PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48
Allen Buckley (L): 4
(MoE: ±2.8%)
SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we’ll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.
There’s a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP’s first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.
The only thing that gives me hope is I would expect Martin and Chambliss to spent at nearly a 1-1 ratio in a run-off, and depending on how turnout fluctuates due to the run-off scenario. But if I had to put money down I would assume Chambliss wins a runoff.
here. Note also the SurveyDNA link which predicts the race should black composition of the electorate be 30%. We really need it to be about 33 to win both races outright.
Chambliss is real close to 50 + 1 in these polls. PPP has 2% undecided and SUSA has 3% undecided. If they break evenly, then Chambliss is at 49-49.5% in these polls, well within MOE for topping 50%. I’ve been hoping that Martin would win outright, but that may be unrealistic. I do think, however, that Martin has a 50-50 shot in a runoff since Democrats are likely to be much more energized and can probably outspend Chambliss.