Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.
Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….
Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.
U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)
Safe:
CA-01 (North Coast): Thompson (D)
CA-02 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Herger (R)
CA-03 (Sacramento suburbs): Lungren (R)
CA-05 (Sacramento): Matsui (D)
CA-06 (Northern SF Bay): Woolsey (D)
CA-07 (Northeast SF Bay): George Miller (D)
CA-08 (San Francisco): Pelosi (D)
CA-09 (Berkeley, Oakland): Lee (D)
CA-10 (Inner East SF Bay): Tauscher (D)
CA-12 (Lower SF Peninsula): Speier (D)
CA-13 (Southern East Bay): Stark (D)
CA-14 (Silicon Valley): Eshoo (D)
CA-15 (Santa Clara, Cupertino): Honda (D)
CA-16 (San Jose): Lofgren (D)
CA-17 (Northern Central Coast): Farr (D)
CA-18 (Upper Central Valley): Cardoza (D) – unopposed
CA-19 (Yosemite, part of Fresno): Radanovich (R) – unopposed
CA-20 (Fresno, part of Bakersfield): Costa (D)
CA-21 (Tulare): Nunes (R)
Now for the races to watch:
CA-04 (Northeast, including Tahoe): Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), Paul Netto (L) – vacated by John Doolittle (R)
Registration: R+16.00%
Profile: As a lot of people already know by now, there is a high-profile battle going on here to replace the disgraced John Do-Little (R). Fighting Democrat Charlie Brown came within a few percentage points of knocking off Do-Little in 2006 and is back again, this time facing carpetbagger Tom McClintock, whose State Senate district is 400 miles away from the 4th. In such a strongly Republican district, especially in a Presidential year, one would normally give the Republican a leg up, but Charlie has been doing fantastically, maintaining a huge cash advantage over McClintock, and polls have shown him competitive.
9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up
CA-11 (San Joaquin County and parts of East Bay): Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R)
Registration: R+2.41%
Profile: This was a pickup for us in the House in 2006, and the GOP hoped to make it one of their highest priorities, pinning their hopes on Andal. Well, now it looks like those hopes have fizzled. Andal is now in hot water over negotiations for a new San Joaquin Delta College campus ( http://www.capitolweekly.net/a… ), and the claims are coming from evil liberals registered Republican and former Andal supporter Ted Simas, a SJDC board member. The NRCC has also pulled funding from the district, meaning that we can breathe a little easier here and devote funds to CA-04 and elsewhere.
9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean McNerney
STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)
Safe:
SD-01 (Northeast, including Tahoe and Mother Lode): Dave Cox (R)
SD-03 (North Bay, part of San Francisco): Mark Leno (D) – vacated by Carole Migden (D)
SD-05 (Sacramento River Delta): Lois Wolk (D) – vacated by Michael Machado (D)
SD-07 (Most of Contra Costa County): Mark DeSaulnier (D) – vacated by Tom Torlakson (D)
SD-09 (Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond): Loni Hancock (D) – vacated by Don Perata (D)
SD-11 (Silicon Valley, most of Santa Cruz County): Joe Simitian (D)
SD-13 (Most of Santa Clara County including San Jose): Elaine Alquist (D)
SD-15 (Central Coast, part of Santa Clara County): Abel Maldonado (R)
STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)
AD-01 (North Coast): Wesley Chesbro (D) – vacated by Patty Berg (D)
AD-02 (Sacramento Valley): Jim Nielsen (R) – vacated by Doug LaMalfa (R)
AD-03 (Northeast): Dan Logue (R) – vacated by Rick Keene (R)
AD-04 (Tahoe): Ted Gaines (R) – unopposed
AD-05 (Northern Sacramento suburbs): Roger Niello (R)
AD-06 (North Bay): Jared Huffman (D)
AD-07 (Napa Valley): Noreen Evans (D)
AD-08 (Sacramento River Delta): Mariko Yamada (D) – vacated by Lois Wolk (D)
AD-09 (Sacramento): Dave Jones (D)
AD-11 (Northern Contra Costa County): Tom Torlakson (D) – vacated by Mark DeSaulnier (D)
