Report fromt the Buckeye State

In Ohio, the question is:

Are you better off than you were eight years ago?

Ohio is one of the great masterworks of gerrymandering, quietly piling up undue power for the GOP on a scale with few others.

If Ohio is a pinnacle of gerrymandering, OH-01 and OH-02 are the piece de la resistance, in that they take what ought to be an urban Democratic stronghold, and instead, by banking on lingering “good ole boy” voting trends among low income voters and by CAREFULLY slicing up Cinci and its burbs: Viólá!! They get control of BOTH OH-01 AND OH-02 when they should, at best, control one or the other.

As long as the GOP has an incumbent that is anything better than “still breathing” and not under federal indictment, both Districts should be walk overs.

But that’s where “Mean Jean” Schmidt enters –stage far, far right. The evangelical quasi-cons within the GOP thought that this was their district to elect a real wing-bat. And in 2004 in Ohio, we hit a real low point.

But then in 2006, the tide turned in Ohio. And Foul Mouth Evil Mean Jean, just SQUEEKED past Wulsin.

Unfortunately,this year, Wulsin faced a primary challenge from a candidate who was a wealthy and self funded recent GOP convert. He basically tried to “swiftboat” Wulsin with accusations against Vic that have been found to be baseless.

But for whatever reason, this rematch just doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Polls show absolutely conflicting numbers on the OH-02 race. Having lived through a recent high target House race, I think people might be burned out. On our side, we’re fired up about Obama, but if you’re not, the alternative they’re stuck with is an OLD GEEZER, complete with drug addicted trophy wife (who inherited a BUNDLE.)

And there are some demographics where that just doesn’t fly. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Obama candidacy will boost the Cinci area AA vote. The big question is “By how much?” And what effect has more open and accessible voting had on low income voters spread across OH-01 and OH-02 and white ethnic groups? If there is an overall increase in AA and/or low income voters (especially young ones) are they connecting with Driehaus and/or Wulsin? What really sends the poll numbers swinging is statical changes in the definition of “likely voter.”

Translated: the ground game will be everything. There’s significant undecideds and lots of volatility.

I think that the deciding factor will be old fashioned door-to-door retail politics among the area’s poor neighborhoods, across all ethnic groups. There could be potentially a LOT of likely Obama voters if the door to door campaign is effective.

If there is even a modest drop off in lock step evangelical tin foil hat support for the GOP, then, combined with the stellar work of new Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, that could result in a 3-5 point swing in net voting JUST in changes within the pool of voters.

“O’Biden” could be just the ticket to have real coattails in some areas.

Palin was created to lock-in the very culturally conservative voters that were ALREADY likely to vote GOP. They may grouse during primary season, but come the general election, nothing will dissuade some of these people from voting GOP. But you have to contrast that with the Shrub’s ‘all time ever’ low poll numbers. There’s a friction between conservative voting tendencies vs. a guy who is pretty much REVILED throughout the country.

What’s an incumbent Congresscritter’s best campaign schtick? Why landing Air Force One, of course. But not this year. Oh, no. That’s the LAST thing that incumbent GOP Reps want this year is to see the Shrub show his face… unless of course, it’s an invitation only, thousand dollar a plate dinner.

If the fortunes of the GOP continue to slide toward oblivion (Think: Hoover) And if the Big Mo’ swings our way, convincing low income white male voters to go ahead and vote O’Bama, the GOP is sunk and we MIGHT flip anywhere from three to six seats in Ohio. In order: Boccieri, Kilroy, Driehaus, Wulsin or O’Niell, and Neuhardt.

Somehow, we need to distribute the video and audio of Ralph Stanley endorsing Obama to radio, TV stations and local blogs in Southern Ohio. If I were Driehaus, I would be working FEVERISHLY to get Ralph into the District to appear at a rally.