I think my post from the the other day has been taken out of its attended context which is my fault for not being clear.
Clearly not ALL PVI will swing. Some will some won’t.
My post was meant to point out that SOME will flip, or come closer to D. NY 19, NH 1, VA 10 to name a few
What this does in my view is make it harder for the pundits and media to promote the talking points about Democrats holding so many “red” districts which is used to promote a republican point of view
NH-01 is not necessarily going to flip to Obama, not unless Obama outperforms his NATIONAL number, because that is what the PVI is. Unless Obama wins NH-01 by at least 7 points, that district will not “flip” as you put it (and by glancing at the counties which either totally or partially make up NH-01, I’d say it’s more likely that its PVI either stays at R+0 or goes to R+1).
You aren’t understaning what the PVI is, of course the district is technically “more Democratic” but that doesn’t mean it’s more Democratic compared to the country. Florida is more Democratic, in a vacuum, but compared to the country, it is slightly LESS DEMOCRATIC because Obama did 2 point worse in Florida compared to the rest of the country. You need to understand what the PVI is, and you don’t seem to understand it.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2…
The ‘county leaders’ map isn’t the one that matters, it’s ‘voting shifts’ that will affect the PVI.
Look at the district in question. Are the counties it is composed of dark blue? Then yes, the district will have a PVI that is much more D-friendly. Since Kerry lost the pop vote by 3% and Obama won by 6%, a district’s presidential topline margin would have to swing by roughly 9% or more in the Democrats favor for the PVI to swing D.
Thus, I think there are MUCH better examples than NY-19 or NH-01, such as any Indiana district, (especially 2-6, 8, 9), the New Mexico districts; Michigan 02, 03, 06; Wisconsin 06 and 08; Illinois 11 or 14; Nevada 02, the Dakotas or Montana.
Yes DMG I know what a PVI is. You seem to miss the point of my statement.
Some, but not all will move TO D or CLOSER to D.
I listed NH 1, NY 19 as examples of the possibilty. I used those two as examples because those are seats that had a PVI of R+ but if you look at the county vote you can see that movement is possible.
Do I know or have exact numbers? No. But if you look county by county as compared to the national level in certain distrcits you can get a sense of where it is going.