OR-Sen: Nice Lead for Merk

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)

Other 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.

This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)

Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.

3 thoughts on “OR-Sen: Nice Lead for Merk”

  1. And it’s going to be hard for him to recover given the ridiculous negative ads he’s run.

    Btw I went to the Portland City Club today (a nonpartisan citizen’s group with a long record of nonpartisan debates and fun knowledgeable Friday lunches) for what was supposed to be the Merkley-Smith debate but Smith ducked, meaning Merkley got 60 minutes by himself to talk about why he should be elected (with prompting by questions).

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