As you may have noticed, things have been pretty busy here at the Swing State Project during the past several weeks. With all the news we’ve been discussing, it’s pretty easy to miss a poll while taking a break to blink. So here’s a roundup of all the House race polls released since the start of September. If I’ve missed something, let me know. Incumbents are in italics.
District | Poll | Democrat | % | Republican | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK-AL | Ivan Moore (9/20-22) | Ethan Berkowitz | 49 | Don Young | 44 |
AK-AL | Fairleigh Dickinson (9/17-21) | Ethan Berkowitz | 47 | Don Young | 41 |
AK-AL | Research 2000 (9/15-17) | Ethan Berkowitz | 53 | Don Young | 39 |
AK-AL | Ivan Moore (8/30-9/2) | Ethan Berkowitz | 54 | Don Young | 37 |
AL-02 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Bobby Bright | 39 | Jay Love | 56 |
AL-03 | Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1) | Josh Segall | 36 | Mike Rogers | 45 |
CA-04 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Charlie Brown | 46 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
CA-04 | Val Smith (9/22-24) | Charlie Brown | 39 | Tom McClintock | 47 |
CA-04 | Benenson Strategy Group (8/21-24) | Charlie Brown | 43 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
CO-04 | Grove Insight (9/8-10) | Betsy Markey | 47 | Marilyn Musgrave | 38 |
CT-02 | University of Connecticut (9/22-28) | Joe Courtney | 55 | Sean Sullivan | 27 |
CT-04 | Feldman Group (9/17-18) | Jim Himes | 45 | Chrissy Shays | 45 |
FL-08 | Kitchens Group (9/3-6) | Alan Grayson | 44 | Ric Keller | 40 |
FL-09 | Momentum Analysis (9/20-22) | Bill Mitchell | 22 | Gus Bilirakis | 45 |
FL-10 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/7-11) | Bob Hackworth | 33 | Bill Young | 50 |
FL-13 | Public Opinion Strategies (10/1) | Christine Jennings | 30 | Vern Buchanan | 46 |
FL-13 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Christine Jennings | 33 | Vern Buchanan | 49 |
FL-13 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Christine Jennings | 31 | Vern Buchanan | 43 |
FL-13 | Feldman Group (9/22-23) | Christine Jennings | 40 | Vern Buchanan | 44 |
FL-16 | Tarrance Group (9/7-8) | Tim Mahoney | 48 | Tom Rooney | 41 |
FL-18 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Annette Taddeo | 36 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 53 |
FL-24 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/11-14) | Suzanne Kosmas | 42 | Tom Feeney | 43 |
FL-25 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Joe Garcia | 41 | M. Diaz-Balart | 45 |
ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/25-28) | Walt Minnick | 44 | Bill Sali | 38 |
ID-01 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Walt Minnick | 35 | Bill Sali | 46 |
ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/9-11) | Walt Minnick | 43 | Bill Sali | 38 |
IL-10 | Global Strategy Group (8/17-19) | Dan Seals | 39 | Mark Kirk | 46 |
IL-10 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/10-11) | Dan Seals | 29 | Mark Kirk | 51 |
IL-11 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/17-18) | Debbie Halvorson | 38 | Marty Ozinga | 36 |
IL-11 | Anzalone Liszt (9/14-16) | Debbie Halvorson | 43 | Marty Ozinga | 35 |
IL-18 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/18-20) | Colleen Callahan | 27 | Aaron Schock | 56 |
IN-02 | Research 2000 (9/29-30) | Joe Donnelly | 53 | Luke Puckett | 35 |
IN-03 | Cooper & Secrest (9/9-10) | Mike Montagano | 37 | Mark Souder | 50 |
IN-09 | SurveyUSA (9/8-10) | Baron Hill | 50 | Mike Sodrel | 39 |
KY-02 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | David Boswell | 43 | Brett Guthrie | 49 |
KY-02 | Garin Hart Yang (8/23-25) | David Boswell | 41 | Brett Guthrie | 33 |
KY-03 | SurveyUSA (9/5-7) | John Yarmuth | 53 | Anne Northup | 45 |
KY-04 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Michael Kelley | 36 | Geoff Davis | 58 |
LA-01 | Kitchens Group (9/18-21) | Jim Harlan | 31 | Steve Scalise | 42 |
