There will be 16 democratic held seats up in 2010. I’ll take a look at which of these seats I consider to have the potential to be competitive.
Before I start, I’ll just add that I’m going to be small c, conservative with this analysis. Many of the races that I put in the competitive category will probably not be competitive on election day, but that looking 2 years ahead I have absolutely no idea what will happen.
Not competitive races: Even 2 years ahead of time, I think I can safely predict that barring something unusual I don’t expect a race in these states.
1. Arkansas(Blanche Lincoln)-Huckabee is not running.
2. California(Barbara Boxer)-You think Arnold’s ego will allow him to be one of 100, and a powerless backbencher at that? PLEASE.
3. Indiana(Evan Bayh)
4. Maryland(Barbara Mikulski)
5. New York(Charles Schumer)
6. North Dakota(Byron Dorgan)-Hoeven’s passed on a race twice, no reason to believe it won’t be a third.
7. Oregon(Ron Wyden)
8. Vermont(Patrick Leahy)
9. Washington(Patty Murray)-I think 2-time loser Dino Rossi is probably too tainted by now.
Now, I’ll look at the 7 states I think could be competitive.
1. Colorado(Ken Salazar)-Things are looking real good for Salazar, but if former Gov. Bill Owens decides to return to politics, who knows.
2. Connecticut(Chris Dodd)-I don’t expect this race to be competitive. But, Dodd does have pretty mediocre approval ratings and if Chris Shays decided to run Dodd could be in for a race.
3. Hawaii(Daniel Inouye)-He runs again, he wins. But, he’ll be 86 on election day. And if he chooses to retire, the Dem will be a favorite but Gov. Lingle could give us some heartburn.
4. Illinois(TBD)-Whomever is appointed will be a heavy favorite but until we know exactly who that is, its impossible to know how this will play out.
5. Delware(TBD)-This is even more complicated than Illinois since there’s the possiblity of a place holder so Beau can run in the 2010 election. But judging by the DE GOP’s inability to field a credible candidate for the 08 Governor’s race doesn’t bode well for them here.
6. Nevada(Harry Reid)-I know a lot of people have looked at this race as potentially very competitive, but I just don’t see it. But, I have little doubt that whomever is running the NRSC will be trying hard to recruit a top-tier candidate here.
7. Wisconsin-I don’t expect this race to be competitive either. But if Scott Walker or Paul Ryan decide to run, this could turn into a very tight race.
Two years is a long ways away politically and things certainly can change. But, we would be prohibitive favorites in every race if they had been held this year. Only 3 of 13 races will be in states McCain won and we have very popular incumbents in each of those. I also think you’re right that Huckabee and Hoeven will not run. As long as the political environment does not radically turn against us in two years, we should have no problems. If it does, I suspect CO, NV, and WI will be are most endangered seats.
so we can have the benefit of a neutral atmosphere instead of a negative one. It was already noted here or elsewhere that not losing a senate seat in two consecutive cycles has never happened in the history, since we adopted the way of electing senators we have now in 1902 or 1908 or something like that. If we could go three cycles in a row, that would be amazing.
Republican’s bench in CO, WI, and NV have all been diminishing. I don’t know where they are going to recruit top tier candidates for a lot of these races. If we could go three cycles in a row without losing a single seat, that would be amazing.