(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)
We made these changes on Wednesday, but haven’t had the chance to post our write-ups until now. Look for more write-ups on last night’s moves (as well as more ratings changes) to follow shortly.
You have to reach back a long time to find a publicly-released poll where GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave had a lead over Democrat Betsy Markey. In fact, the last and only such poll was a Musgrave internal from March. While it’s tempting to keep an R+8 district like this in the tossup column, Musgrave has been getting utterly pasted both by the DCCC and the Defenders of Wildlife, while the NRCC has canceled most of its media buys for this race. A recent Musgrave TV ad claiming that Markey was headed for jail struck us, and other observers, as a desperate move. At this point, with Colorado on the verge of turning blue and faced with a well-funded and relentless campaign against her, we would consider a Musgrave victory to be something of a surprise. (James)
It’s a testament to just how bad this year is for Republicans that we can no longer give them a clear edge in this R+10 open seat race. Every publicly-released poll since September has shown this race to be within the margin of error, and Democrat Frank Kratovil has deftly run a campaign playing up his Eastern Shore roots (in contrast to Harris’s base in the western edge of the district). The DCCC has spent over $1.8 million on this race, putting Harris at a net cash disadvantage. While a Kratovil win here would still be a remarkable feat, we can no longer comfortably give Harris a clear edge. (J)
Nowhere is the Republicans’ collapse more pronounced than Michigan, where the McCain camp, great poker players that they are, publicly threw in the towel, leaving the local GOP to flail around on their own. Even before the economic collapse (and the McCain collapse), this Dem-trending D+0 district in the Detroit suburbs looked to present a challenge for Joe Knollenberg, who almost lost a surprisingly close race to a low-profile candidate in 2006 and now faced his biggest challenge yet in former state senator and lottery commissioner Gary Peters. Post-collapse, Peters has reeled off one unanswered internal poll victory after another, culminating in a 10-point lead last week. (Crisitunity)
What does Randy Kuhl have going for him? Not the polls: he’s been down by 7 points to Democratic challenger Eric Massa in both the public polls of this race. Not likeability: his favorables clock in at 33-44. Certainly not fundraising: he’s lagged Massa in both 1Q and 3Q and ended 3Q with less CoH than Massa. I suppose he can rely on the district’s R+5 lean… except those two polls both showed Obama leading in this rural upstate New York district. Throw in nagging retirement rumors and now a big gaffe (Suffer-gate), and the math just doesn’t add up for Kuhl. (C)
Public and private polls both show Democratic attorney Tom Perriello closing in on Virgil Goode in this tough R+6 district, and the DCCC has stepped up with over $700,000 in late-breaking expenditures on his behalf.
Goode has taken to the airwaves to hit Perriello over social wedge issues and his time spent outside the district, and that might carry some weight, but probably not as much as it would have in past years. Sensing danger, the NRCC has responded with its own attacks against Perriello. While Goode still has to be considered favored here, it will likely be his closest race in quite some time — and an upset itself cannot be ruled out. (J)
Democrat Gary Trauner’s done everything right in this R+19 district (formerly Dick Cheney’s seat) – run an aggressive campaign, raised a lot of money, won over the right people (including an endorsement from the notoriously non-partisan Dem Gov. Dave Freudenthal). The problem is that with the departure of Barbara Cubin (a western Jean Schmidt), all that may not be enough. Several polls have showed a tied race here, but we’ve got to believe that the bulk of those undecideds will come home for the Republican, Cynthia Lummis. Still, the DCCC has spent heavily here (over $800K, a ton in this super-cheap media market), and Trauner has a shot here. (David)
There was no question Obama suffered from an “Appalachia problem” in the primaries, a key factor which led SSP to conclude that Democrat Anne Barth would face a seriously uphill climb in this district. And that’s on top of everything else staring Barth down in WV-02: A pretty popular long-term incumbent (with a famous name), a conservative lean to the region, and a late start. (Barth was a last-minute replacement.)
But now, Obama is polling far better here than we originally imagined he might, suggesting that WV still believes in its ancestral Democratic roots. He almost certainly won’t win the state, but his Pollster average is on par with Kerry’s take, and many individual polls have shown the race here closer. And Barth, who has raised pretty well herself, has seen a late infusion of about half a mil from the DCCC. Shelley Moore Capito only got 57% against an underfunded challenger in 2006; she’s still the favorite to hang on, but she could very well lose this time. (D)
In ’06, all the public polls showed Massa up by double digits. He lost by 4 anyways. This is apparently a difficult district to poll.
Of course, in ’06, there were only 2 polls, by the same pollster (MajorityWatch), which did poorly in upstate NY in general.
I think Massa’s got this one, and has for a while.
To be honest, though, I don’t agree that MD-01 is a toss-up. Kratovil’s got a great shot, but this is still an insanely red district. I hope you’re right, James!