AD-12 (Western San Francisco): Fiona Ma (D)
AD-13 (Eastern San Francisco): Tom Ammiano (D) – vacated by Mark Leno (D)
AD-14 (Berkeley, Richmond): Nancy Skinner (D) – unopposed – vacated by Loni Hancock (D)
AD-16 (Oakland): Sandré Swanson (D)
AD-17 (Stockton, Merced): Cathleen Galgiani (D)
AD-18 (Eastern Oakland suburbs): Mary Hayashi (D)
AD-19 (Most of San Mateo County): Gerald Hill (D) – vacated by Gene Mullin (D)
AD-20 (Southern East Bay): Alberto Torrico (D)
AD-21 (Silicon Valley): Ira Ruskin (D)
AD-22 (Western San Jose): Paul Fong (D) – vacated by Sally Lieber (D)
AD-23 (Downtown San Jose): Joe Coto (D)
AD-24 (Southern San Jose): Jim Beall (D)
AD-25 (Mother Lode, Yosemite): Tom Berryhill (R)
AD-27 (Northern Central Coast): Bill Monning (D) – vacated by John Laird (D)
AD-28 (Inner Central Coast region): Anna Caballero – unopposed
AD-29 (Eastern Fresno): Michael Villines (R)
AD-31 (Western Fresno): Juan Arambula (D)
AD-32 (Bakersfield): Jean Fuller (R)
AD-33 (Part of southern Central Coast): Sam Blakeslee (R)
AD-34 (Big Empty): Connie Conway (R) – vacated by Bill Maze (R)
Now, for the races to watch:
AD-10 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs): Jack Sieglock (R) vs. Alyson Huber (D), Janice Bonser (L) – vacated by Alan Nakanishi (R)
Registration: R+1.97%
Profile: You know you’re in trouble when the interior voice of your own party is voicing great concern over a seat, in this case, the California Yacht Republican Party’s voice Jon Fleischman being concerned over the 10th Assembly district ( http://calitics.com/showDiary…. ). What was once a 6% Republican advantage in registration has shrunk to a 2% advantage, and Sieglock had a much tougher time in the primary than Huber. If we have a really good GOTV, we can count on wins here and elsewhere to put us at 2/3!
9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up
AD-15 (Inner East Bay): Abram Wilson (R) vs. Joan Buchanan (D) – vacated by Guy Houston (R)
Registration: D+1.31%
Profile: Like the 10th, the Republican candidate in this one survived a really tough primary while the Democrat cruised through and is sitting pretty on a comfortable cash advantage. With a well-oiled turnout machine, we can win here, and if we do, we will shut out Republicans in every legislative seat in the Bay Area! A recent poll has Buchanan in the lead.
9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean Buchanan
AD-26 (Stockton, Modesto): Bill Berryhill (R) vs. John Eisenhut (D) – vacated by Greg Aghazarian (R)
Registration: D+1.99%
Profile: While this district has trended blue also, it will be a bit more competitive for us than the 10th and 15th. Eisenhut is a local almond farmer and fits the district well, while Berryhill is counting on name ID from his brother Tom in the neighboring 25th district and his father, who represented this area in the state legislature in the 1960s, to win.
9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up
AD-30 (Southern San Joaquin Valley): Fran Florez (D) vs. Danny Gilmore (R) – vacated by Nicole Parra (D)
Registration: D+9.15%
Profile: Normally this district is not competitive, but the polarizing Yacht Dog Parra made the past 3 elections in this district closer than they should have been. Fortunately, she’s on her way out, and Shafter Mayor Fran Florez, Sen. Dean Florez’s mother, looks to be in a comfortable position to keep this seat in our column. The fact that voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP ( http://www.istockanalyst.com/a… ) further adds to Florez’s advantage.
9/18/2008 Outlook: Likely Florez
Well, that’s it for the NorCal and CenCal races. Tomorrow, look for an analysis of the SoCal races, as well as a summary of the races we need to zero in on to win this fall.
These predictions are likely to change as time goes on, though hopefully all the races listed here will fall into our side.
That’s the first I’ve heard of it.