Races, Tough to Pull Out Wins:
9) Mississippi-B
10)Maine
11)Georgia
There are those races where people tend to think “it can be a race” at the end (KY, ID, TX, NE, OK, KS), but I just don’t see it going past what is shown above. As for Landrieu in LA, she fits in around #11 or #12.
Don’t listen to naysayers:
1. va
2. nm
3. nh
4. co
5. nc
6. mn
7. or
8. ak
9. ms-b
all others…no realistic chance for a flip
i’m betting 1-8 flip
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi-B
9. Oregon
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
12. Georgia
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Idaho
What kind of crazy year is it when these lists can get 16 seats long?
1. Virginny
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colarader
5. Minnersoter
6. Palinville
7. North Caroliny
8. Peach State
9. Oregon Trail
10. Mi crooked letter yada yada
I likes NC, GA and Miss because of demographics and registraton.
Not so much about Minn and Oregon.
Also like Oklahoma because of cost. Still think we could get Texas with money.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi-B
10. Georgia (yes Georgia)
11. Maine
12. Oklahoma (you got 2 months Andrew, you can do it)
13. Kentucky
14. Texas
15. Louisiana
To Be Continued: Nebraska and Idaho. Let’s see how it shapes up. Sorry Kansas.
It’s been promising recently. 12 really, really in play seats.
Now I’m off to argue politics, whilst drinking, with a libertarian and a socialist so I’ll amend this later.
Tier One – Almost guaranteed flips…
1.) Virginia – Sometimes I forget this is a Republican held seat at the moment
2.) New Mexico – I’m not sure who will win bigger here, Udall or Obama.
3.) New Hampshire – Only one of two Kerry states that McCain has a real shot in. However, Shaheen should win big, and might even help Obama at the top.
4.) Colorado – See New Mexico, only it will be closer.
Tier Two – Lean Flip…
5.) Alaska – If Stevens is convicted and can’t get off the ticket, he’s done. If he is exonerated, he wins with the help of Palin. If the GOP force him off, it depends on who can replace him. I’m assuming he will be on the ticket, and will found guilt of at least one charge, but not all.
6.) Minnesota – The lastest ads by Franken have been great, and he’s back to neck-and-neck in the polls. (In fact, the latest has him up by one point.) Add in Obama’s strength in the state, and Franken should be lifted over the top.
Tier Three – Toss-up…
7.) Oregon – Obama is running strong here, but Merkley is lagging behind where he should be at this point. It’s not a loss, but it is not as close as I expected it would be. They have to hammer Smith on his voting record. Use his name and Republican in the same sentence every time, multiple times in every ad.
8.) North Carolina – The last two polls have Hagan ahead, but they were both partisan polls. The last independent poll showed it was a tie, which is enough to call it a toss-up. Also, Ensign pulled money out of the race here. Not sure if this is good politics, or pay-back for Dole screwing up last election cycle.
Tier Four – Leans Retention…
9.) Mississippi-B – The latest polls have Wicker pulling ahead. But some argue the polls are flawed because there will be no party ID on the ballots. Not sure if this is true, or if it is enough to give Musgrove a serious shot.
10.) Maine – Collins is not a moderate, but the media in Maine treat her as one. Unless Allens can fight against this perception and win, he’s toast.
11.) Georgia – Martin’s win here give the Dems a shot at unseating Chambliss. Not a great shot, but a shot nonetheless.
12.) Louisiana – Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the poll. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to fund-raising. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the political climate. However, the Republicans need a win. If they go two cycles without picking up a single Democrat head Senate seat, 2010 will get UGLY. I expect them to throw everything they have at Landrieu. I expect her to win, but they will waste resources here and make it close.
Tier Five – Likely Retention… (Order nearly meaningless here.)
13.) Oklahoma – Rice has run a good campaign, and Inhofe is borderline insane. (I’m being polite.) However, Inhofe has a lot of money, and there are better targets for the Democrats. Had it been a weaker year for the Democrats in terms of pick-up opportunities, Rice might have got the resources he needed to win.
14.) Kentucky – McConnell would be a major victory for the Democrats, but I think they will wisely let Lunsford pay his own way, which means he won’t have the resources necessary to win.
15.) Idaho – LaRocco has run an amazing campaign for little resources. However, the state is one of the reddest in the Union. Perhaps if he goes ahead with those debates that include the other right-wing candidates, they can shave enough votes from Risch that LaRocco can win this. It’s not likely, but it is possible.
Tier Six – Safe barring a scandal…
Texas
Nebraska
Kansas
Tennessee
Alabama
New Jersey
South Dakota
(For the last two, replace scandal with health problems.)
Tier Seven – Even getting caught with a dead girl or a live boy won’t flip this seat…
Mississippi-A
South Carolina
Wyoming-A
Wyoming-b
Every other Democratic held seat
1) VA
2) NM
3) NH
4) CO
5) AK
6) NC
7) MN
8) OR
9) GA
10)MS B
I feel very good about these eight. Not so with any of the rest except my #11 but there are no Dems in my top fifteen.
11)ME
12)TX
13)KY
14)OK
15)ID
16)KS
17)NE
and the no way no how last six challenges.
18)TN
19)SC
20)AL
21)MS A
22)WY 1
23)WY 2
For the Dems LA and NJ are now as off the chart as the remaining ten.
Top tier (I’d be surprised if any of these don’t flip.
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC (actually, if any more polls show a Stevens comeback I may have to flip 5 & 6)
2nd tier
7. MN
8. OR
9. LA
Longshots (but not impossible)
10. MS
11. ME
12. KY
With 32 entries so far, here is the consensus for September. The numbers in parentheses are the change since August and the change since June. NC=No Change.
1. Virginia (NC,NC)
2. New Mexico (NC,NC)
3. New Hampshire (NC,NC)
4. Colorado (+1,NC)
5. Alaska (-1,NC)
6. North Carolina (+3,+3)
7. Minnesota (+1,+1)
8. Oregon (-2,-1)
9. Mississippi (-2,-3)
10. Maine (NC,+1)
11. Georgia (+6,+8)
12. Louisiana (-1,-2)
13. Kentucky (-1,-1)
14. Oklahoma (+2,+2)
15. Idaho (-1,+2)
16. Texas (-3,-2)
17. Nebraska (+1,-2)
18. Kansas (-3,-5)
Biggest Gainers since June:
+8 Georgia
+3 North Carolina
+2 Oklahoma
+2 Idaho
Biggest Losers since June:
-5 Kansas
-3 Mississippi
-2 Nebraska
-2 Texas
-2 Louisiana
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. North Carolina
8. Mississippi-B
9. Oregon
10. Louisiana
11. Maine
12. Georgia
13. Kentucky
14. Idaho
15. Oklahoma
16. Kansas
17. Texas
18. New Jersey
1-2 are safe, 3-5 are likely, 6-9 are tossups, 10-13 are likely to stay where they are, and 14-18 are probably safe.