The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on twelve House races:
- NY-13: Likely D to Safe D
- IL-14: Lean D to Likely D
- MS-01: Lean D to Likely D
- OR-05: Lean D to Likely D
- PA-04: Lean D to Likely D
- AL-02: Tossup to Lean R
- IN-03: Likely R to Lean R
- NE-02: Likely R to Lean R
- CA-46: Safe R to Likely R
- LA-01: Safe R to Likely R
- NC-10: Safe R to Likely R
- SC-01: Safe R to Likely R
All of these moves except for AL-02 are in favor of the Democrats. We are also adding NC-05 and MD-06 to our “Races to Watch” list. Look for our writeups to follow soon. Our full race ratings chart is available here.
I’m so glad CA-46 is now officially on the map here at SSP! Still, I won’t be satisfied until it’s a “Toss-up” that we win on November 4! I’ll be working on that when I walk the neighborhood again tomorrow. 🙂
I’ve heard nothing to suggest it’s not at least a tossup at worst for us.
You should reevaluate MN-06 thanks to the controversy of Bachmann’s insanely stupid remarks on Hardball, essentially calling all liberals un-American and calling on the press to investigate un-American members of Congress. The DFL is trying to make an issue of it. http://www.mncampaignreport.co…
I’d put just about every one of the likely Dem seats as safe. It’s really difficult to imagine representatives like Chris Murphy, Dennis Moore, Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Patrick Murphy, or Ciro Rodriguez losing. On the other hand, I can easily see us nabbing a few of the seats in the Likely GOP column. In a wave election, listing representatives like those as only likely Dem just seems perfunctory.
Just the same, you all do a great job here keeping us informed of congressional races and there’s nothing wrong with being cautious.
NC-05, which I HIGHLY COMMEND YOU for upgrading to a “race to watch”, isn’t on your “race to watch” table. Instead, you’ve listed NC-10 twice.
THANKS AGAIN!
in the next Congress (see http://hillnews.com/). I think it will be about 260 but who’s counting? However, she shocked me by basically saying they have more targets than they have money and “they have a budget they can’t deviate from”..I’m like HELLO???
These kind of opportunities only come once in a lifetime…and heck, its not like any one is giving money to the GOP. I’d say splurge the next 2 wks and get as many seats as you can cos come Jan 20th, the pile of crap Bush is going to leave behind is going to take all the Democrats working together to clean it up.
its incredibly difficult to know you need to raise $120m to fund races — and also have a large debt to pay off. $15m is the largest loan a cmte has ever taken out — and they raised more than any of the committees. i think nancy is just trying to temper expectations — she’d obviously rather predict 250 dems and get 255 — then to predict 260 and get 250.