SSP Changes Ratings on Twelve Races

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on twelve House races:

  • NY-24: Likely D to Safe D
  • OH-18: Likely D to Safe D
  • AZ-01: Lean D to Likely D
  • AZ-08: Lean D to Likely D
  • KY-03: Lean D to Likely D
  • FL-24: Tossup to Lean D
  • NM-01: Tossup to Lean D
  • OH-15: Tossup to Lean D
  • CA-04: Lean R to Tossup
  • FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
  • ID-01: Lean R to Tossup
  • FL-16: Lean R to Likely R

All of these moves except FL-16 are in favor of the Democrats. We are also adding IA-05, GA-06 and PA-12 to our “Races to Watch” list. Look for our writeups to follow soon. Our full race ratings chart is available here.

10 thoughts on “SSP Changes Ratings on Twelve Races”

  1. A progressive Democrat can win in GA-01 this year:

    What might be impossible in normal times (unseating an incumbent), just might be possible this year. Obama has energized a lot of people. There are 45,000 newly registered Democrats in the 1st District. And then there is the economy, which has certainly proven that Republicans must be doing something wrong.

    Jack’s on the run. He declined to debate on Georgia Public TV, leaving Bill Gillespie with 30 minutes of free state-wide airtime.

    And GA-01 is cost-effective! Where else can you buy a TV spot for $25?

    Oust Jack Kingston; elect Bill Gillespie!

  2. Would it be possible to re-post SSP’s race ratings chart from 2006, just as a baseline for comparison?  

  3. sometimes only a wave can remove the most odious (weak nad stupid) GOPers from their perches – and i’m looking at you congressmen sali, bachmann and musgrave!

    let me hear it crash against the shore on nov 4th!

  4. in the likely R column than Lean R column (my hunch). I also think at least 16 at most 20 of the R seats in the tossup columns will flip. So my back of the hand calculation, gives me a net 30-32 seat pickup.

    Cazayoux will win handily and I think Lampson will eke out a narrow victory cos he is a hometown boy who has kept a low non-partisan profile.

    Kanjorski and Mahoney are goners (Murtha may be in trouble if he doesn’t apologize real quick, luckily for him he’s a long term incumbent and his opponent is a nobody).

    Of the GOP toss ups, I honestly think only Kirk (IL, Reichert (WA) and maybe Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL)wins, the rest are lost…yes, it is that bad for the GOP.

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