SSP Moves Four Races to “Tossup”

GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg identified himself as an early target of the 2008 election cycle after his surprisingly tepid 2006 electoral performance against underfunded Democrat Nancy Skinner. He won that race by a mere 52-46 margin, but now faces a stiffer challenge from former state Senator Gary Peters.

A number of factors have contributed to our decision to shift this race over to the Tossup column, most notably being the district’s Democratic trend. Al Gore lost the 9th District by 47-51 in 2000, but John Kerry made it a two-point race four years later, and it looks like this trend is set to continue at the Presidential level. Public and internal polls by EPIC-MRA and the DCCC have both shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in this district by varying margins, and private polling confirms this. Furthermore, both of the released polls of this race show a tight contest, with Knollenberg hovering around the 40% mark. That’s a precarious position for any incumbent to occupy.

This race was already a Tossup before the news that John McCain will be pulling out of Michigan, but that just makes the race even tougher for Knollenberg.

We’ve been admittedly slow to come around to this race, but that’s only because we’ve been less than impressed with Kissell’s extremely sluggish fundraising efforts and questionable spending. But the DCCC has been spending heavily to make up Kissell’s gaps (including, we should note, recent expenditures on field organizing). Moreover, recent polling shows Dems surging in the Presidential and Senate races throughout the state, with noticeable results in the 8th CD — an R+3 district with a sizable African-American population and plenty of down-home Democrats.

Recent internal polling from the DCCC shows Kissell with an 11-point lead, and while that may be a temporary financial crisis bounce (especially with the banking and finance industry being so prominent in Charlotte), Hayes is plummeting in his own internals, as well. We could see Hayes ending up on the wrong side of the Democratic tide in North Carolina.

It’s beginning to become very clear why the NRCC was so desperate to keep Steve Pearce out of the Senate race in New Mexico — they knew that they could face some major problems in an open seat race in Southern New Mexico, even though the district has an R+6 tilt.

Democrats nominated Harry Teague, a former Lea County commissioner and oilman, who cuts a conservative profile that appeals to many of the district’s conservative Democrats. The Republican nominee, Ed Tinsley, is saddled by his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association — a record that the DCCC is beginning to attack in recent TV ads. Teague, who like Tinsley is partially self-funding his race, has been working the retail side of the race heavily, visiting many of the district’s far-flung towns and scoring impressive reviews in such encounters. A recent Teague internal poll shows the Democrat leading this contest by five points, and an upcoming Research 2000 poll will apparently show a similar margin. This race is wide open for the taking.

Of all the top tier races this year, this contest appears to be the most unusual. Democrats originally recruited Erie city Councilman Kyle Foust to take on GOP Rep. Phil “the Hutt” English last year. However, when his candidacy quickly fizzled out in mediocrity, the race didn’t look so promising. But Erie Arboretum director and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper has come on strong — or, perhaps we should say, English has been fading fast. A Dahlkemper internal poll from July indicated that the race was a dead heat, and the NRCC’s decision to reserve $820,000 in ad time to protect him was the first big tell here. The next indication of this race’s competitiveness was the DCCC’s decision to go up on the air against English in early September, followed by English’s very public displays of flop sweat. Indeed, the NRCC has followed through and earlier this week spent its first paid media dollars of the fall in this race.

With a recent SUSA poll giving Dahlkemper a four-point lead over English, there is no longer any doubt. This race is a tossup.