(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)
While we’ve been very high on this race for a long, long time, we’ve always been aware that this is Alaska, and Don Young has seldom been threatened since he first captured this seat in the early 1970s. But lately, The Donald seems to get less and less popular with each passing year, and this cycle is no exception. Young has never lead in a single poll released since 2007, which is pretty remarkable. Pollster.com counts sixteen polls showing Young trailing, and while the man has come from behind before, he hasn’t done so in a time of extraordinary change in Alaska’s political culture — Ted Stevens is set to go to jail, and voters seem poised to give the boot to a beloved Senator. It seems hard to believe that they’ll stick with a Representative under FBI investigation whom many dislike.
Yes, Young overcame tough odds to win his primary, but only barely — and that was after one of the most inept campaigns ever witnessed by Sean Parnell and the Club For Growth. While I do not believe that Democrat Ethan Berkowitz will win this race by a large margin, a Young victory on Tuesday would have to be considered a surprise. (James)
A 14-year Republican incumbent in an R+16 district in a dark-red state shouldn’t have much trouble getting reelected, even in today’s climate. But Mark Souder just keeps making it possible, with his apparently lukewarm approach to fundraising and campaigning. In 2006, he won by only 54-46 over Fort Wayne city councilor Tom Hayhurst; the DCCC smelled a missed opportunity here and, once attorney Mike Montagano showed some promise, the money spigots opened. The district’s lean and the NRCC’s furious defense may save Souder’s butt once again, but given Montagano’s strong polling (including an honest-to-gosh 3-point lead in a public poll) and the likely best Democratic presidential performance in Indiana in more than 40 years, it’s even tougher this year. (Crisitunity)
For a long while, this looked like it was going to be a top-tier barnburner of a race. Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, was one of the DCCC’s first and most highly-touted recruits in 2007. The problem, though, is that much of the 6th District lies outside of metropolitan Kansas City, and GOP Rep. Sam Graves wasted no time in painting her as a big city liberal with “San Francisco values”. The bullshit either worked, or Graves’ campaign just never took off, because recent public polling has Graves opening up an 18-point lead over Barnes. Private polling is also pessimistic. (J)
When Kenny Hulshof retired from this seat to become gubernatorial roadkill, lots of Democrats saw some potential here… but who would have anticipated that this race, and not the highly touted MO-06, would be the one that turned into a Tossup as we entered the home stretch? It’s a combination of a particularly scrappy Dem candidate, state representative Judy Baker, with a strong base in the district’s major population center (Columbia), plus a rather bland GOPer in Blaine Luetkemeyer who emerged depleted from a bitter primary against a Club for Growth pod person (and has tapped into his own money to stay competitive). Baker has trailed in single digits in public polling (down 5 in R2K last week), and has led by as much as 4 in her own internals. The GOP probably has the natural edge in this rural R+7 district, but Baker has made a real race out of this. (C)
This race has flown under the radar all cycle, but we’ve decided that if there was one GOP-held seat that wasn’t on our competitive races list that has the very small possibility of not just being close but scraping out an upset, this is it. Virginia Foxx (something of a non-fictional version of Dana Carvey’s Church Lady) has, in her elections, underperformed this district’s dark-red R+15 inclinations, and Roy Carter, a well-known high school football coach, is a popular figure. A PPP poll from September showed Foxx up by only 2 (with an earlier PPP poll giving her a 10-pt. edge); at the time, it seemed fluky, but given Democratic strengths this year in North Carolina, even in the whiter areas (like this mountain district), who knows? (C)
This expensive, Republican-leaning district on New Jersey’s northern border was always going to be a tough nut to crack. But it looks like rabbi & psychologist Dennis Shulman has closed a lot of ground with uber-wingnut Scott Garrett and could be poised to deliver an upset. Shulman, a first-time candidate, has raised almost a million bucks and just got a dose of help from the DCCC.
He’s also gotten under Garrett’s skin, prompting shrill freak-outs and bizarre attacks. The only public polls of this race (by R2K) showed nice momentum for Shulman, while Garrett dangled below 50. It would still be an upset if Shulman were to win here, but a Dem victory now looks much more possible than at any time in the past. (David)
This race has moved hard and fast. We moved it to Likely R just a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re bumping it to Lean R. It seems that Rep. Henry Brown, Jr. never imagined he’d face a competitive race, and when he got one, he was utterly unprepared for the challenge. Maybe this isn’t so surprising: After all, Brown was so indignant about being prosecuted for burning down twenty acres of a national forest that he had the law changed so that acts like his would no longer be considered crimes. It’s not hard to imagine a schmuck like this growing entitled and complacent.
Since our last ratings adjustment, we’ve seen two polls which confirm Brown’s precarious position, even in this R+10 district. R2K showed him under 50, while SUSA gave him just a five-point lead. Dem Linda Ketner is a wealthy heiress (her father created the Food Lion chain of supermarkets) and has spent $700K of her own money on this race, addition to raising a million bucks the hard way. She could very well rock the political world come Tuesday. (D)
popular Winston-Salem mayor Allen Joines to run, like we tried to the last two cycles. Foxx is an extremist, a bad campaigner, controversial, and ineffective. Her support here is very shallow and Joines could have been the one to take her out for sure.
I have heard Ms. Ketner speak, and I am very impressed. She is one intelligent person. She doesn’t seem like a typical candidate.
While I classify myself as an independent with conservative values, I think the economy is the most important issue we face. Ms. Ketner has said that she will slow spending except on items like military and homeland defense. As a retired military person, I appreciate that.
I don’t think Mr. Brown, given his record, is able to do that for us. I am casting my vote for Ms. Ketner.