Tag: 2010-SEN

According to the natural order of things, 2010 should be a good year for the Republicans.  However, they seem determined to drive the crazy train off the cliff instead of sitting down, shutting up, and letting nature take its course with a mid-term backlash against the incumbent party.  I’m predicting pretty good results for the Democrats.

SENATE

Democrats pick up six seats, Republicans none.  Great results for Dems driven by Repub retirements and a circular firing squad primary in Pennsylvania.

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS:

FL – OPEN (Martinez) – My Mayor Pam Iorio runs and takes it to the house against Vern Buchanan.  Crist does not run.

MO – OPEN (Bond) – Robin Carnahan beats Roy Blunt.

NH – OPEN (Gregg) – Paul Hodes beats who knows what Republican.  Pick up the fundraising, though, dude.

NC – Burr – Roy Cooper takes out the ATM bandit.

OH – OPEN (Voinovich) – Lee Fisher beats Rob Portman.

PA – OPEN (Specter) – Pat Toomey beats Specter.  Joe Sestak changes his mind about running and destroys Toomey.

OTHER RACES OF INTEREST:

CO – Bennet – Bennet holds on with surprising comfort.  Repubs struggle to find a strong candidate.

CT – Dodd – Dodd stubbornly stays in the race, wins nailbiter over Rob Simmons.

DE – OPEN (Kaufman) – Beau Biden wins easily.  Castle does not run.

IL – OPEN (Burris) – Giannoulias beats Burris in the primary, cruises in the general.

KY – OPEN (Bunning) – Bunning drops out.  Trey Grayson squeeks past Jack Conway in the general.  Ben Chandler does not run.

LA – Vitter – Diaper Dave wins primary over porn star and wins general comfortably.  It’s always OK if you’re a Republican in LA these days.

NV – Reid – Repubs can’t find a strong candidate.  Reid holds on comfortably.

OK – OPEN (Coburn) – Coburn retires (it’s more fun being an M.D.), but Repubs hold on anyway.

HOUSE

Democrats gain five seats and lose one, for a net pickup of four.  Dem fundraising looks great.  I’m seeing a lot of incumbents winning, with Dem gains driven by Repub open seats.  

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS

FL-10 – OPEN (Young) – Young retires (see miserable fundraising numbers).  Strong candidate Charlie Justice wins swing district.

IL-10 – OPEN (Kirk) – Kirk runs for Senate.  Democrat wins this heavily Dem district

LA-02 – Cao – Cao is destroyed by a prominent Democrat, perhaps Mayor Nagin.  This is no toss-up, Charlie Cook.

PA-06 – Gerlach – Gerlach taken out by Dem in what has become a heavily Dem district.

VA-10 – OPEN (Wolf)- Wolf retires (see miserable fundraising numbers).  Democrat squeeks by in this swing district.

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

ID-01 – Minnick – Sali defeated in primary.  Stronger Repub too much for Minnick to handle.

GOVERNORS

Democrats pick up five seats.  Republicans pick up five also, for a total wash.  

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS

AZ – Brewer – Superhero Terry Goddard takes out the inept, flailing socialist tax hiker Jan Brewer.  I CHANGED THIS AFTER BEING CONVINCED BY PEOPLE SMARTER THAN ME THAT I AM WRONG.  

CA – OPEN (Schwartzenegger) – Dem partisan edge enough to carry Dem candidate, whomever it is.

HI – OPEN (Lingle) – Same story.  Dem partisan edge too much for Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona.

NV – Gibbons – Monumentally unpopular Gibbons loses to some member of the strong Democratic bench.

RI – OPEN (Carcieri) – Repub Laffey steers enough Repub votes away from Indy Chafee for Democrat to squeek by.

REPUBLICAN PICKUPS:

KS – OPEN (Sebelius) – With incoming Gov Parkinson unwilling to run as incumbent, partisan lean is too much.

OK – OPEN (Henry) – Dems have good candidates, but the partisan lean seems too much here.

TN – OPEN (Bredesen) – Tough egg for Dems these days.  Predict Republicans win fairly close race.

VA – OPEN (Kaine) – AG’s are tough to beat.  Unfortunate scandal for Moran this week, and I don’t think McAuliffe can win.  Mr. Deeds?  Probably not going to win the primary.

WY – OPEN (Freudenthal) – I don’t expect Freudenthal to go for the third term.  Partisan lean way too much.

OTHER RACES OF INTEREST:

GA – OPEN (Perdue) – Republican staves off tough challenge.

MI – OPEN (Granholm) – Dem squeeks by on partisan edge.  

MN – Pawlenty – Pawlenty wins a close one.

NJ – Corzine – Corzine squeeks by again by going deep into his piggy bank.

PA – OPEN (Rendell) – Western PA Dem (Onorato or Wagner) beats Repub Tom Corbett by about 5.

VT – Douglas – Douglas wins a narrow plurality in a three-way race.  Legislature respects the will of the voters and gives him the seat.

There will be 16 democratic held seats up in 2010. I’ll take a look at which of these seats I consider to have the potential to be competitive.

Before I start, I’ll just add that I’m going to be small c, conservative with this analysis. Many of the races that I put in the competitive category will probably not be competitive on election day, but that looking 2 years ahead I have absolutely no idea what will happen.

Not competitive races: Even 2 years ahead of time, I think I can safely predict that barring something unusual I don’t expect a race in these states.

1. Arkansas(Blanche Lincoln)-Huckabee is not running.

2. California(Barbara Boxer)-You think Arnold’s ego will allow him to be one of 100, and a powerless backbencher at that? PLEASE.

3. Indiana(Evan Bayh)

4. Maryland(Barbara Mikulski)

5. New York(Charles Schumer)

6. North Dakota(Byron Dorgan)-Hoeven’s passed on a race twice, no reason to believe it won’t be a third.

7. Oregon(Ron Wyden)

8. Vermont(Patrick Leahy)

9. Washington(Patty Murray)-I think 2-time loser Dino Rossi is probably too tainted by now.

Now, I’ll look at the 7 states I think could be competitive.

1. Colorado(Ken Salazar)-Things are looking real good for Salazar, but if former Gov. Bill Owens decides to return to politics, who knows.

2. Connecticut(Chris Dodd)-I don’t expect this race to be competitive. But, Dodd does have pretty mediocre approval ratings and if Chris Shays decided to run Dodd could be in for a race.

3. Hawaii(Daniel Inouye)-He runs again, he wins. But, he’ll be 86 on election day. And if he chooses to retire, the Dem will be a favorite but Gov. Lingle could give us some heartburn.

4. Illinois(TBD)-Whomever is appointed will be a heavy favorite but until we know exactly who that is, its impossible to know how this will play out.

5. Delware(TBD)-This is even more complicated than Illinois since there’s the possiblity of a place holder so Beau can run in the 2010 election. But judging by the DE GOP’s inability to field a credible candidate for the 08 Governor’s race doesn’t bode well for them here.

6. Nevada(Harry Reid)-I know a lot of people have looked at this race as potentially very competitive, but I just don’t see it. But, I have little doubt that whomever is running the NRSC will be trying hard to recruit a top-tier candidate here.

7. Wisconsin-I don’t expect this race to be competitive either. But if Scott Walker or Paul Ryan decide to run, this could turn into a very tight race.