VA-05: Poll Shocker: Perriello Within 3 Points of Goode

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Tom Perriello (D): 47 (42)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 50 (55)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Whoa. Tom Perriello has made some amazing strides since August, when a previous SUSA poll showed him trailing by a brutal 64-30 margin. The DCCC has come in here with over $700K of mostly unanswered expenditures in support of Perriello, and it looks like they’ve pushed this district within reach.

Perriello has built an impressive 58-35 edge among early voters, but unfortunately, that’s only 10% of the sample. A lot will come down to election day turnout here. SUSA pegs the black vote at 22%, which is in line with the most recent census figures, but if African-Americans turn out with even greater force, that might tip the scales here.

24 thoughts on “VA-05: Poll Shocker: Perriello Within 3 Points of Goode”

  1. The Obama/Warner field operation could very well put this over the top.

    It would warm my heart to see bigots like Virgil Goode, Marilyn Musgrave, and Michele Bachmann all be shown the door tomorrow night.  

  2. Perriello has run one of the best campaigns. This would be a terrific victory, defeating one of the worst Republicans in the House and replacing him with a fairly progressive Democrat. I sure hope he wins.

  3. or at least reliably biased?

    Second question: why am I on the verge of confusing Virgil Goode and Virginia Foxx?

  4. Already voted (10%):

    Goode – 35

    Periello – 58

    Undecided – 7

    Not yet voted (90%):

    Goode – 51

    Perriello – 46

    Undecided – 3%

    No twice as many people who ALREADY VOTED are undecided as those who have yet to vote?  Gotta love uninformed voters.  Hopefully they voted Periello and just forgot.

  6. the outside groups spending Perriello will have outspent Goode by 500k. He’s got the advantage of a insanely good coordinated campaign with Obama and Warner. Those three have over 20 normal offices combined which means they probably have anywhere from 50 to 100 staging locations for the final GOTV period.

    Mark Warner’s recorded a ad for him that’s running heavily and  he was endorsed by the Danville Register and Bee. A paper that endorsed Goode last time and McCain this year but also endorsed Perriello.

    This is a real tossup but I think we can pull it out. It’s going to be one of the races I’m watching closely along with MN-Sen and Prop 8.  

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