LA-06 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/17-21) | Don Cazayoux | 48 | Bill Cassidy | 32 |
MD-01 | Grove Insight (9/9-12) | Frank Kratovil | 36 | Andy Harris | 36 |
ME-01 | Moore Information (9/21-22) | Chellie Pingree | 44 | Charlie Summers | 33 |
MI-07 | Myers Research (9/23-24) | Mark Schauer | 42 | Tim Walberg | 36 |
MI-07 | National Research (9/15-16) | Mark Schauer | 40 | Tim Walberg | 50 |
MI-09 | Grove Insight (8/17-19) | Gary Peters | 41 | Joe Knollenberg | 37 |
MN-01 | Tarrance Group (9/17-18) | Tim Walz | 50 | Brian Davis | 32 |
MN-03 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Ashwin Madia | 41 | Erik Paulsen | 44 |
MO-06 | SurveyUSA (9/17-18) | Kay Barnes | 42 | Sam Graves | 51 |
MO-09 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Judy Baker | 40 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 49 |
MO-09 | SurveyUSA (9/1-2) | Judy Baker | 38 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 50 |
MS-01 | Anzalone Liszt (9/7-10) | Travis Childers | 51 | Greg Davis | 39 |
NC-08 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/28-29) | Larry Kissell | 54 | Robin Hayes | 43 |
NC-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23&25) | Larry Kissell | 43 | Robin Hayes | 46 |
NC-08 | Public Policy Polling (8/25-27) | Larry Kissell | 39 | Robin Hayes | 44 |
NH-01 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Carol Shea-Porter | 44 | Jeb Bradley | 43 |
NH-01 | UNH (9/14-21) | Carol Shea-Porter | 42 | Jeb Bradley | 45 |
NH-02 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Paul Hodes | 47 | Jennifer Horn | 34 |
NH-02 | UNH (9/14-21) | Paul Hodes | 38 | Jennifer Horn | 26 |
NH-02 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/14-18) | Paul Hodes | 50 | Jennifer Horn | 32 |
NH-02 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Paul Hodes | 43 | Jennifer Horn | 39 |
NJ-02 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | David Kurkowski | 26 | Frank LoBiondo | 62 |
NJ-03 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | John Adler | 37 | Chris Myers | 39 |
NJ-03 | McLaughlin & Associates (9/8-9) | John Adler | 29 | Chris Myers | 33 |
NJ-05 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Dennis Shulman | 34 | Scott Garrett | 49 |
NJ-07 | Anzalone Liszt (8/20-25) | Linda Stender | 36 | Leonard Lance | 33 |
NM-01 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/22-23) | Martin Heinrich | 48 | Darren White | 42 |
NM-01 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Martin Heinrich | 51 | Darren White | 46 |
NM-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Harry Teague | 47 | Ed Tinsley | 43 |
NM-02 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/2-5) | Harry Teague | 46 | Ed Tinsley | 41 |
NV-03 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23-24) | Dina Titus | 39 | Jon Porter | 41 |
NV-03 | Anzalone Liszt (9/21-24) | Dina Titus | 46 | Jon Porter | 37 |
NY-26 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | Alice Kryzan | 37 | Chris Lee | 48 |
NY-26 | Brilliant Corners Research (9/15-17) | Alice Kryzan | 39 | Chris Lee | 29 |
OH-01 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Steve Driehaus | 44 | Steve Chabot | 46 |
OH-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Vic Wulsin | 39 | Jean Schmidt | 46 |
OH-02 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-30) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 37 |
OH-02 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Vic Wulsin | 40 | Jean Schmidt | 48 |
OH-02 | Tarrance Group (9/8-9) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 52 |
OH-15 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Mary Jo Kilroy | 47 | Steve Stivers | 42 |
OH-16 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | John Boccieri | 49 | Kirk Schuring | 41 |
PA-03 | SurveyUSA (9/26-28) | Kathy Dahlkemper | 49 | Phil English | 45 |
PA-04 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/17-18) | Jason Altmire | 49 | Melissa Hart | 44 |
