My latest update is ready, with the big news being Oregon and North Carolina.
1. Virginia: No change. I have nothing more to say about this one.
2. New Mexico: No change. The NRSC pulled the plug on this one.
3. Alaska: No change. Things look grim for Uncle Ted. The Federal criminal trial is underway and witnesses testified that he was never billed for the work on the house. Palin’s presence will not help either, especially since she threw him and Don Young under the bus. Young’s name on the ballot will be no help either. At this point, I don’t even think a new name on the ballot would help at this point. I think it’s over.
4. Colorado: Previously fifth. Udall’s increasing strength and new tightness in the New Hampshire race bring this up a notch.
5. New Hampshire: Previously fourth. Sununu is showing signs of life, especially with McCain’s strength at the top of the ticket. Shaheen should still win, though.
6. Oregon: No change. Merkley has surged and Gordon Smith is finding himself of trouble. Unless Smith can find a way to change the game, it might be over for him.
7. North Carolina: Previously eighth. This race has really taken off and some operatives are describing Dole as “political road kill”. I suggest everyone contribute to this race and Oregon if you can.
8. Minnesota: Previously seventh. This shifted downward only because of Hagan’s new strength. However, Al Franken has a lot of work to do.
9. Mississippi: No change. Musgrove is still in the hunt.
10. Kentucky: No change. Recent polls have Lunsford getting very close to McConnell. It remains to be seen whether he can keep that momentum up. He certainly has the money to do so. McConnell’s strength in the Bluegrass State has long been overstated by pundits. He has never been loved the way Wendell Ford was and he never had a tough opponent after 1990. I had written this one off because Lunsford did not show much signs of life. The current surge could be due to current conditions rather than the candidate. Still, we have ten races now where the Democrat is either likely to win, or has a good shot.
The #1 and #2 spot are game, set, match.
I was wavering on Colorado and Alaska given the GOTV effort in Colorado for Obama whereas Palin being on the ticket in Alaska. I think at this point, I’d have Colorado #3 and Alaska #4. That does leave NH #5 which I think you are right, given the tightening of the race with McCain polling well there. Democrats need to hit hard and move in to NH and start pushing hard (NH-Pres, NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02).
The fun begins with #6 through #8 given Oregon, North Carolina, and Minnesota. You have factors such as red/blue state, Obama GOTV/coattails, COH advantage, polls, etc. Merkley in OR has good polls, Obama coattails, Obama GOTV, and DSCC help given his disadvantage in COH. I think that gives him #6 as you have it. I am siding with you on #7 for NC since Hagan has good polls, Obama seems to be making a play in NC, and the DSCC is heavily investing there, even though it’s a red state. Minnesota slides in at #8 as Fraken has some history problems, and seems to lag just behind in his polling, but it’s a blueish state. I think the GOP convention may have had an impact, as even Obama is lagging in the polls.
Absent Maine (which really sucks), we are left with three red states to get past 8 pick-ups: Mississippi-B, Kentucky, & Georgia. I just don’t see us taking these states, but we could get a surprise like we did in 2006, most probable in MS-B, although I know all of us Democrats would love nothing other than getting back for Daschle’s loss in SD as Majority Leader by knocking off McConnell as Minority Leader.