Author: Dave D

To Clarify

I think my post from the the other day has been taken out of its attended context which is my fault for not being clear.

Clearly not ALL PVI will swing. Some will some won’t.

My post was meant to point out that SOME will flip, or come closer to D. NY 19, NH 1, VA 10  to name a few

What this does in my view is make it harder for the pundits and media to promote the talking points about Democrats holding so many “red” districts which is used to promote a republican point of view

To Clarify

I think my post from the the other day has been taken out of its attended context which is my fault for not being clear.

Clearly not ALL PVI will swing. Some will some won’t.

My post was meant to point out that SOME will flip, or come closer to D.

What this does in my view is make it harder for the pundits and media to promote the talking points about Democrats holding so many “red” districts which is used to promote a republican point of view

PVI

PVI’s arent offically out but some numbers are available (CT, VA)

However it is easy to figure out by looking at vote by county and which county’s went for Obama or McCain.

For example. Shea Porter’s district  had a PVI of R+1 or +2

but Obama carried each district and so logically this will flip it to a D+2,3 4 etc.

NY 19th,

NV 2nd

Disctricts held by republicans or Democrats which were split down will see huge flips soon letting to rest all the talk about “red” districts

Why we won

As we all know one of the reasons Obama won was that he kept the margins close in “red” districts while running up the score in “blue” districts.

Now we are seeing not only how true that is but what it means for 2010.

Courtsey of the Scorecard in Politico:

Connecticut numbers of Presidential vote by CD for McCain:

CT-01: John Larson (D) — 33%

CT-02: Joe Courtney (D) — 39%

CT-03: Rosa DeLauro (D) — 36%

CT-04: Jim Himes (D) — 40%

CT-05: Chris Murphy (D) — 42%

What this means is McCain ran 5-8 points behind Bush in CT 2,4,5 which seats that Democrats picked up in 06 and 08.

Himes won with by only 3% (51%-48%) which means Shays ran well ahead of McCain. This would seem to indicate that voters stuck with Shays who is a relative moderate and a long term incumbent.

The possibility of turning this seat safe while dependant on many factors over the next few years is very bright

And now the even better news….

One of the keys to Obama’s victory and Democrats reclaming the majority in congress was the ability to win in red states.

Virginia, a state which has been trending Blue since 2005 is a case in point and nothing shows this more than the vote by CD

VA-01: Rob Wittman (R) – 51% (60%)

VA-02: Glenn Nye (D) – 49% (58%)

VA-03: Bobby Scott (D) – 24% (33%)

VA-04: Randy Forbes (R) – 49% (57%)

VA-05: Tom Perriello? (D) – 51% (56%)

VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R) – 57% (63%)

VA-07: Eric Cantor (R) – 53% (61%)

VA-08: Jim Moran (D) – 30% (35%)

VA-09: Rick Boucher (D) – 59% (59%)

VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) – 46% (55%)

VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D) – 42% (50%)

These numbers can be described(and have been) several factors

1.) Change in Demograhpic via migration

2.) Superior ground game

3.) Democrats at all levels were flush with money

4.) Huge increase in African American turnout

The results speak for themselves. McCain ran 8 points behind Bush in VA 11 which used to be Tom Davis’s district.

In VA 10 McCain ran 9 points behind Bush in a seat the Democrats should be targeting come 2010.

In VA 1,4,6 McCain also ran way behind Bush in 04 but still managed to win a majority.

So what does it mean?

I beleive it puts the exclamation point on the idea that Virigina is no longer a red state which is now in our camp.

I think we have a chance to pick up another seat or two(probably Wolfs) and hopefully get the House of Delegates back.

I don’t subscrube to the beleif that we will run the table or be able to unseat Cantor, Forbes or Whittman.

Those are still very conservative districts and it was a bad year for Republicans all around.

McCain won the same margin as Bush in VA 9 which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher.  The closer margins were probably due to a higher turnout by African Americans but Whitman, Forbes and Cantor won with more then 57% of the vote which indicates that although we have made great progress there are limits to what we can do

WE MAY HAVE JUST LOST MAHONEYS SEAT

ABC and the political wire are reporting that Tim Mahoney is in a bit of a scandal

(http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5997043&page=1)

On one hand he isn’t gone yet. And we have a nice majority which it would seem will only rise.

None the less no one likes losing a seat much less one we were winning in.

I don’t think this will have any national play but could spell the end for the Dems holding the seat

Is 58 the new 60?

I know its important to get to 60 or higher but can we get our political agenda moved foward by getting 58?

I think so.
Going into the 111th congress with 58 isn’t half bad indeed. Sure 60 is the clincher but even with 58 we have a chance of picking off pseudo moderates like Senator Specter (who is running for re-election if at all) and Senators Snow/Collins ( Assuming Tom Allen can’t pull it off which seems to sadly be the case. Any new polling on this one?).

S-Chip

Stem Cell

Medicare

Withdrawing from Iraq.

Between a swollen deficit and expanded majorities these might be the low hanging fruit on the tree for the first year but I certainly think we can make it happen without getting to 60.
What do you think?

Election night

Long time Swing State Project reader.

First place I turn to for my congressional information and polls.

My question is:

Will Swing state project or anyone else be listing the important house and senate races like they do for the primaries or special election?

If not is there any place that will?