PA-06 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/19-21) | Bob Roggio | 28 | Jim Gerlach | 57 |
PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-10/1) | Chris Carney | 50 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
PA-10 | Lycoming College (9/21-25) | Chris Carney | 46 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (8/19-21) | Chris Carney | 54 | Chris Hackett | 27 |
PA-11 | Grove Insight (9/14-15) | Paul Kanjorski | 48 | Lou Barletta | 39 |
PA-11 | Franklin & Marshall (9/9-14) | Paul Kanjorski | 35 | Lou Barletta | 44 |
TX-07 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/7-9) | Michael Skelly | 37 | John Culberson | 44 |
TX-10 | Goodwin Simon Victoria (9/28-30) | Larry Joe Doherty | 38 | Mike McCaul | 43 |
VA-02 | Bennett Petts Normington (9/21-22) | Glenn Nye | 40 | Thelma Drake | 45 |
WA-08 | SurveyUSA (9/7-9) | Darcy Burner | 44 | Dave Reichert | 54 |
WI-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Steve Kagen | 46 | John Gard | 45 |
WY-AL | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Gary Trauner | 42 | Cynthia Lummis | 42 |
JOSH SEGALL IS RUNNING IN A WINNABLE DISTRICT IN AL-03….HE SHOULD BE PUT ON THE DCCC’S RED TO BLUE LIST
I’d like to see more polling of these races.
Thanks for posting all this.
A small request re CT-04: could you please stop calling Chris Shays “Chrissy Shays,” as you do again in this chart? I know you think it’s funny, but feminizing names as a way to put people down is pretty misogynistic. It’s the kind of thing that some of your readers, maybe not the ones who comment all the time — or anyway this reader — find very frustrating when otherwise-progressive people do it. Just look at it this way: if you wouldn’t make fun of someone by kinda joking that they’re black, then don’t make fun of someone by kinda joking that they’re a woman. Easy.
BTW, as a Connecticut voter, I’m excited about the real chance we have this year to take out Shays. Himes seems to be getting a lot of press & money. If he can pull it off, and Carol Shea-Porter can hold on, then we can actually sweep all of New England…!
there was at least one Survey USA poll in KY 03
9/8/8
Yarmuth 53
Northup 45
details here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
I thought there were others, but I might be wrong on that.
Great list! I have one to add. More recent than the Survey USA polls of 9/1 and 9/2 of MO-09 there was also a Research 2000 poll frm 9/17-9/18.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/17-18. Likely voters. MoE 5%.
Luetkemeyer (R) 49
Baker (D) 40
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
MANY thanks for posting this! For those of us who don’t keep a running tally, this is really useful.
With the variability of polling organizations, polling techniques, biases, etc, I certainly agree that making a judgment on a single poll is treacherous. Therefore the more polls the better.
Can anyone explain on what basis polls are undertaken? In some hot races, AK AL for example, there has been extensive polling. In other hot races, CT 04 and OH 01 are examples, there is but a single poll. In still others, FL 13 for example, there is a great deal of polling albeit with similar results (except for the Feldman poll).
So, on what basis–or bases–are decisions made to poll a particular race?
If anyone can enlighten me, I’d be appreciative.
Thanks!
There was this firm called majority watch or something like that that polled something like 50 races late in 2006. Ayone know if they are going to poll this year?
We have to get another poll for WA-08. I can sense a rant coming on, so I’m just going to run with it.
Here goes- Burner better not run in 2010. She spent over $3 million in 2006 and is on track to reach $3 million again this year. God knows (or you guys do) how much D-trip will have spent on her behalf over the last two cycles. Is there any excuse why she should get so much money from us but still be 10 points behind (besides her being friends with someone who’s name starts with a “k” and ends with an “os”?
Thanks. I feel better.